Cubs, Giants Discussing Nico Hoerner Trade

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Last year 6 different players started over 150 games. Partly due to injury luck and partly because of the unplayability of our horrific bench. The second half offensive slump I’m sure was mostly variance and and maybe or maybe not a lack off days for the every day position players causing fatigue. After trading for Castro  the rest days increased. 

The great injury luck isn’t a guarantee nor is it a slam dunk they’ll replace Shaw’s production with another experimental utility bat. Shaw wouldn’t be coming off the bench cold because he’d likely see consistent playing time if he lives up to his projections. No need for in season try outs.
 

If you can get a haul for Shaw then fantastic but he’d be the main guy unlike years past and be a valuable contributor. With DH being a question mark he’ll get his opportunity against left handed pitchers with either Bregman or Suzuki moving to DH with Shaw playing third or corner outfield. 

Matt Shaw had a 93 wRC last year and very middling defensive metrics. Adam Frazier* had an 89 wRC last year and middling defensive metrics. Would you rather have a utility infielder with a bunch of team control and a 93 wRC or a utility infielder with an 89 wRC and a top 50 starting pitching prospect with a bunch of team control.

* there's like 8 other names out there with an overall similar profile, so don't get fixated here.

[Geographyhater8888]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Matt Shaw had a 93 wRC last year and very middling defensive metrics. Adam Frazier* had an 89 wRC last year and middling defensive metrics. Would you rather have a utility infielder with a bunch of team control and a 93 wRC or a utility infielder with an 89 wRC and a top 50 starting pitching prospect with a bunch of team control.

* there's like 8 other names out there with an overall similar profile, so don't get fixated here.

If his rookie year defines his career then you absolutely trade him to a sucker who thinks he’s worth a top 50 pitching prospect, who won’t help up this year either and less than Shaw. If you sign Nico to an extension you’re covered. So that leaves them with 2 less bats with team control in Cassie and Shaw. Instead you have a pitcher. 
Do you project him to be a 93 wRC+ guy for the foreseeable future? What did PCA post in 2024? 
You have many proven middling commodities vs a guy who projects to be a quality starter. I’m open to trading Shaw but to act like he’s not going to improve as a hitter and he’s interchangeable with career backups would be true if he’s a total bust. 

Edited January 24 by Geographyhater8888

[thawv]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Last year 6 different players started over 150 games. Partly due to injury luck and partly because of the unplayability of our horrific bench. The second half offensive slump I’m sure was mostly variance and and maybe or maybe not a lack off days for the every day position players causing fatigue. After trading for Castro  the rest days increased. 

The great injury luck isn’t a guarantee nor is it a slam dunk they’ll replace Shaw’s production with another experimental utility bat. Shaw wouldn’t be coming off the bench cold because he’d likely see consistent playing time if he lives up to his projections. No need for in season try outs.
 

If you can get a haul for Shaw then fantastic but he’d be the main guy unlike years past and be a valuable contributor. With DH being a question mark he’ll get his opportunity against left handed pitchers with either Bregman or Suzuki moving to DH with Shaw playing third or corner outfield. 

66 players played in 150+ games last year.  Not starting doesn't always mean injured.  

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

If his rookie year defines his career then you absolutely trade him to a sucker who thinks he’s worth a top 50 pitching prospect, who won’t help up this year either and less than Shaw. If you sign Nico to an extension you’re covered. So that leaves them with 2 less bats with team control in Cassie and Shaw. Instead you have a pitcher. 
Do you project him to be a 93 wRC+ guy for the foreseeable future? What did PCA post in 2024? 
You have many proven middling commodities vs a guy who projects to be a quality starter. I’m open to trading Shaw but to act like he’s not going to improve as a hitter and he’s interchangeable with career backups would be true if he’s a total bust. 

ZIPs gave him a pretty rose projection and I default to ZIps, which was encouraging since the rest of them weren't good.

Of course there's potential for improvement, but that doesn't come naturally with age, it comes with at bats. It's like expecting Ballesteros to develop into a good catcher while being our mostly full time DH. Taking at bats away from better players to optimize Matt Shaw's growth in an absolute win now year is doing the team a disservice. Beyond that, you're just keeping a very valuable asset on the bench in case of an extended injury. 

Worth noting that I'm all for Matt Shaw (re)learning how to play outfield, but, similar to Cam Smith, the standard expectations for offense are higher. A 100 wRC at 3B or 2B, where the league averages are 93 and 92 respectively, is very valuable. 100 wRC in left (100 wRC league average) or RF (102) is less appealing. 

[Geographyhater8888]

20 hours ago, squally1313 said:

ZIPs gave him a pretty rose projection and I default to ZIps, which was encouraging since the rest of them weren't good.

Of course there's potential for improvement, but that doesn't come naturally with age, it comes with at bats. It's like expecting Ballesteros to develop into a good catcher while being our mostly full time DH. Taking at bats away from better players to optimize Matt Shaw's growth in an absolute win now year is doing the team a disservice. Beyond that, you're just keeping a very valuable asset on the bench in case of an extended injury. 

Worth noting that I'm all for Matt Shaw (re)learning how to play outfield, but, similar to Cam Smith, the standard expectations for offense are higher. A 100 wRC at 3B or 2B, where the league averages are 93 and 92 respectively, is very valuable. 100 wRC in left (100 wRC league average) or RF (102) is less appealing. 

What am I missing here? ZIPS gives Shaw 520 PAs, Bellestaros 586 and Alcantara 473. The plate appearance distribution doesn’t add up. 

I’d rather keep him for the remainder of the season. You can always trade him next offseason for pitching or even outfield help if Nico is locked up. The Redsox wont be the only team in need of infield help. Terrible free agent class and Happ and Suzuki are off the books and in their 30’s. Unless Shaw is taking reps in preparation as a succession plan for Happ or Suzuki then outfield is another need in addition to pitching and can be moved for multiple needs. A little risky with 1 year less of control and his performance will determine his value of course and there’s no guarantee you’ll find a trade partner who can offer us a position of need.

Trading him makes the 2026 team worse no matter how slim, unless the return is someone who can help you now. 

Edited January 25 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What am I missing here? ZIPS gives Shaw 520 PAs, Bellestaros 586 and Alcantara 473. The plate appearance distribution doesn’t add up. 

Zips projects out somewhere close to a full seasons worth of PAs in the initial run, and then eventually it gets run through a depth chart/playing time model to spit out like, projected standings and what not. More important to look at the projected rate stats, and then you can math your way to whatever number of PAs you want to get to projected output. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Looks like MLBn just completely forgot to put Nico in their top 100 lol. They ranked him the 3rd best 2B. Turang is ranked the 10th best 2B and 61st on their list. 

 

This doesn't bug me. Its honestly just pathetic.