Ranking Chicago Cubs Bullpen Ace Options After Missing Out on Tanner Scott

[Matthew Trueblood]

There's no avoiding the bitter disappointment of the latest free-agent news. The Cubs had a clear-cut top target on whom they were ready to extend themselves. Now that they've lost out on him, which is the best of their alternatives?

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

All winter, I've exhorted readers not to get anxious or angry too soon. The Cubs have already added Kyle Tucker, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Caleb Thielbar, Eli Morgan and Carson Kelly, and they fully intend to spend more money and add more talent this winter. However, the team has to come in for some mild but meaningful criticism now, after allowing the Dodgers to outbid them on Tanner Scott at four years and $72 million. As I reported early Sunday, the Cubs made an offer very much in that vein, and they have legitimate reasons for not having wanted to go any further. Still, it marks a failure of imagination and recruitment that they allowed themselves to be beaten out for Scott, who multiple members of the front office coveted.

Worse, we're now reaching the stage where the number of good ways to get better is genuinely dwindling. To this point, especially after the Tucker trade, my refrain has been to exercise emotional restraint in responding to each signing or trade that sent a talented player somewhere else, because it's not possible for any team to simply bend players or other clubs to their will, and because there were still other options available to Jed Hoyer and company. That is becoming less true now, both in terms of spending the money and prospect capital they still have at the ready and in terms of meeting their highest stated priority the rest of the winter: upgrading a bullpen that lacks a true closer.

Tomorrow, we'll discuss the best ways the team could spend the money "freed up" (if so we choose to think of it) by not landing Scott. For now, let's consider the relievers they could bring in to lead their bullpen, giving that unit much-needed stability and consistency. In fact, to clarify how I'm viewing their predicament, I'll rank the remaining options—by desirability, not likelihood.

1. Jhoan Durán, Twins RHP
By no means is Durán unavailable. He's at a similar career stage and hits a similar balance point between value and famousness to Luis Arraez, whom the team traded just two winters ago to acquire now-ace starter Pablo López. Like Arraez (whose skill set makes him delightful and appealing to fans, but whose limitations make him less than a premium player in the eyes of most front offices), Durán is a player who will get expensive quickly via the arbitration process, and whom the team feels they can readily replace.

They signed Durán to a one-year, $4.125-million deal to avoid arbitration, but that's just the first season of three for which he'll be eligible. Meanwhile, Griffin Jax (who's at the same point in his service-time progression but has not racked up as many saves, working mostly as Durán's setup man over the last two years) signed for $2.635 million and might be the better pitcher, anyway.

Minnesota traded Arraez at a time when they faced no particular payroll pressure, and in fact, they signed López to a meaty four-year extension shortly after acquiring him. Now, however, they're scrambling to trim some money and/or supplement a roster that slouched to the finish in 2024 under a restrictive ownership-imposed budgetary cutback. Moving Durán wouldn't make them much cheaper, but he would command a tremendous package of talent in a trade—or, alternatively, they could look to attach the $7.25 million they owe to Chris Paddack to Durán, still getting solid young players back and clearing about $11.5 million to deploy another way.

The Cubs should pounce on Durán, if at all possible. He's not perfect, with a fastball shape that favors armside run over any kind of lift, and he still needs to figure out what he wants to do, exactly, with the pitch he calls a "splinker" a splitter/sinker that hums in at 97 miles per hour but doesn't fall off the table like a splitter. Whatever issues one might take with the heater's shape, though, they mostly smooth out when you sit 100 and touch 103 with that pitch. 

Even better, Durán's curveball is a filthy power breaker that preys upon hitters' need to gear up for the triple-digit fastball, resulting in whiffs on well over 40% of opposing batters' swings. All told, despite occasional hiccups and the lurking worry about velocity loss or injury that comes with any high-octane reliever, Durán has a career 2.59 ERA, with a 31.9% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate. The Cubs would have to give up someone like Kevin Alcántara and a young arm like Jordan Wicks or Brandon Birdsell to get him, but if the Twins are open to it, that should be the first course they pursue. It would leave them money to spend on other things, and give them three years of a fearsome, varied back end of the bullpen.

2. Kyle Finnegan, Free Agent RHP
I wrote at length about the path Finnegan took to being non-tendered by the Nationals, last month. He's a hard thrower, but not quite at the premium velocity level where Durán sits, and his fastball has that same lack of rise—although it, too, runs fairly well to the arm side.

He hasn't been bad, but arbitration rewards saves so much that he would have been unduly expensive, in the Nationals' view. The good news is, in addition to that high-90s fastball and a splitter on which he leans heavily, he has a slider just waiting to be unlocked. He reshaped it in 2024. Now, he just needs to throw it more—much more—to make it harder for hitters to sit on either his heat or the splitter.

Sources said Finnegan's asking price and skill set hit the sweet spot for the Cubs, and that he would be the most likely direction for them to pivot after losing their bid for Scott. It's likely to be a multi-year deal, but nothing close to the term or the salary Scott ultimately extracted from the Dodgers. 

3. Carlos Estévez, Free Agent RHP
The hulking Estévez landed with the Phillies at the trade deadline, after several years in the Rockies pen and a year and a half as the Angels' closer. He throws 97, with a good, hard slider that has major movement variation from his heater and comes in just under 90 miles per hour. Few pitchers make it harder, in terms of release point, velocity and movement, for a right-handed batter to distinguish the fastball from the slider.

That's the good news. The bad news is, you can't get the guy to throw his slider as much as a modern reliever should. In almost all counts, he not only favors the fastball (that much is ok), but throws it something like two-thirds of the time. 

Of the 186 pitchers who threw at least 200 sliders in 2024, Estévez had the sixth-highest called strike probability (based on the location of each offering) on the pitch. He can throw the breaking ball for strikes, and if he threw it more often and the fastball less so, hitters would be consistently stumped. Yet, he's never really done so. 

The Cubs have already been in contact with Estévez, and figure to stay in close contact with him with Scott off the board. It's pretty clear how he can become a better version of himself. The concerns are his age, the fact that he would be changing his approach somewhat at a late juncture of his career, and the likelihood that his proven closer status pushes his price tag higher than that of Finnegan.

4. Robert Suarez, Padres RHP
This one can be covered in a bit more depth tomorrow, because taking on Suarez and his complicated, player-friendly contract would be a way to both improve the bullpen and spend some of the team's available money without giving up as much young talent as someone like Durán would cost. Like all three of the above, Suarez throws very hard, averaging 99 miles per hour with his fastball. He's a natural pronator, with a sinker and changeup as the only real complements to his four-seam heat, but he stays behind the ball well and achieves good carry on it.

It would be interesting to see if Tyler Zombro and the Cubs pitching development infrastructure could help Suarez find a "death ball"-like breaking ball to round out his repertoire, but even without that, his power profile can bully hitters, making him a very good back-end option in the pen. He and Porter Hodge would make a great duo, because their shapes and looks are so different that Craig Counsell could almost play matchups with them in the ninth innings, based on which pocket of an opposing order was coming up.

5. Kirby Yates, Free Agent RHP
This one might be lower than many would place him, and indeed, there's a case to be made for Yates to slide ahead of anyone on this list, except Durán. However, his market is well-developed, and the price tag is not to the Cubs' liking. If Yates does settle for a one-year deal, it's likely to be for more than $15 million. He also has a chance of landing a two-year deal, which is an extraordinary risk to take on a pitcher with a checkered health history and a birthday in March 1987. (I'm no happier than you are that that birth date makes a player dangerously old, but that's where we are.) If Yates does sign a straight one-year deal with a salary south of Scott's AAV of $18 million and no escalators, the Cubs will be rightfully interested, but he might not, which has to move him down the list.

6. Tommy Kahnle, Free Agent RHP
A famous changeup monster, Kahnle is that rare and fun pitcher whose change thrives not on actually changing up from the fastball (or any other pitch), but by its sheer nastiness. He throws the pitch three-quarters of the time, shamelessly spanning hitters with a pitch that dives and runs more than most pitches and to which no amount of familiarity makes hitters truly accustomed.

Kahnle isn't even playing at making the changeup a ghost of the fastball. His release point on the pitch is markedly, noticeably different than on his heater or his pedestrian slider. He just teases hitters with it, inviting them to try to adjust enough and watching them fail to do so. In this graphic (from behind the pitcher, perspective-wise), look at how far his changeup (in green) deviates from his other offerings, right out of the hand. Still, batters whiffed on the pitch 39% of the time, and when they did make contact, it tended to be soft and on the ground.

The downside with Kahnle is obvious, though. At 35, he's already relying largely on a trick pitch, and the difficulty of commanding it means he tends to walk over 10% of opponents. That's no recipe for sustained success. Instead, it's a recipe for a lot of late-game heartburn, even if he'll usually get himself out of any trouble he gets into.

7. Pete Fairbanks, Rays RHP
Not long ago, it would have been crazy to place Fairbanks this low on a list including the other names here. Now, though, he's due $3.67 million in 2025, with easily reachable incentives that could push that past $5 million even if he isn't very good—and, much more importantly, there are some signs he's heading in that direction. Fairbanks's fastball used to sit near 100 miles per hour, but it dipped over 1.5 MPH last season. His overhand breaking ball has lost much of its deception, popping out of the hand as he struggles to keep that release point high and immediately looking different to a hitter than the fastball does. He got very little chase on that pitch in 2024, and is having a harder time elevating the fastball with each passing campaign. The Rays would be happy to move him in the right deal, but if the Rays would be happy to move someone, be somewhat suspicious of them.

8. Colin Poche, Free Agent LHP
For my money, this is the floor. This is as low as the Cubs can go while defensibly expecting to have a stronger bullpen throughout 2025 than they had early in 2024. Poche throws just 91-92 MPH, but his fastball has freakish cut-ride action from an extremely high arm slot. He specializes in throwing that pitch at the top of the zone, inducing maddening, lazy fly balls from hitters and setting them up to get them out with a good-not-great slider.

Shoulder trouble sidelined Poche for part of 2024, though, and it's best to be especially wary of shoulder trouble from a pitcher who comes so directly over the top. When he came back, his velocity was down a tick, and if that pattern held, he would quickly become a mediocre middle reliever. Indeed, the Rays non-tendered him, which should tell you something. He's the guy you pick up if you have big plans for the other segments of the roster, yet.

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It's good to have options. It's better to have solutions. The Cubs have the former, but not yet the latter, when it comes to finishing off a roster that can win the division and push the titans of the NL come October. These eight hurlers would all move them in the right direction, but Scott was a preferable option to all of them. Now, it's about staying opportunistic, so they don't miss out on any more important chances.

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[Development DL]

Thanks for the leg work and melding price , with “ pitch mix fit “ .   The research and creativity are stellar. 
 

Thankful they have options .   Allows us “ closet acquisition executives” to GM at home

kudos 

 

.

 

 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Development DL said:

Thanks for the leg work and melding price , with “ pitch mix fit “ .   The research and creativity are stellar. 
 

Thankful they have options .   Allows us “ closet acquisition executives” to GM at home

kudos 

 

.

 

 

Except why not Robertson? I have to think he comes before the floor of Poche. Maybe even a few others before Poche. 

[Development DL]

Nice addendum.  Seems like they have some flexibility , in terms of creative options .