Whose Roster Spot Will Justin Turner Take—and Does the Answer Depend on Other Moves?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Chicago Cubs already had four or five guys for a four-man bench. Then they signed a free agent on a guaranteed deal. So: now what?

Image courtesy of © Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

By acclamation, the Cubs needed one more good bench piece to complete their roster, even before considering their lingering interest in a possible blockbuster to raise the potential level of that roster. Less often discussed, though, was what became impossible to avoid Tuesday morning. If and when the team did sign a backup first baseman or center fielder, it was going to force one of the incumbent options out of the picture. With Justin Turner signing, that's exactly the scenario now. The question is: who gets the boot?

At a glance, the obvious answer is Rule 5 Draft pick Gage Workman. Though it's easy to see why the Cubs were enamored of his tools, Workman, 25, has yet to play at the Triple-A level; has obvious flaws, including a lot of swing-and-miss in his offensive game; and needed a second look at Double-A pitching just to thrive there. He's a left-handed batter who could be a roving backup at shortstop, third base, and elsewhere, but Jon Berti had already made him halfway redundant.

Modern benches run only four players deep. The Cubs have eight full-time regulars (Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Matt Shaw, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki) and two catchers (Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly).locked into their places. That's 10 players of a total 13, and Berti makes 11. Turner brings it to 12, leaving just one place for Workman, Alexander Canario, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez, or any others trying to stake a claim.

Canario isn't an ideal fit himself, as a strikeout-prone outfielder with no real capacity to play center, but take him out of the equation, and the team doesn't have a true fourth outfielder. That roster-building foible bit the team a few years ago, when they occasionally found themselves using Trey Mancini, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni in the outfield. Kevin Alcántara figures to wait at Triple-A Iowa for his chance, but the team needs an outfielder who can at least rotate in when one of the starters is hurt or needs a day off. Canario is out of options, so if he doesn't make the club, the organization is likely to lose him on waivers. His positional value (and the fact that he's at least flashed the ability to hit at Triple A and in the bigs) sets him apart from Workman, whose flexibility on the infield is not especially important to a team that has Hoerner (capable of sliding to shortstop if Swanson is hurt), Shaw (still flexible, played all three throwing infield spots in 2024) and Berti (a true utility man with at least 100 games at each throwing spot on the dirt in his career).

Does that mean Canario will make the roster? Not by a longshot. See, there's still that thorny issue of him not being a capable center fielder. We've discussed how they could work around that, but the Cubs might also be eyeing a more traditional way to solve that problem. By the time they break camp, they might elect to drop or trade Canario, if they can shake loose any more defensively adept center fielders from some other franchise. It just means that, given how short benches are in 2025 and the offseason arrivals of Kelly, Turner, and Berti, it's very unlikely that Workman will survive and stay with the team. Unless he blows the team away in early workouts this spring, expect Workman to be offered back to the Tigers.

If the Cubs do pull off a trade for San Diego's Dylan Cease, it could involve more roster churn and open a place for Canario or Workman. Right now, though, the best version of the 2025 Cubs involves someone who isn't yet in the organization coming in to claim the final place on the team's bench. Turner's signing improves the offensive depth of the roster, but will soon force a tough decision on one of the players previously occupying his place.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

8 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Canario isn't an ideal fit himself, as a strikeout-prone outfielder with no real capacity to play center, but take him out of the equation, and the team doesn't have a true fourth outfielder. That roster-building foible bit the team a few years ago, when they occasionally found themselves using Trey Mancini, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni in the outfield. Kevin Alcántara figures to wait at Triple-A Iowa for his chance, but the team needs an outfielder who can at least rotate in when one of the starters is hurt or needs a day off. Canario is out of options, so if he doesn't make the club, the organization is likely to lose him on waivers. His positional value (and the fact that he's at least flashed the ability to hit at Triple A and in the bigs) sets him apart from Workman, whose flexibility on the infield is not especially important to a team that has Hoerner (capable of sliding to shortstop if Swanson is hurt), Shaw (still flexible, played all three throwing infield spots in 2024) and Berti (a true utility man with at least 100 games at each throwing spot on the dirt in his career).

 

The Cubs have 4 starting caliber outfielders already, and they just signed someone who can readily play DH to ensure that flexibility can be used in 4th OF-esque fashion.  That combined with the right handedness of the bench and his lack of individual progress the last 2 years means it's pretty clear Canario isn't long for the roster, imo.  Maybe Nico is 100% ready for Japan and Counsell wants a 2nd pinch hitter so he survives opening day, but he's the only player in that group who doesn't really have a role that he's first in line to be the reserve for.

[CubbyGregg]

Matthew!  Your article was spot on!  GREAT ANALYSIS!

[Matthew Trueblood]

19 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

The Cubs have 4 starting caliber outfielders already, and they just signed someone who can readily play DH to ensure that flexibility can be used in 4th OF-esque fashion.  That combined with the right handedness of the bench and his lack of individual progress the last 2 years means it's pretty clear Canario isn't long for the roster, imo.  Maybe Nico is 100% ready for Japan and Counsell wants a 2nd pinch hitter so he survives opening day, but he's the only player in that group who doesn't really have a role that he's first in line to be the reserve for.

(True if you believe in Suzuki as an outfielder at all. Which...... Anyway. This is why I wouldn't rule out that they complete the shakeup and swap out one more position player for someone who's a better fit.)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

(True if you believe in Suzuki as an outfielder at all. Which...... Anyway. This is why I wouldn't rule out that they complete the shakeup and swap out one more position player for someone who's a better fit.)

Seiya's like a -3 OF, and I really doubt they would've supplanted him in RF with anyone who wasn't a Tucker-caliber hitter. I don't think they're going to orient the bench around the idea that his glove is radioactive, and I think signing a 1B/DH instead of someone with some OF flexibility(or letting Canario have runway for that spot) is another sign in that direction.

[BKHoo]

Hey we do have a deep team now.  I like this move. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

34 minutes ago, CubbyGregg said:

Matthew!  Your article was spot on!  GREAT ANALYSIS!

Welcome to NSBB!

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Seiya's like a -3 OF, and I really doubt they would've supplanted him in RF with anyone who wasn't a Tucker-caliber hitter. I don't think they're going to orient the bench around the idea that his glove is radioactive, and I think signing a 1B/DH instead of someone with some OF flexibility(or letting Canario have runway for that spot) is another sign in that direction.

Put it this way: They had other avenues to upgrade the heart of the order this winter, and considered some, but a couple of people with a lot of pull put their foot down. They DO view Seiya's glove as radioactive, more or less. One reason why Tucker became the priority target was that they didn't view having Seiya in the outfield regularly as a viable option.

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Put it this way: They had other avenues to upgrade the heart of the order this winter, and considered some, but a couple of people with a lot of pull put their foot down. They DO view Seiya's glove as radioactive, more or less. One reason why Tucker became the priority target was that they didn't view having Seiya in the outfield regularly as a viable option.

That's really interesting from an evaluation standpoint. Publicly accessed models such as DRS and OAA certainly paint him as far from radioactive in the field. He doesn't get great OAA range rates, but seems to make up for it with his arm. I'd assume the Cubs have different defensive weights that look more heavily at his range? 

On one hand you'd want to question their modeling - but the Cubs have had a real importance on analytics (moving their scouting closer to data than human) and they've made defense an important cog in their play style over the last few years - so you also have some "appeal to authority". 

At this point I'm just spitballing and their evaluation being so different from DRS/OAA is something that seems intriguing.

[Bertz]

I'd be highly skeptical teams still have significantly better models than the public for measuring defense in the Statcast era.  Especially in the outfield.