The Cubs' Pitching Depth Means They're Even Better Than Projections Suggest. And Yet...

[Matthew Trueblood]

Although PECOTA projects the Cubs to claim the NL Central by a gaudy 10 games, it might somehow be selling them short. At the moment, they enjoy an edge even the projection system doesn't quite capture.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Ask your average Cubs fan, and they'll tell you that what the Cubs really needed this winter was a star. It's why everyone got overwhelmingly excited when the team traded for Kyle Tucker, and why they're so hungry for an Alex Bregman deal to cap off an active winter. THe perception, underpinned by at least some degree of hard truth, has been that the team is too satisfied to line up average players and count on them to slightly overperform, rather than acquiring players so good that they contribute above-average production even when they're going badly.

In truth, though, the bigger problem for the 2024 Cubs was a shortfall of depth, especially on the pitching side. They ran into trouble almost immediately, when Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon missed a chunk of time to begin the season and Kyle Hendricks stumbled so badly he nearly needed to be cut before Memorial Day. Adbert Alzolay and Héctor Neris had disappointing seasons right from the start, but the team couldn't really replace them until May and June, when they went into scramble mode and scooped up the likes of Tyson Miller and Jorge López. Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and Julian Merryweather injuries virtually finished the knockout blow; the team allowed 4.44 runs per game through the end of June.

Even a similarly disastrous loss of pitching wouldn't hit them as hard this season, though. If Steele and Taillon were to go down and Colin Rea proved to be in steep decline, the team would still be able to turn not only to Javier Assad and Ben Brown, but to Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell. As Andrew Wright wrote earlier today, the team has something like 20 legitimate contenders for seven or eight active bullpen spots. 

More importantly, it's not just a parade of warm bodies out there. The Cubs have good alternatives if and when injuries or poor performances force them to change plans. I went through the pitchers who appear on the PECOTA Depth Charts pages for each MLB team at Baseball Prospectus, and placed them all into one of two overly broad bins: Good (a projected DRA- of 100 or lower, where 100 is average and lower is better) and Bad (a projected DRA- of 101 or higher). Only one team (you'll have no trouble guessing which one) has more Good pitchers on their Depth Charts than Chicago, at 16. The Cubs are tied with the Orioles with the second-most such pitchers, and they're tied for fourth-lowest in the number of Bad pitchers slated to get some mound time.

Team	Good Pitchers	Bad Pitchers	Team	Good Pitchers	Bad Pitchers
ATL	12	10	BAL	16	7
MIA	7	15	BOS	11	11
NYM	15	13	NYY	13	10
PHI	12	11	TB	15	9
WAS	3	18	TOR	10	13
CHC	16	8	CWS	2	19
CIN	7	13	CLE	11	10
MIL	13	7	DET	12	12
PIT	7	15	KC	11	11
STL	6	17	MIN	14	9
ARI	8	13	ANA	4	18
COL	2	19	HOU	13	8
LA	18	7	SAC	8	16
SD	12	10	SEA	11	13
SF	7	14	TEX	13	10

Depth is, of course, a wonderful luxury. However, it also causes some good problems. Keeping all of the compelling arms in their organization won't be possible; the Cubs have to get some high-risk player evaluations right this spring. If they guess wrong about who will and won't stay healthy, or about who will and won't be good, they could lose that advantage in the blink of an eye, after spending the last nine months assiduously stockpiling to create it (not only trading for Miller and signing López, of course, but trading for Nate Pearson and Jack Neely during the summer; signing Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, and Caleb Thielbar this winter; and trading for squeezed-out relievers Eli Morgan, Ryan Brasier, and Ryan Pressly, from three of the best bullpens in baseball this winter). 

The obvious alternative comes with its own risks, but it might be the right move. Rather than continuing a pursuit of Bregman, maybe the Cubs' best bet is to trade multiple pieces to the Padres in exchange for Dylan Cease. Doing that would loosen their drum-tight 40-man roster and make it easier to keep the other hurlers worth keeping. It would slightly erode their depth, but it would also not only upgrade the top end of that pitching staff, but make it less likely that the depth is needed. Cease is an innings eater who both works relatively deep within games and has never missed a start in the majors. It is less important (if only slightly so) to have superb depth if Cease is at the front end of the starting rotation.

Signing Bregman and trading for Cease is still not an option. The Cubs have to choose between the two. Either would be a welcome upgrade, even though each would cost something significant. Hoyer also has to consider his depth from the position-player perspective, because despite more good depth additions on that side (Carson Kelly, Jon Berti), that group is closer to being a good player shy of being solid than is the pitching corps. Cease might be the target who offers a neater way to utilize the team's existing assets, but Bregman is the one who would address an area of greater likely need.

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[Bertz]

Interestingly, I see several teams in the not green here that feel like plausible Nico Hoerner destinations: Seattle, Boston, and Cleveland.  Maybe the Bregman path and the depth consolidation path can overlap?  Nico Hoerner, an Iowa SP, and an Iowa RP for Matt Brash and Harry Ford for instance.

[tornmeniscus]

I like the Mariners idea unfortunately the Mariners probably won't. They are maxed out on payroll and that deal likely increases their's by about 10m or so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 minutes ago, tornmeniscus said:

I like the Mariners idea unfortunately the Mariners probably won't. They are maxed out on payroll and that deal likely increases their's by about 10m or so.

Welcome to NSBB!

[ryanrc]

dude,. I am so glad you said this. 
We basically have an entire second bullpen that's as good as the first. Insane bullpen depth. 
Our rotation depth is also excellent, if you count Horton and Birdsell as midseason possibilities to dip their toe in the pool . 

[ryanrc]

On 2/6/2025 at 6:56 PM, Bertz said:

Interestingly, I see several teams in the not green here that feel like plausible Nico Hoerner destinations: Seattle, Boston, and Cleveland.  Maybe the Bregman path and the depth consolidation path can overlap?  Nico Hoerner, an Iowa SP, and an Iowa RP for Matt Brash and Harry Ford for instance.

Lets' keep it simple: Boston is the only spender here, who would love Hoerner. But I really really dont understand moving Hoerner right now. 

Common sense dictate you wait for the injuries to hit, and go for the big pitcher trade midseason, not now. BURN THE DEPTH, Dont avoid using it. Let arms get hurt. If we dont go for Bregman, keep the money necessary to pull off s midseason starter trade. That's conventional wisdom.

Nico is a top 3 second baseman in war and perhaps the best glove this year, if he's healthy. he's a bargain, and not worth moving to add 1 WAR in the rotation, and lose more than 1 WAR at second base.  

I was openminded about a preseason starter trade before we landed Brasier. Now, i think its obvious we wait for a bit. 

My theory is that if we did get Bregman, we would need to move a bullpen arm or two - Nate Pearson and Julian Merryweather would net something and clear 2.5 million, and if a deal were creatively structured and packaged, we could get more than that- it would be "good enough" to make budget without moving Hoerner. To make all that work, Bregman would take a backloaded deal.  Furthermore, even though they are both high upside guys, neither has a real history of living up to it. Their power pitching style is injury riddled, and our depth makes them expendable.

We could avoid avoid any starter worries if Cade Horton, Brandon Birdsell, Cody Poteet, or Ben Brown steps up and bumps whomever is faltering or down. Maybe one of them turns out to be the next impact pitcher. I am very high on all four of them. Horton and Birdsell could make it to #2 in the rotation at best.

Ben Brown really feels like a reliever for 2025, but in the long run could be a #3 starter with 90 pitches per appearance as his hard ceiling. He just doesn't have elite arm endurance because of his style.

I think Poteet will be slightly better than Rea by 2026, once he masters his offerings with Zombro's help. He's got a ceiling as 4th starter, whereas Rea is likely a desirable league swingman for the long run. 

I would really like Matthew Trueblood to deep analyze Poteet and give his point of view.  

Edited February 9, 2025 by ryanrc