Evaluating Moises Ballesteros's Cup of Coffee with Chicago Cubs

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

When evaluating young players, especially in their first cup of coffee at the highest level, it's easy to want to go to a player's FanGraphs page, take a cursory look at the numbers, and come to a conclusion. Jumping over to Moises Ballesteros's page would have you see the 41 wRC+, the .226 wOBA, the negative launch angle, and the 66% ground ball rate. On the surface, that isn't good. But I think doing that ignores the nuance of the true answer, and would give you an overly simplistic view of what his first go against the world's toughest competition really was like. So, instead of burying the lead, I'll come right out with it: I thought it was a good little stint, and I'm glad Ballesteros got a chance to play in Chicago. That doesn't mean I think everything went perfectly—far from it—but that the time he spent was valuable learning experience, and some positive results were sprinkled among those rough statistics mentioned before. 

First, the good. Before even diving into the data, just by the eye test, it looked like he wasn't entirely over-matched. He looked like a rookie, sure, but he didn't look so far removed that he stuck out like a sore thumb. For comparison's sake, I thought Gage Workman (who, to be fair to him, isn't on the same level of prospect as Ballesteros) looked far more like a fish out of water when he got his smattering of chances with the Cubs. I don't want to pile on to the former Cub, but Ballesteros never looked like he was simply dominated in any appearance he had. Workman felt that way often.

Diving deeper into the numbers can help us confirm the eye test. Ballesteros made contact on 87.5% of his swings. He struck out in just 8.5% of his appearances. The bat speed was a positive. He's got a pretty quick swing, as his 72.9-mph swing would put him in the upper third of hitters in that category. 

He probably got a bit unlucky, on balance. Below is a lineout Ballesteros had in Saturday's tilt against the White Sox. White Sox starting pitcher Jonathon Cannon made a mistake on 1-2. The Cubs rookie did exactly what he should do: he hit a screamer to right field, registering an exit velocity over 100 mph. Statcast estimates the expected batting average on this at .530—a ball you probably think should land as a knock. Instead, the White Sox right fielder tracks the ball down on the run; Ballesteros is out. That's some bad luck! 

While there were some obvious positives, Ballesteros didn't just bad-luck his way to a 41 wRC+, either. Sure, it's a very small sample, and there isn't anything that I find as a massive red flag, but there are places for polish—namely, in learning how to rein in his style. He's a hitter who excels at making contact, and lots of it. He also is a hitter who swings more often than is the norm. We saw this in Iowa, as Ballesteros was in the 83rd percentile of hitters in zone-swing%, meaning he swings a lot, and in the 21st percentile of out-of-zone-swing, which also means he swings a lot. Savvy major-league pitchers can exploit this (more so than developing Triple-A pitchers), as Marlins pitcher Vicente Bellozo did during the rookie's second-ever MLB at-bat.

The situation; Moises Ballesteros strode to the plate. The score was tied, the bases were loaded, and the rookie is set to be the early-inning hero. And the crowd knew it. The Cubs DH watched the first pitch, a curveball in the dirt, to get ahead in the count; the difference between 0-1 and 1-0 is huge for a hitter. Behind in the count, Bellozo then threw a changeup up and away. It wasn't a good pitch, nor one Ballesteros should even have considered swinging at; nothing good was going to come of it. Perhaps it was nerves, excitement, whatever. He swung, and grounded into a weak double play. Inning over. Threat over. 

The moral of the story is simple: just because you can hit it doesn't mean you should hit it. A swing and a miss would have been preferable in this situation, but a combination of high-swing% and high-contact% results in a deadly twin-killing instead of having the Marlins' pitcher on the ropes. The Cubs would eventually win the game 5-4, so this didn't ultimately cost them anything, but it's a good highlight of where Ballesteros can learn. 

This wasn't exactly a one-off, and Ballesteros swung too often at pitches out of the zone. Two-thirds of his contact was made up of grounders, and a lot of that was the swing choices he made. I don't mean to harp on the kid, though. Baseball is an iterative game, and jumping to the major-league level creates a massive learning curve, but it's pointing out where things can be fixed and improved upon. When Ballesteros can be just a bit more choosy, he'll really begin to do damage. It's there. He hit a few balls on the button. But too often, he was caught out hitting weak ground balls. 

As the Cubs' prospective slugger heads back to Iowa, he should do so with his head held high. I'm sure he wishes he had picked up a few extra-base hits or come through with the bases loaded, but there was nothing egregiously bad in his first 18 chances at the highest level. For him to truly stick, he will need to use some sandpaper on the rough edges, but this isn't a unique situation. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw have had to adjust their swings, and we can see just how much that's improved the former (while the latter looks better in limited time, as well). I'm excited to see him refine his approach as he moves forward, and it doesn't have to be a sweeping change. He can still be an aggressive, high-contact hitter. He should just plan to be a bit more selective.

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What did you think of Moises Ballesteros's first little bit in Chicago? Do you think he has the bat to stick as a DH? When do you think he'll be up next? Let us know in the comments below!

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[CubinNY]

You got the morel of the story exactly right. He going to have to learn some discipline or they are going to exploit his best skill. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

You got the morel of the story exactly right. He going to have to learn some discipline or they are going to exploit his best skill. 

Yep! It's a normal learning curve for players of his ilk. Matt Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong are in a similar "high-swing-high contact" build (different enough that they're not 1:1. butt they're in that same area, IMO) as is Nico Hoerner. It's a cool skillset to have for sure! But you always want to find a way to play within yourself.

[Connor McConnor]

Some conditioning couldn't hurt.  I understand he has that sort of a frame, but he certainly appears a bit flabby.  That can't help anything.  

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, ErniesHands said:

Some conditioning couldn't hurt.  I understand he has that sort of a frame, but he certainly appears a bit flabby.  That can't help anything.  

I think we have to accept this is *probably* just what Moises Ballesteros looks like. He's been in the Cubs system since signing in 2021, so were going on four years and I doubt the Cubs haven't worked on doing to the best they can. I also suspect Ballesteros does the best he can, or at least, without knowing him, don't want to accuse him of not, ya know? He's slimmed down some. This is probably an "is what it is" situation. 

As well, many people can look one way on the outside, but still be fairly ripped. I've never see him without a shirt on, and it could be that his shape hides the progress.