Do the St. Louis Cardinals Possess the Answer to the Cubs' Rotation Problem?

[Paul Niemiec]

Image courtesy of © Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

It's bound to be a weird offseason with a potential lockout looming for 2027. Teams may try to load up on one-year deals, while only negotiating longer term with some of the marquee names. Teams on the edge of contention may opt to sell some of their impending free agents to create some payroll flexibility for whatever happens once the new CBA is implemented. Although this ominous shade of grey will be hanging over the 2026 season, there is still going to be a World Series champion next year, so we will see over the next few months how aggressive the Chicago Cubs want to be. 

It's true that the Cubs are entering the offseason in a peculiar spot. Yes, they won their first postseason series since 2017, but it's naïve to believe a similar performance will occur next season without some major changes. In the postseason, we saw the offense continue to struggle mightily. The pitching was their strength, but there was a ton of reliance on veteran arms, especially in the bullpen. Pete Crow-Armstrong was an MVP candidate in the first half, but had a strikeout percentage over 25% during his second half power outage. Outside of a few hot streaks, Matt Shaw has not looked ready for the big leagues. Frequent clean-up hitter Carson Kelly was a journeyman, part-time backstop before breaking out at 31 years old. Then, there's Kyle Tucker. Say what you want about his Cubs tenure as a whole, but the team would not have gotten to where they did without his bat in the first half. Losing him would be a blow.

The pitching brings more reason for optimism with Cade Horton looking like one of the best young pitchers in the game paired with the eventual return of Justin Steele. The bargain-bin bullpen approach worked for them in 2025, but that should not make us forget that the same approach had serious flaws (and growing pains) when they attempted to contend in 2023 and 2024. Much like Carson Kelly, we can’t exactly bank on similar production from Matthew Boyd next year, and the club might decide to do something funky with Shota Imanaga’s funky contract, so there is real uncertainty in the rotation as well.  

It's time to propose a trade target for this offseason that will surely help add some stability to the rotation for next season. We saw the rotation fail to get addressed at the 2025 trade deadline, which is a mistake that cannot be repeated. The Cubs need at least one starter, preferably with postseason experience, that can be counted on to make 25+ starts in the regular season. There are some frontline starters hitting the market, like Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez, and the Cubs should be talking to both of them. However, the team has more recently been willing to add significant pieces to the roster by trade rather than free agency. This brings us to a name that's been in trade talks since the 2025 deadline: Sonny Gray.

The Cubs and Cardinals do not make trades with each other. The last time the Cubs and Cardinals made a trade was in 2007, when the Cubs acquired first baseman John Nelson, who never played a game in Chicago. But times are changing in St. Louis. Longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has stepped down. He has been replaced by Chaim Bloom, who gets credit for creating the “Rays Way”, which is essentially squeezing the most out of the players on the roster without dishing out large contracts to free agents. After finishing fourth in the NL Central this past season, Bloom will likely want to enter somewhat of a rebuilding phase. The roster lacks the star power equivalent to the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds. A fire sale would replenish their 19th-ranked farm system, and trading veterans like Gray, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbar, Nolan Arenado and Miles Mikolas would immediately put them on a path toward future success.

Gray is entering the final guaranteed year of a three-year, $75 million deal, with a $30 million club option for 2027. He will make $35 million in 2026, which does seem a bit high for a starter turning 36 next week who had an ERA over 4.00 this past season. However, his 3.39 FIP and 201 strikeouts in 180 2/3 innings shows that Gray is not yet running out of gas. He was one of only eight National League starters to reach the 200 strikeout milestone, his second time reaching that number in the last three years. His walk rate (5%) was in the 93rd percentile of qualified pitchers in 2025, which would mesh well with the Cubs, as the team had the lowest walk rate in baseball.

Also, he is only two years removed from finishing runner up to Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young Award, back when he was on the Twins. He won’t be asked to be a Cy Young-caliber pitcher with the Cubs, but he does have the experience to be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 in a contender's rotation. A trade for Gray would make it easier to handle the tough decision to let Imanaga walk, as he can slide right into his spot in the rotation. He can start behind Horton, and ahead of Jameson Taillon, if Steele is not ready by Opening Day. In a playoff series, if everyone is healthy, the Cubs could have five quality starters lined up in Steele, Horton, Gray, Boyd, and Taillon. With a rotation like that, there is not a significant need to chase the high price tags of Cease and Valdez. 

As for their end of the trade, St. Louis will prioritize cutting payroll as much as bringing in top prospects. Armed with payroll flexibility, especially if Imanaga is gone, the Cubs have a few different avenues they can take in order to entice the Cardinals. The Cardinals would likely be willing to eat a solid portion of that $35 million in order to gain a real prospect, but the Cubs can afford to take on most, if not all, of the contract to avoid having to part with an upper-echelon player for what will certainly be a one-year rental.

Again, history isn't on anyone's side here. The Cardinals will find plenty of suitors for Gray, and that list will only grow as their willingness to eat million of dollars does. The Cubs also have alternatives, including retaining Imanaga and hoping that they can fix his home run problems over the offseason. So, while it is going to remain a longshot for the Cubs to get a deal done with their most historic rival, it's worth exploring if the team wants to remain contenders next season while keeping their financial flexibility intact beyond the lockout.

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[Rcal10]

12 hours ago, Paul Niemiec said:

Image courtesy of © Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

It's bound to be a weird offseason with a potential lockout looming for 2027. Teams may try to load up on one-year deals, while only negotiating longer term with some of the marquee names. Teams on the edge of contention may opt to sell some of their impending free agents to create some payroll flexibility for whatever happens once the new CBA is implemented. Although this ominous shade of grey will be hanging over the 2026 season, there is still going to be a World Series champion next year, so we will see over the next few months how aggressive the Chicago Cubs want to be. 

It's true that the Cubs are entering the offseason in a peculiar spot. Yes, they won their first postseason series since 2017, but it's naïve to believe a similar performance will occur next season without some major changes. In the postseason, we saw the offense continue to struggle mightily. The pitching was their strength, but there was a ton of reliance on veteran arms, especially in the bullpen. Pete Crow-Armstrong was an MVP candidate in the first half, but had a strikeout percentage over 25% during his second half power outage. Outside of a few hot streaks, Matt Shaw has not looked ready for the big leagues. Frequent clean-up hitter Carson Kelly was a journeyman, part-time backstop before breaking out at 31 years old. Then, there's Kyle Tucker. Say what you want about his Cubs tenure as a whole, but the team would not have gotten to where they did without his bat in the first half. Losing him would be a blow.

The pitching brings more reason for optimism with Cade Horton looking like one of the best young pitchers in the game paired with the eventual return of Justin Steele. The bargain-bin bullpen approach worked for them in 2025, but that should not make us forget that the same approach had serious flaws (and growing pains) when they attempted to contend in 2023 and 2024. Much like Carson Kelly, we can’t exactly bank on similar production from Matthew Boyd next year, and the club might decide to do something funky with Shota Imanaga’s funky contract, so there is real uncertainty in the rotation as well.  

It's time to propose a trade target for this offseason that will surely help add some stability to the rotation for next season. We saw the rotation fail to get addressed at the 2025 trade deadline, which is a mistake that cannot be repeated. The Cubs need at least one starter, preferably with postseason experience, that can be counted on to make 25+ starts in the regular season. There are some frontline starters hitting the market, like Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez, and the Cubs should be talking to both of them. However, the team has more recently been willing to add significant pieces to the roster by trade rather than free agency. This brings us to a name that's been in trade talks since the 2025 deadline: Sonny Gray.

The Cubs and Cardinals do not make trades with each other. The last time the Cubs and Cardinals made a trade was in 2007, when the Cubs acquired first baseman John Nelson, who never played a game in Chicago. But times are changing in St. Louis. Longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has stepped down. He has been replaced by Chaim Bloom, who gets credit for creating the “Rays Way”, which is essentially squeezing the most out of the players on the roster without dishing out large contracts to free agents. After finishing fourth in the NL Central this past season, Bloom will likely want to enter somewhat of a rebuilding phase. The roster lacks the star power equivalent to the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds. A fire sale would replenish their 19th-ranked farm system, and trading veterans like Gray, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbar, Nolan Arenado and Miles Mikolas would immediately put them on a path toward future success.

Gray is entering the final guaranteed year of a three-year, $75 million deal, with a $30 million club option for 2027. He will make $35 million in 2026, which does seem a bit high for a starter turning 36 next week who had an ERA over 4.00 this past season. However, his 3.39 FIP and 201 strikeouts in 180 2/3 innings shows that Gray is not yet running out of gas. He was one of only eight National League starters to reach the 200 strikeout milestone, his second time reaching that number in the last three years. His walk rate (5%) was in the 93rd percentile of qualified pitchers in 2025, which would mesh well with the Cubs, as the team had the lowest walk rate in baseball.

Also, he is only two years removed from finishing runner up to Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young Award, back when he was on the Twins. He won’t be asked to be a Cy Young-caliber pitcher with the Cubs, but he does have the experience to be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 in a contender's rotation. A trade for Gray would make it easier to handle the tough decision to let Imanaga walk, as he can slide right into his spot in the rotation. He can start behind Horton, and ahead of Jameson Taillon, if Steele is not ready by Opening Day. In a playoff series, if everyone is healthy, the Cubs could have five quality starters lined up in Steele, Horton, Gray, Boyd, and Taillon. With a rotation like that, there is not a significant need to chase the high price tags of Cease and Valdez. 

As for their end of the trade, St. Louis will prioritize cutting payroll as much as bringing in top prospects. Armed with payroll flexibility, especially if Imanaga is gone, the Cubs have a few different avenues they can take in order to entice the Cardinals. The Cardinals would likely be willing to eat a solid portion of that $35 million in order to gain a real prospect, but the Cubs can afford to take on most, if not all, of the contract to avoid having to part with an upper-echelon player for what will certainly be a one-year rental.

Again, history isn't on anyone's side here. The Cardinals will find plenty of suitors for Gray, and that list will only grow as their willingness to eat million of dollars does. The Cubs also have alternatives, including retaining Imanaga and hoping that they can fix his home run problems over the offseason. So, while it is going to remain a longshot for the Cubs to get a deal done with their most historic rival, it's worth exploring if the team wants to remain contenders next season while keeping their financial flexibility intact beyond the lockout.

 

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No interest in Gray. I don’t see a scenerio where I would want him. We need to aim higher.