Another Tweak for Matt Shaw May Fuel His Breakout

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

I've written fairly extensively about Matt Shaw and his mechanical changes over the course of the season, highlighting all of the little changes along the way. Shaw has changed his leg kick, his hands, how close he stands to the plate—there have been a lot! Yet, as we entered into the All-Star break, his wRC+ hovered in the low 60s. There were signs that part of this was bad luck. FanGraphs and ZiPS had him as one of the most unlucky hitters in the game, and his exit velocities were trending up. Yet, it just wasn't happening for the youngster in the "results" column. 

Part of this is just dumb luck, sure. Baseball is full of luck. But, I don't think it's all luck, and the reality is that some of this was something real and new, done by Shaw. I like expected data a lot, but there is a little flaw that expected data (such as expected batting average, or xBA) can hide: not all balls in play are created equally. If you hit a ball to your pull side, you are more likely to have that ball land for a hit than by going the other way. Expected data will treat two hits, one pulled and one opposite field, the same, as long as the exit velocity and launch angle are the same.

Therein lies the issue. Shaw was not pulling the ball well, with under 33% of his hits going to the pull side. So sometimes, Shaw was getting the benefit of the doubt from expected data, even though he probably shouldn't have. Hitters such as Isaac Parades and Cody Bellinger have made careers on pulling the baseball with relatively weak exit velocity, because they understand this aspect of the game very well. So why couldn't Shaw do this—just pull the damn ball? Well, in part, his swing was to blame.

One of the hallmarks of Shaw's setup has been a closed, toe-in stance. If you go back to my most recent article and examine each iteration of his swing, the one constant was his closed nature. Starting closed and twisted in the way Shaw does has helped him go the other way with pitches on the outer third of the plate. Staying closed is a great way to help someone get to the furthest reaches of the plate. Shaw is not someone with long levers to begin with; he's what we could deem a "short king", standing just 5-foot-10. Being on the shorter side, this setup likely was to help Shaw reach those outer-edge pitches—essentially, cheating that way by starting in a position designed to get to those pitches. There is one problem, though: when you cheat one way, you get beat another.

Note Shaw's spray chart on the 2025 season, and specifically, the blue (balls in the air). When he elevates, he almost never hits the ball to the pull side. His mechanics were geared to hit the ball in the air the other way; being closed off makes it much harder to clear your front side. In other words, when Shaw swings, he has to fight his own body. By being closed, he has to find a way to open up, and that is not easy. If you threw the ball inside to him, all he could do was stay closed off and dive into the swing. Go back to the chart and instead of looking at the blue flyballs, pay special attention to the green ground balls: almost exclusively pulled. If you threw the ball inside, all Shaw could really do was dive down and over the top of these pitches. Shaw's heat map shows just how little he could do on anything inside.

In the three games leading up to the break, the Cubs (smartly) sat Shaw, giving him just a single pinch-hit look. I won't fault anyone who may have come to the conclusion that the cause of his absence from the lineup had to do with the Cubs souring on his rookie campaign, but I thought at the time it was something else. They wanted to work with Shaw on further mechanical development. If the Cubs were giving up on Shaw, he'd have been returned to Iowa, but he wasn't. By taking three days off (plus the following four days of the break), the Cubs could essentially give the rookie seven long days of work without the prying eyes of fans to feel comfortable. This wasn't the first time the Cubs had given the kid a breather before showing a new tweak; he did this right before a series in mid-June against the Brewers. It was time for more evolution. 

This brings us to Friday, July 18, as the Cubs hosted the red-hot Red Sox at Wrigley Field. Shaw was back at third, hitting in the ninth spot in the lineup. You may have missed it, because it was subtle, but there was a change; Shaw was no longer coiled and closed. Instead, his front foot was slightly open, There wasn't much time to debate if it worked or not, as the hitter wasted no time getting to show off his swing, immediately ripping a 98-mph fly ball to CF (xBA of .520) on the first pitch he saw. It was an out, but it looked good. 

The third baseman would finish the day 1-3, singling on a pitch up the middle (another 97-mph line drive, hard hit), and lining out to third base. The proof of concept was paying off right away, and you could tell a weight had been lifted from the young player when he hit that ball back through the box. Not only were his mechanics better, but he was mentally relaxed for the first time in a long while.

The Cubs wouldn't need to wait long for the breakout to continue. Shaw pinch-hit Saturday, after being left out of the starting lineup against Bryan Bello and his huge platoon splits. Once again, Shaw remained aggressive, as left-handed reliever Chris Murphy left a 1-1 splitter hanging in the middle of the zone, the rookie jumped on it, but something was different with this swing. Whereas, two weeks ago, Shaw may have spun off the ball too early (trying to clear his front side) or would have dove into the pitch resulting in a weak ground out to the Royals' shortstop, this time he was able to turn on the pitch and drive the ball out to left field, catching the Wrigley Field wind for his first home run at home on the season. It was truly a beautiful sight.

The FOX feed in this video isn't the best to highlight the changes, but thankfully, Shaw wasn't done flashing power. It took just two days for him to pull a second home run off of a left-handed hurler, this time the Royals' Noah Cameron. Cameron, in a 2-1 count, left a changeup inside. This is just objectively a bad location for that pitch; you don't want to leave that inside, you want it away from a right-handed hitter. You can see Salvador Perez expecting it on the outside corner. Shaw, however, turns on it and drives it in the air. Pay attention to his front foot pre-swing. and how Shaw is able to easily clear his front side. It's exactly what you should do to that mistake pitch. 

 

All of the tweaks prior to this one are still there. He is still closer to the plate, his hands are still up, his leg kick is still much more muted. But now, he's able to pull the ball. This last tweak is small, just inches, but in a game of inches, those matter. Shaw is clearing his own body now. I wouldn't expect his spray chart to remain so opposite-field heavy. He still can go the other way with authority; he hit a ball over 100 mph to the right side in the plate appearance directly after his home run against Boston, and hit a third home run, a 99.8-mph shot to center field, on Wednesday. But for Shaw, it's important to incorporate his pull side. That is what will take him from a hitter whom expected data likes, to someone who gets actual, real-world hits.

Let's take one more trip back in history, back to May's late-spring tilt against the Cincinnati Reds. Shaw is facing another left-handed pitcher, this time, the Reds' Nick Lodolo, The Reds starterhas Shaw in an 0-1 count, in a tie game in the fifth inning. Much like Noah Cameron, Lodolo throws an inside changeup. Admittedly, it's slightly lower than Cameron's offering, and thus, it isn't nearly as bad of a pitch (remember, inches matter). Lodolo is also a pretty good pitcher! Regardless, I think this highlights the differences; Shaw can't get to it. He tops it weakly back to the mound, and it's a harmless out. He couldn't pull the ball. He couldn't get to it.

The Shaw in the video above likely doesn't do the damage that post-All-Star-break Shaw has been doing. The guy in the last video, even if he got the same poor change Cameron offered up, is unlikely to do any damage on that pitch. We probably don't have video of a majestic, high fly ball to the left field bleachers. Instead, it probably looks a lot like that weak topper he hit against Lodolo; just another weak, futile out. 

The six games after the break have been a little up and down for the Cubs as a whole. They took a series against a surging Boston team, and dropped one to a mediocre Royals team. The Brewers have rushed by them. But it's easily the best six-game stretch Shaw has had with the Cubs. With nine hits in those six games, and three of them going over the Wrigley Field walls, things seem to be clicking for the maligned rookie. I've been trying to warn people that I thought a breakout was coming, but now I'm begging you to believe me; I think we're there. I think this is finally it. He's putting it all together; each of those little tweaks have made him a much better hitter.

I don't expect him to hit three home runs every six games moving forward, but I do think that Shaw is showing people what his skillet is truly about. He can use his speed to beat out infield hits, he can bunt for singles and he can flash more power than his body would make you believe he has. Through his struggles, the Cubs have stuck with him, and he's starting to pay off that patience. The Cubs have stuck by their young players, and have seen Pete Crow-Armstrong blossom into a star. Miguel Amaya has turned into a capable MLB catcher, and now Shaw is starting to look like the next breakout youngster. While there is still a long season to go, if the Cubs believe this is the Matt Shaw breakout, it would help them navigate the deadline next week and cut down on their needs.

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What do you think of Matt Shaw's recent games? Do you think this is the breakout? Have you noticed these changes? Let us know in the comment section below!

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[craig]

I wonder, what would be the disadvantage of having Shaw move another inch or two (or more) closer to the plate?  

Naive unsophisticated thought is that he could cover the outside corner a little bit more easily, without committing oppo so early.  And if as a result they challenged him inside a little more often, thinking he's more vulnerable, he might get more inside-half pitches that he could better pull and drive.