Cubs' Best Path to Necessary Improvement: Sign a Slugging Third Baseman, Trade Matt Shaw for Pitching

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images, © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images, © Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

If the Cubs were as good at scouting and player development as they keep telling fans (and themselves) they are, they'd have a pretty simple offseason ahead. They'd have amassed better homegrown pitching depth, and wouldn't be so obviously starved for swing-and-miss arms. They'd be in a position to place much more trust in their young bats, from the relatively established (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya and Matt Shaw) to those still breaking slowly into the rotation (Kevin Alcántara, Moisés Ballesteros, and Owen Caissie). As things stand, though, they're in no position to compete with the Brewers in the NL Central—let alone to make a deeper push into October—without a significant talent infusion from outside the organization.

Kyle Tucker is likely to sign elsewhere this winter. He's in line for a contract in excess of $300 million, partially because of his talent and partially because other options in free agency are fairly limited this year. The Cubs will have to replace his production just to get back to where they were this past season, and while that production is more replaceable than it appeared it would be around Memorial Day, it's still one of the two titanic challenges of their offseason. The other, of course, is getting up to speed (literally, in part) with better pitching talent.

Reunions with Kyle Schwarber or Cody Bellinger are "extremely unlikely," according to league sources, and those fits would be imperfect, anyway. It's much more likely that the Cubs let Seiya Suzuki retake his place in right field in 2026, with Caissie or Ballesteros sliding in as the long side of a platoon at DH and occasionally spelling Suzuki or Ian Happ in an outfield corner. Alcántara is ready to play at least a complementary role in the majors, too, and could be both the platoon partner to Crow-Armstrong and a versatile weapon to shield Happ, Caissie and/or Ballesteros from difficult matchups.

The more plausible (and perhaps wiser, anyway) path to a major infusion of offensive value might be a splurge at the hot corner. Alex Bregman reportedly plans to opt out of the last two years of his three-year, $120-million deal (in reality, after accounting for deferrals, worth much less than that) with the Red Sox, and will be a free agent for the second year in a row. Eugenio Suárez will also be a free agent at the end of the World Series. Bregman, 31, was worth 17 runs above an average hitter in 495 plate appearances this year, according to Baseball Reference. Suárez, 34, was 20 runs above average in 657 trips to the dish. 

Either player would command a big deal this winter, though of course, Bregman's would be a much longer-term and more lucrative engagement. Age and a streakier profile will limit Suárez's earning power a bit. Nonetheless, each had a season very much in line with their prime production in 2025. Bregman's DRC+ (the holistic offensive value metric from Baseball Prospectus; 100 is average, higher is better) was 117 this year and is 116 for his career; Suárez's 2025 DRC+ of 105 is identical to his career mark. While neither is a defensive wizard at third base, each figures to stick there and acquit themselves well for a few more years.

Speaking of defensive wizards, entertaining signing either of the two star third basemen invites the question: What becomes of Matt Shaw? It's a fair one. The Cubs should, if they can, include Shaw in a package for a starting pitcher this winter. Though he made some admirable adjustments along the way, ultimately, Shaw's rookie season was a major disappointment to anyone who held out much hope for him as a hitter—and, for those of us who doubted him, a seeming confirmation. Shaw's combination of smallish stature, unorthodox mechanics and a disorganized approach left him with an 87 DRC+ for the season, and he was utterly overmatched in the postseason. He could settle in as a fine utility man without making significant strides from here, but that wouldn't help the Cubs much. He should have more upside than that, if he can develop on a steady arc into his mid-20s, but that's not guaranteed—as his extremely uneven first season showed.

Without question, Shaw still has some trade value. It's unlikely that he could headline a deal for a pitcher like Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcántara, or Pablo López, but he could be a strong second piece alongside one of the lefty bats (Caissie and Ballesteros) whom teams believe in more as hitters, or as a co-headliner with a player further from the majors. The Cubs need more power at the plate, and they need to bolster their pitching staff. To do both, in a winter with a thin free-agent class and major financial uncertainty looming for the sport, they need to be active in both the trade and free-agent markets. Dealing Shaw and signing either Bregman or Suárez would be the best way to plunge ahead.

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[Bertz]

Matt Shaw is a chode of a person, so I don't begrudge anyone for wanting to move on from him.  But from a baseball standpoint this feels extremely short sighted.

The *only* way this sequence works IMO is if Shaw is the lynchpin to a deal for some killer SP.  If his trade value is really as middling as you make it out to be, I don't see how the juice is worth the squeeze.  In making this swap you choose to get substantially older, substantially more expensive, and substantially worse on defense.  So the offensive upgrade needs to be substantial.

For whatever warts Shaw showed at the plate, and setting aside the improvements he made as the season wore on, net net he played at a 2 WAR/600 pace via Fangraphs.  And BP's only slightly more bearish at 1.8.  Bregman and Geno were both low to mid 3's depending on which flavor of WAR you prefer. 

Given the ages of everyone involved, how long before those vets fall behind Shaw?  Maybe two years?  So we're just going to give out a 9 figure contract for 2-3 extra wins over the next two years plus like 30% of the credit for whatever e.g. Edward Cabrera gives you?  I don't see it.

[KJTchoup]

Finally, someone sensible.  Cub fans need to know nothing more than Shaw, the prized rookie who played all season, batted ninth while super green fellow rookies Ballesteros and Caissie batted in the middle of the lineup when they were given starting opportunities 

 

Shaw proved himself defensively, but his bat remains significantly Triple Aish.  His inability to generate any middle right power and his almost last in the MLB exit velocity and hard hit balls percentage remain very concerning

 

While he showed second half improvement, he disappeared the last month and the playoffs which makes one wonder if opposing pitching figured out how to negate the adjustments he nade

 

 

 

 

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, KJTchoup said:

Finally, someone sensible.  Cub fans need to know nothing more than Shaw, the prized rookie who played all season, batted ninth while super green fellow rookies Ballesteros and Caissie batted in the middle of the lineup when they were given starting opportunities 

 

Shaw proved himself defensively, but his bat remains significantly Triple Aish.  His inability to generate any middle right power and his almost last in the MLB exit velocity and hard hit balls percentage remain very concerning

 

While he showed second half improvement, he disappeared the last month and the playoffs which makes one wonder if opposing pitching figured out how to negate the adjustments he nade

 

 

 

 

Matt Shaw posted a 99 wRC+ after he came back in May, and a 131 wRC+ in the second half of the season. Even his worst month in the second half was a 95 wRC+. None of that is "Triple-A" ish. His pathway with his bat literally mirrors what PCA did in 2024, it's fair to expect a similar 109 wRC+ possibility next year. As well, where he hit matters little. Who cares?

Similar players to his hard hit% and EV's (to his second half, specifically) are players such as Isaac Parades and TJ Friedl, both of whom were well above league average hitters. The special sauce there is a significant pull% and guess who turned into one of the highest pull hitters in the league? Matt Shaw. You can overcome these things with pulling the baseball, exactly what he did.

There's a lot we can say about Matt Shaw the person. As a baseball player, none of what you're suggesting here is correct. He was essentially an MLB league average hitter after returning in May, made significant progress in the second half, and did so in a way that is sustainable with a lower EV style. I'm not sure he's going to be a star baseball player, but his floor of a 2 - 2.5 fWAR player is clear and there's a pathway to be a good MLB regular.

[Clark Addison]

Shaw lost me when he bailed on the team. If somebody offers a bag of used batting practice balls for him, Jed should take it.

[squally1313]

I don't know if I agree with the overall concept, but I think the order in which you listed them is correct in the sense that the Cubs should be looking to go sign the best bat possible as soon as possible, create some redundancy wherever that bat ends up playing, and then deal from that strength. I'd prefer the bat to be in an outfielder/DH mold rather than a 3B role, because I think Shaw the player is a lot more valuable to the near term Cubs than someone like Caissie or Ballesteros. But go get someone and then let Hoyer and Hottovy find some pitching in the trade market with the then-superfluous young talent. 

[Victor Reichman]

Beyond ignorant to trade Shaw and break up the best IF defense in the Majors. He is streaky with the bat but he provided needed power after the AS Game before slipping at the very end.

This was his 1st year. He will eventually be a foundational piece like Hoerner. He has defense, speed and has pop when he is on. Want a guy like Suarez who was like 1 for 32 at the end of the year. No thanks. Shaw is inexpensive and has lots of potential.

 

[Arlen]

11 hours ago, Clark Addison said:

Shaw lost me when he bailed on the team. If somebody offers a bag of used batting practice balls for him, Jed should take it.

He was quite a friend of the deceased. 

[Arlen]

Matt Shaw is a slugging third baseman as well as stellar fielder and very good baserunner.  I like him better than deal-crazy pundits. 

[squally1313]

16 hours ago, Arlen said:

Matt Shaw is a slugging third baseman as well as stellar fielder and very good baserunner.  I like him better than deal-crazy pundits. 

Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner ended the year with the exact same slugging percentage. Is he a slugging second baseman?

[Arlen]

On 10/21/2025 at 3:07 PM, squally1313 said:

Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner ended the year with the exact same slugging percentage. Is he a slugging second baseman?

Fine question, thank you. Ask me again, next July, as his BA and OBP come up. He may be the Cubs' leadoff man.  (I'm having a challenging time understanding all the short-term interest in these pundit blogs and lack of interest in long-term investment.)

Edited October 23, 2025 by Arlen