What Could A Kyle Tucker Cubs Contract Extension Look Like?

[Brandon Glick]

The Cubs got their man in a trade with the Houston Astros last week. Can they keep him in town?

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-Imagn Images

When the Cubs landed Kyle Tucker in a blockbuster trade on Friday, the general reaction was thus: “Holy s**t”. It was a narrative-changing move for the Jed Hoyer-Carter Hawkins front office, which, to this point, has been more reluctant to add stars than Orion’s Belt. The lineup fundamentally looks more complete with Tucker in tow, even if the outfield logjam will have to be resolved with a trade or two. The cost—pitcher Hayden Wesneski, third baseman Isaac Paredes, and Top-100 prospect Cam Smith—was steep, but Tucker is a bona fide superstar, which the Cubs haven’t had since the Great Chicago Fire Sale of 2021.

Here’s the issue, though: Tucker is an impending free agent. He’ll spend 2025 on the North Side, wowing fans with his well-rounded skill set, and then he’ll hit the open market. Lest you think otherwise, the open market is not a place you want your in-house stars to get to. Just ask the New York Yankees about Juan Soto, or the Los Angeles Angels about Shohei Ohtani. Or the Washington Nationals about Bryce Harper. Or… well, you get the idea.

As such, you can bet your bottom dollar Tucker is going to want to see what’s out there for him. He’ll be just 28 when he hits free agency, and assuming things don’t go completely off the rails in Chicago, his profile will include four consecutive All-Star nods, (hopefully multiple) top-five MVP finishes, and some extra hardware, like a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award.

Still: What if, against all odds, the Cubs choose to open their wallets? What would an extension for Tucker even look like?

The first bit of good news, on that front, is that Tucker is not represented by mega-agent/known extension-hater Scott Boras. His agency is Excel Sports Management, which also represents shortstop Dansby Swanson, who (you might remember) signed the largest contract (seven years, $177 million) in Hoyer’s time leading the team. Tucker also has said in the past that he’s open to an extension, though that was with the Astros, with whom he won the 2022 World Series.

The closest analog to Tucker in the last decade, both in terms of age and production, is Harper. He was 26 at the time he signed his 13-year, $330-million contract with the Phillies, though his production was far less consistent than Tucker’s. Harper won the NL MVP in an all-time great, 9.7-bWAR 2015 season, though that was sandwiched between injury-marred seasons in which he was worth just 2.5 bWAR collectively. Tucker, on the other hand, had three consecutive 5.0+ bWAR seasons before 2024, when he was worth 4.7 in 78 games played.

Now, obviously, WAR isn’t the only stat that determines a player’s value. In Harper’s first seven seasons with the Nationals, he posted a slash line of .279/.388/.512 (good for a 140 wRC+); in Tucker’s tenure in Houston, his batting line was .274/.353/.516 (139 wRC+). Those are pretty similar profiles, even if Tucker is a higher-floor, lower-ceiling player than Harper—which, in all fairness, is probably far more appealing to the Cubs, who have had an affinity for high-floor players since Hoyer took over. Of course, some of Tucker’s value also comes from his pristine glove in right field, where he’s totaled 8 Outs Above Average (OAA).

There’s been a lot of inflation in baseball since Harper signed his deal in early 2019; Soto and Ohtani have both signed contracts in excess of $700 million. Soto presents an interesting case, since his contract is the most recent data point for elite outfielders, though his age (he just turned 26), ceiling (career .989 OPS), and status as the best hitter in baseball (career 158 wRC+) was always going to ensure that his contract (15-years, $765 million, with a void option that can take it above $800 million) far outpaced anything other players could reasonably expect.

The Soto sweepstakes also illustrate the folly of letting your star players hit the market. The Yankees—the almighty “Evil Empire”—found themselves effectively outbid by their crosstown rival New York Mets. If the Cubs let Tucker hit free agency, you can be sure any of the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, or even Red Sox will be happy to outbid them for his services. Even in what appears to be a loaded class of position-player free agents in 2025, Tucker stands out. He’ll be the prize of the winter if he’s available.

Going back to Harper’s contract, Tucker probably won't get as many years given that he’ll begin his next deal at 29, but a decade-plus is a reasonable expectation for the length of his contract. The longest the Cubs have ever gone on a deal is eight years, given to both Jason Heyward ($184 million in 2015) and Alfonso Soriano ($136 million in 2006).

In terms of money, it’s exceedingly hard to project in today’s market. The Cubs would benefit from getting a deal done now—and they’ve shown a proclivity for getting extensions done around Opening Day, signing both Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner to three-year deals in 2023—lest Tucker produce an MVP campaign in 2025 and price himself way beyond the Cubs’ comfort zone. Some have questioned if Tucker could get a $40 million AAV on his next deal, and a 10-year, $400-million contract could be feasible. The AAV would be right in line with Aaron Judge’s nine-year deal, so Tucker may have to settle for slightly less per year. Judge, after all, was coming off a truly historic campaign. Regardless of the exact dollar amount, it’s going to blow anything the Cubs have done previously out of the water, and will likely at least double Heyward’s franchise-record total of $184 million. Ten years and $345 million is probably the floor, since that would narrowly edge out extensions signed by Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Cubs got their face of the franchise, swinging a trade many didn’t think this front office had the cojones to pull off. As a result, Tucker will be a star for the team in 2025. If it will last beyond then, it’ll be up to the team to complete an unprecedented extension.

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[Tryptamine]

10/400 is what I keep coming back to.

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

10/400 is what I keep coming back to.

If it includes this year I think that is a little steep. Now, starting next year I can see a possibility of $40M a year, but remember this year he is at $16M. So an extension starting now would be 10/$376. 

Edited December 17, 2024 by Rcal10

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If it includes this year I think that is a little steep. Now, starting next year I can see a possibility of $40M a year, but remember this year he is at $16M. So an extension starting now would be 10/$376. 

Yeah, it would 10/400 starting his first FA year.

[Bertz]

Yeah I think Lindor, Judge, and Seager are all good comps.  There's unfortunately not a perfect one.  But I think mid to upper 300's is probably what it takes as an extension.  If he makes it to FA, I think you're looking at low 400's.  I don't think he tops Trout or Ohtani unless he has some silly like 8-9 WAR walk year.

[Jason Ross]

A really important quote from Jed Hoyer that I think has been painfully underreported as been this:

Quote

Any of those conversations are long and thought-out,” Hoyer said. “It’s not like a meeting in October. That’s something you talk through. I don’t think anyone’s committing those kinds of dollars — not only to (Soto) but to other guys who are significant in the market — without significant lead time. You don’t pivot in the middle of December and give a guy a huge contract

(That happens when) you’ve done the due diligence. You’ve done the work. You’ve done the makeup. You’ve presented everything to ownership. The work on these things is done so far in advance to be able to justify the investment. You’re never going to make a decision like that quickly.

This quote comes right before his quote about not going after Soto. And I think it was said on purpose. It says to me that the Cubs are serious about a Tucker extension. This feels like Hoyer giving everyone a preview that they'll make a real offer to him but it'll take a bit on both sides. 

I'm hoping it works out. Kyle Tucker should be in Chicago for a while. 

[mul21]

[Rcal10]

59 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Yeah, it would 10/400 starting his first FA year.

That is probably about right then. But hopefully they can do it before he hits free agency. 

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

That is probably about right then. But hopefully they can do it before he hits free agency. 

I doubt that happens unless he's willing to agree to the deal not starting until 2026 because it would blow up the 2025 budget if they do it before FA starts at the end of the season.