As the Bullpen Struggles, Answers May be Found in Iowa

[Jason Ross]

The Cubs bullpen blew another game Monday night. It wasn't all their fault this time, but that doesn't make me feel any better about it, and it probably doesn't make you feel better. On top of that, Eli Morgan appears to be hurt. Can the team stabilize the bullpen by looking to Iowa?

Image courtesy of © David Frerker-Imagn Images

The 2025 season has been pretty fun, so far. The Cubs are playing some of the best baseball we've seen the team play since the pre-pandemic world. This has resulted in a winning record against some of the best teams in baseball halfway through April.

However, the fact that they're enjoyable doesn't mean everything has been perfect. The offense has been great, and the starting pitching has been pretty good (most days). Unfortunately, at times, the bullpen feels like it exists for the sole purpose of ruining the first six innings. Not every performance from the relievers has been bad, but overall, it's been the Cubs' biggest weakness to date. We can "woulda-coulda-shoulda" all we want, but no time machine exists to offer more money to Tanner Scott—and the Cubs offered him more than the Dodgers did, anyway, so who knows if it would have helped? Instead, looking internally for fixes, ways to shuffle things around, and solutions is the best we can do.

Enter: Iowa. The Chicago Cubs have one of the deepest pools of prospects at their Triple-A level. While many of these prospects are of the offensive variety (Kevin Alcantara, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, James Triantos) and are of no help in this regard, there are plenty of pitchers who are either ready to go now or should be soon. While I'm not sure every issue the Cubs currently have can be simply solved by waving a magical "I-Cub" wand, there are enough arms within reach to at least block much of the leakage. 

Step 1: Nate Pearson has to go work on some things. Replace him with like-for-like.
It's easy to want to drink the Nate Pearson Kool-Aid. The reliever stands 6-foot-6, throws 100 mph and looks every bit of a dominating presence on the mound. In the short time after the Cubs picked him up last year, you could see what they were hoping he would turn into full-time in 2025; a power arm capable of throwing multiple innings and helping to shorten games. In his first 26 innings in Chicago, Pearson posted an encouraging 2.73 ERA, with an underlying 3.65 xFIP to make you think it wasn't entirely smoke and mirrors.

This year's version of Pearson has not looked like that pitcher. Instead, his strikeout rate has plummeted to just 10.6%. It's not a Stuff+ issue—his Stuff+ still sits at 107 for the year—but a command issue. Pearson just cannot throw strikes, and when he does, they're bad strikes. Compare, below, his 2025 pitch locations (top) to his 2024 locations (bottom). His fastball is center-cut and his slider is hanging. He just doesn't have it right now. 

The good news for the Cubs is that he is optionable. Send him to Iowa for a bit and figure out why he cannot bury the slider, It might not be a massive fix, but the Cubs cannot keep letting him go out and struggle. The next bit of good news for the Cubs is that they have a ready-made replacement for Pearson; Daniel Palencia.

Palencia is a similar version of "stuff-over-location" to what Pearson is, but Palencia is dominating for Iowa. Rocking an absurd 40% strikeout rate, a sub-12% walk rate, he looks absolutely on point. His Statcast page from Iowa, is gaudy. Even if you're not entirely convinced Palencia is going to be capable of maintaining this level of strike-throwing at the big-league level, he's a version of Pearson who currently looks "right". Swap the two and let the struggler go work on his mechanics, while the other can ride a wave of confidence into the Craig Counsell circle of trust.

Step 2: Eli Morgan to the IL. Bring up a second left-handed option. Should it be Luke Little, Riley Martin, or Tom Cosgrove?
Eli Morgan blew up again last night, surrendering multiple home runs. This is a major red flag for someone like Morgan, whose calling card is that he limits hard damage. Counsell seemed to confirm those fears postgame, suggesting that Morgan has been dealing with some elbow soreness and that one roster move would need to be made. I suspect that move will be a swap of Morgan for the previously mentioned Palencia, but because I've gone ahead and already made that move, I'd suggest the Cubs go with a second one, and bring up a second left-handed option.

The Cubs' only current southpaw reliever is Caleb Thielbar. The 38-year-old is coming off a rough 2024, and so far, his results have not been strong. Sporting an ERA over 7.00 and walking one out of every five hitters faced, it's clear that there are some struggles. For the lefty, there are also some encouraging signs; Stuff+ has him sitting at 111 for the year, his xERA is 3.05, and he's done a good job of avoiding the "heart" of the plate (especially with the fastball) while hitting the "shadow" (the outer portions) of the zone. 

With that said, it's time to give Counsell a second lefty for those moments. Luke Little is probably the easiest pitcher to add. Already on the 40-man and with some MLB experience under his belt, he wouldn't require much roster movement if Morgan only requires a 15-day stint. Little had three great appearances to start the year, but struggled in his most recent inning, surrendering a home run, two total earned runs, walking two and striking out none. These things happen, but you wish it didn't happen just a few days ago. Regardless, this is likely where I would go.

The Cubs could go with three other choices, though none are perfect. Tom Cosgrove, recently snagged by way of San Diego, is a left-handed option who could slot in as the "left-handed Eli Morgan". When he's right, Cosgrove uses a funky arm angle to limit hard-hit balls. Sadly for the Cubs, Cosgrove hasn't been right since 2023, and hasn't looked great in even at Triple A. 

Riley Martin is another left-handed option at Iowa. Martin has all the right stuff, a big looping curveball, a fastball that's just good enough, and a pretty impressive ability to consistently get strikeouts at any level. The issue here is twofold: the walks are worse than Little while the overall stuff is less, and he's not on the 40-man. I still think Martin will get a cup of coffee in Chicago sometime this year. I just wouldn't do it now. 

A final choice could be Jordan Wicks. Wicks is different than the previous three options, in that his strength is that he can provide length. While the Cubs would probably like to keep him stretched out in Iowa in case of another starter injury, he could slot into the Colin Rea role that was recently vacated: bullpen length arm. As a lefty, he could realistically come in and get an inning if you wanted, but he could also be used to piggyback with Rea. While this is an interesting option, Wicks's calling card is his changeup, and relievers tend not to focus on a fastball-changeup combo on short stints. Plus, I like having a ready-to-go starter if you need them in Iowa, and with Javier Assad still working his way back, Wicks is that primary option. 

In the end, I don't think Palencia and Little (or another lefty) fix everything, but if both could provide some stability and give the team options, they could start to get out of this bullpen funk. Closer Ryan Pressly looked strong in his last outing, Porter Hodge is great, Brad Keller is showing that he's useful, while both Julian Merryweather and Ethan Roberts are quickly becoming trustworthy. Tyson Miller is close to a return to the roster. Rounding the bullpen out with two more decent options could begin to fill in the cracks and stop the leaking in the 6th and 7th innings, allowing the Cubs to bridge from their solid starters' efforts to their 8th and 9th inning guys.

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Which players in Iowa do you think could help the Cubs bullpen? Would you look to promote Cade Horton? How about Jordan Wicks? Is there another arm you like? Let us know in the comments below

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[Bertz]

Palencia is a clear call.  Like you mention he is a pretty similar profile to Pearson, and on top of that he's absolutely shoving to start the year (and frankly, going back to middle of last year).

The other guy is where there's arguments in a couple directions:

- Ideally to your point it'd be a lefty.  That said Cosgrove hasn't pitched a game in the org yet, Little's looking rusty, and Martin hasn't been sharp yet.  If you feel dead set on a lefty I think Brandon Hughes is throwing the best *right now* though he requires a 40 man roster move which isn't ideal

- Keegan Thompson is, aside from Palencia, the guy getting the best results at the moment.  But as called out in the game thread his velo is down, and of course he's not a lefty

- Jordan Wicks already seemed relatively likely to come up and provide some innings in short order.  That said after going 3 on Sunday, he's probably down until the homestand

- Gavin Hollowell and Jack Neely are the only other optionable guys on the 40 man not covered above

I think the plan probably depends on what the team was already planning with Wicks.  If you are wanting to call him up on Friday, maybe you leave Pearson on the roster through the end of the road trip?  If Wicks isn't imminent, I would probably eye Thompson or Hughes on the plane with Palencia.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Palencia is a clear call.  Like you mention he is a pretty similar profile to Pearson, and on top of that he's absolutely shoving to start the year (and frankly, going back to middle of last year).

The other guy is where there's arguments in a couple directions:

- Ideally to your point it'd be a lefty.  That said Cosgrove hasn't pitched a game in the org yet, Little's looking rusty, and Martin hasn't been sharp yet.  If you feel dead set on a lefty I think Brandon Hughes is throwing the best *right now* though he requires a 40 man roster move which isn't ideal

- Keegan Thompson is, aside from Palencia, the guy getting the best results at the moment.  But as called out in the game thread his velo is down, and of course he's not a lefty

- Jordan Wicks already seemed relatively likely to come up and provide some innings in short order.  That said after going 3 on Sunday, he's probably down until the homestand

- Gavin Hollowell and Jack Neely are the only other optionable guys on the 40 man not covered above

I think the plan probably depends on what the team was already planning with Wicks.  If you are wanting to call him up on Friday, maybe you leave Pearson on the roster through the end of the road trip?  If Wicks isn't imminent, I would probably eye Thompson or Hughes on the plane with Palencia.

I kind of went the lefty route to ease off of Thielbar a bit. I think there's a good chance he's a decent option, but right now, I'm not sure you can trust him in a spot. His control hasn't been great on the curve, but the Stuff+ and xERA suggest he'll be alright. All of the lefties could be a shorter-term fix as well...maybe two weeks. Let Wicks get one or two more outings in Iowa under his belt that look more like Sunday and less like his first one, and then let him come up to be length (I think Keller can take that for now). 

It would allow you to ease Thielbar back into being the only lefty one-inning guy when Wicks came up. Just kind of trying to think of ways to keep Caleb around, but lessen the load until he gets his sea legs back.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brooks Kriske is a name if they're going for someone off the 40-man.

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Brooks Kriske is a name if they're going for someone off the 40-man.

Yeah, he's had some interesting developments. At age 31, he fits into the same category as Keegan in that I have a hard time deciding if his outcomes in Iowa are due to age/experience or due to development. He's throwing more strikes than he has in the past and the Stuff+ numbers seem to notice a jump. I'm willing to chalk some things up just to being around Zombro, though. 

[ryanrc]

Seems like we agree- your article is a mirror image of my last blog post! Great minds think alike. 

I'm bullish on Roberts, Palencia. I expect them to outpitch Pearson, Morgan. The latter two aren't fooling anyone. 

I'm iffy on Little, although if he can find control again he would outpitch Theilbar. I had expected Hughes to come up first but I'd be thrilled if little stuck. 

I wouldn't he surprised to see Thielbar traded to clear room soon. There's some teams who may take a chance on him due to his long term resume.