IT'S HAPPENING: Cubs to Acquire Outfielder Kyle Tucker from Astros

[Matthew Trueblood]

In a move that could radically alter the future of the franchise, the Chicago Cubs have pulled the trigger on their most aggressive trade in nearly a decade. They now have the star slugger their lineup has been missing since 2016. 

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-Imagn Images

After multiple days of heavy rumors, the Cubs and Astros finally wound their way to an exchange on which they could agree. The Cubs will receive All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker, set to turn 28 in January, on the heels of four seasons in which Tucker batted .280/.362/.527, made three All-Star teams and took home both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. In return, Chicago will send third basemen Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith to Houston, surrendering the jewel acquisition of their trade deadline this past summer and their first-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft.

 

It's not a light package. The Cubs gave up Christopher Morel and two young pitchers to get Paredes, and Smith represents the least renewable resource in baseball: a first-round pick with star-level upside and some proximity to the majors. Wesneski, first acquired two and a half years ago for reliever Scott Effross, is a dynamic arm who still has a chance to mature into (if nothing more) a high-strikeout, high-leverage reliever.

However, Tucker is the perfect target at the perfect time. He's been metronomic over the first several full seasons of his career, with between 23 and 30 home runs in each of the last four campaigns—even 2024, when he missed a long stretch of the second half with a fracture in his shin.

Tucker maintains a very low strikeout rate, especially for a player with so much power. He showed the ability to accept his walks as soon as he arrived in the majors, but over the last two years, his walk rate has shot up, to a new level. He has a career OPS of .883 against right-handed pitchers and .840 against lefties, so he's essentially immune to the platoon disadvantage. He plays above-average defense in right field, and is both efficient and aggressive on the bases. He's one of the 10 best hitters in baseball, and perhaps one of the five or six best.

This is just one move, in a series. The Cubs will trade Cody Bellinger to the Yankees in a related (but separate) trade for right-handed starting pitching prospect Will Warren, but it now appears that they'll retain Seiya Suzuki, thereby cementing Tucker and Suzuki as the core of their offense. They'll further add to the roster, because with this move, they push many poker chips into the middle of the table. Being very, very good in 2025 is now essential, because Tucker is likely to depart after the season as a free agent. The Cubs can and should try hard to extend him for a decade beyond the end of 2025, but traditionally, they haven't spent the kind of money that would take.

Then again, until today, Jed Hoyer has not traditionally taken swings as big as this trade, anyway.

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[chopsx9]

I'm fine with Paredes and Hayden going.  Feel Smith is a little heavy but...what are you going to do.  It is certainly better than some of the suggestions that had multiple top 10 prospects going + Suzuki  I guess I'd prefer him going to Horton, Shaw or Cassie.  Feel that Smith has the chance to be a BEAST and while Tucker is a BEAST now - will he be here in 12 months?  What's the Yankees view on the Soto trade now? Exciting to see this bold of a move.  In any case hopefully they can sign him.  Fire it up!

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

I'm fine with Paredes and Hayden going.  Feel Smith is a little heavy but...what are you going to do.  It is certainly better than some of the suggestions that had multiple top 10 prospects going + Suzuki  I guess I'd prefer him going to Horton, Shaw or Cassie.  Feel that Smith has the chance to be a BEAST and while Tucker is a BEAST now - will he be here in 12 months?  What's the Yankees view on the Soto trade now? Exciting to see this bold of a move.  In any case hopefully they can sign him.  Fire it up!

Giving credit where credit is due, this deal never happens had Jed not got Paredes in a trade last year, and hadn’t drafted Smith. There are a lot of guys drafted before Smith or just after him who the Astros wouldnt have been interested in. Jed did a great job getting guys who other teams wanted. And now, FINALLY, the Cubs have a star player.  

[Billy62]

I like this deal. You get the slugger you feel has been missing from the line-up. You had to give up some talent to get him, but I think this deal improves the ball club. The only question is for how long. He comes in with a sticker price of $16.7 million for this year, I am not clear on what his option status is, I can only hope the team can ink him to a deal that doesn't lead to him being a free agent next year. But yes this is what we have been looking for. Still got some pieces to work out and now we have a new hole at 3B. But a nice start.