Shota chooses Free Agency

[Bertz]

He presumably gets the qualifying offer from here?

[Jason Ross]

Woaaaah. I figured he'd pick that up. 

[Tryptamine]

Hate it, absolutely hate it. Way to create a hole in your rotation. 

[Bertz]

I figured it was overwhelming likely that Shota would stick around, and that it was roughly a coin flip as to whether it'd be via his player option or via accepting a qualifying offer.  The latter is still probably how this ends, but I think clearly the odds of him leaving are higher than I expected.

If the team doesn't give him a qualifying offer, to me it says one of three things.  One fun, one boring, one sad.

Fun - The team wants to go out and grab two impact starting pitchers.  Right now the question is if they go the free agent or trade route, with an extra rotation spot you can do both

Boring - The team *really* doesn't want to go into next winter with three starting pitchers slated for free agency.  Shota's going to get replaced by someone roughly Shota caliber under control for multiple years.  Say a Mitch Keller trade or Zac Gallen in free agency

Sad - The team thinks Shota is cooked, and considers him turning down his player option a bullet dodged

[Tryptamine]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I figured it was overwhelming likely that Shota would stick around, and that it was roughly a coin flip as to whether it'd be via his player option or via accepting a qualifying offer.  The latter is still probably how this ends, but I think clearly the odds of him leaving are higher than I expected.

If the team doesn't give him a qualifying offer, to me it says one of three things.  One fun, one boring, one sad.

Fun - The team wants to go out and grab two impact starting pitchers.  Right now the question is if they go the free agent or trade route, with an extra rotation spot you can do both

Boring - The team *really* doesn't want to go into next winter with three starting pitchers slated for free agency.  Shota's going to get replaced by someone roughly Shota caliber under control for multiple years.  Say a Mitch Keller trade or Zac Gallen in free agency

Sad - The team thinks Shota is cooked, and considers him turning down his player option a bullet dodged

I think you're kidding yourself if you expect them to give out multiple large contracts. Ricketts has made it pretty clear he's not going to spend huge going into what is almost definitely going to be a lockout next year. Also, frankly I don't want them to give a huge haul in a trade until I see them make some moves in FA because right now it's not going to be easy to even get them to the level they were last year and I don't want them throwing assets at mediocrity.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I think you're kidding yourself if you expect them to give out multiple large contracts. Ricketts has made it pretty clear he's not going to spend huge going into what is almost definitely going to be a lockout next year. Also, frankly I don't want them to give a huge haul in a trade until I see them make some moves in FA because right now it's not going to be easy to even get them to the level they were last year and I don't want them throwing assets at mediocrity.

I don't expect them to give out multiple large FA pitching contracts.  I said right there I would expect them to do one FA and one trade.

[Jason Ross]

Per Levine:

Cubs and Shota could work out 2 year extension either before he accepts QO or after he declines it. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Per Levine:

Cubs and Shota could work out 2 year extension either before he accepts QO or after he declines it. 

This is something I thought about from the start. 

[Jason Ross]

Heyman; Shota expected to decline QO.

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Heyman; Shota expected to decline QO.

Yeesh thanks for the free second rounder but this does not feel like a good idea

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeesh thanks for the free second rounder but this does not feel like a good idea

Yeah, I just don't think that's a good idea on his part.