Question of the week: What will the 2026 Opening Day payroll look like?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Let us know your thoughts!

[Bertz]

The smart money in basically any year is "right at the luxury tax line, probably a smidge under".  That has been where payroll has defaulted under Tom.  The exceptions have been when A) the team has been bad B) right after COVID C) circa 2015ish when the team had so many pre arb salaries they practically couldn't spend more D) 2019 when they actually went way past the line.  Clearly that's a number of exceptions, but more years than not they've hugged the LT line.

For that reason I tend to think in terms of luxury tax dollars rather than 26 man payroll dollars.  But ballpark it there's usually about a $25M in difference between the two.  So $244M as the LT line, minus $25M to convert LT dollars to 26 man dollars, minus a little bit for in season moves, and I think that $200-210M range is right expectation for opening day payroll, with the team likely crossing $211M during the season.

If you want to be optimistic, I think this year makes more sense than most to blow it out a little bit.  A decent length playoff run is a good windfall, and there's incentive to try and push for another next year.  On top of that, generally if you spike payroll you're realistically committing to doing it for a few years.  Reason being there's only so many 1 year deals you can fit onto a roster.  But with 2027 payroll currently looking something like $80M, you could add 3-4 meaningful multi-year deals and still open next offseason in good shape to navigate the LT.  Again I'm not counting on it, but it feels more likely than most years.

[Stratos]

Probably another reduction LOL.

Jk.  Hard to say.  We know they probably aren't going over the cap though.

[Bull]

First tier luxury tax. But without enough commitments to put them in danger of a second year over. As the luxury tax stands now, they will go over it one year, but not two in a row. 

All bets are off with the new CBA after next year, though. 

[Rcal10]

18 hours ago, Bull said:

First tier luxury tax. But without enough commitments to put them in danger of a second year over. As the luxury tax stands now, they will go over it one year, but not two in a row. 

All bets are off with the new CBA after next year, though. 

I think this is even a bold prediction. I would be happy with them going over the first tier. They have Nico, Happ, Suzuki, Tailon and a few others that would be FA after the ‘26 season. So they can pretty easily get back under in ‘27. I would gladly accept this off season idea. 

[Bull]

22 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think this is even a bold prediction. I would be happy with them going over the first tier. They have Nico, Happ, Suzuki, Tailon and a few others that would be FA after the ‘26 season. So they can pretty easily get back under in ‘27. I would gladly accept this off season idea. 

That's been the pattern. It doesn't mean it will continue, but I think that is a reasonable expectation. CBA expiration is the wild card. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bull said:

That's been the pattern. It doesn't mean it will continue, but I think that is a reasonable expectation. CBA expiration is the wild card. 

If you mean using the CBA expiration as an excuse not to spend is the wild card, I agree. But I don’t feel there is a realistic result if the new CBA that will alter any Cubs plans or the way they do business. It could alter the highest spending and lowest spending teams operations going forward, but I don’t see how it would play into what the Cubs do every year.