You're the Cubs' GM! Plotting My Moves: Time to Go Big or Go Home

[Jason Ross]

Frankly, I'm surprised it took the Cubs this long to hire me as the GM of the Cubs. With an impressive resume that includes being a 10+ year adult-baseball-league veteran and someone who's won countless video game World Series (spanning back to the mid-90s), bringing me in was a pretty no-brain-move in my humble opinion. So, what would I do if allowed to run the Cubs this offseason?

This series of articles is a primer for the release of our new "You're The Cubs GM!" tool, where you play the role of Jed Hoyer and build your own Cubs offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun!

As I start my fever dream of being in charge of the Chicago Cubs' 2024-2025 offseason,  I think it's important to mention a few things. First, I will use the luxury tax as my budgetary line. While I'd love for Tom Ricketts in this simulation to have deeper pockets, sadly, even this version of the owner is afraid of the Tax Man.

I also think it's important to outline my goal this offseason - I want the Chicago Cubs to comfortably make the playoffs in 2025. I don't think there's enough juice in the squeeze to get this team to juggernaut territory to compete, on paper, with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Still, I also don't want to create a team akin to what the Cubs have been recently - an 83-win team that needed some positive variance to make the dance. I'd like to raise the Cubs a standard deviation into the next tier of teams. 

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Preparing for Free Agency: 
The first matter is strengthening the 40-man roster and making hard decisions about players' futures with the organization. The team needs to become 40-man compliant entering the offseason. There's some fat to trim, and while some players have some promise, none are so good that I feel beholden to them in the organization. 

Non-tenders: Yency Almonte (RP), Colton Brewer (RP), Trey Wingenter (RP), Nick Madrigal (2B/3B), Patrick Wisdom (1B/3B/OF), Keegan Thompson (RP), Christian Bethancourt (C), Brennen Davis, (OF)

Many of these will be pretty digestible non-tenders; Almonte spent most of last year hurt and can likely be replaced; Wingenter and Brewer aren't the types you bend over backward for, though maybe if you project positively with Wingenter and you have an open space, you can keep him around, Patrick Wisdom is seemingly hitting a cliff of production, Madrigal didn't work out, and I'm looking to upgrade catcher, so while Bethancourt had a really fun run, he's a causality of circumstance.  Things get a little dicey when it comes to Thompson and Davis. I would look to resign both to MiLB deals, but I don't feel any of the two are needed on the 40-man. Thompson is probably the hardest choice here, but as he stares down his age-30 season, I don't feel beholden to him and would instead take a chance on a few other guys out there. I expect Davis to take me up on the offer, but I suspect that Thompson will look for greener grasses elsewhere. I almost non-tendered Matt Mervis, as well, but I allowed another move I made to inform my decision here.

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Pitching Wins Championships Division Titles: 
Looking at the team, my biggest goal this offseason is to consolidate wins with limited roster space. I estimate the Cubs have roughly $50 million or so to spend this offseason, and playing nice, I will save $5 million for the trade deadline. That means I've got roughly $45 million to play with and lots of prospects. The easy answer is to "throw money around in free agency." While I think Max Fried offers interesting value, I will try my best to sit out in the top tier of free agency. While I also throw my weight as hard as I can into Roki Sasaki, I realize I can't expect to win this. Instead, my first phone call is to someone in Chicago, Mr. Chris Getz of the Chicago White Sox.

Trade: Cubs trade Kevin Alcantara, Jefferson Rojas, Ronny Cruz, Alexander Canario, and Hayden Wesneski to the Chicago White Sox for Garrett Crochet and Gus Varland

Is it an overpay? Is it enough? I'm trying hard to think of this from the lens of the White Sox - they need some talent infusion into the organization as a whole. The White Sox are not a team that should be worried about carrying Alcantara on the 40-man as their 40-man swiss cheese. They also add two big-time lottery tickets in Jefferson Rojas and Ronny Cruz, who aren't anywhere near MLB-ready, but with how bad the Sox project over the next three years, they're probably fine with that. They also get two players who are capable of helping right now: Canario and Wesneski can slot in to eat innings, PAs, and have upside remaining. While I'm certainly not a major fan of Baseball Trade Values, this does give pretty equal value on both sides of the coin, and I feel, all things considered, that this is a pretty fair approximation. 

As the Cubs, I solve the biggest issue the Cubs have: a star talent. Crotchet will probably not be a 200-inning stalwart, but getting him from the high 140s to the low 170s seems reasonable, and his baseball-savant data lets you know that this guy has a "monster" written all over him. I get that for three years - so even if we're a little "injury concerned," it's not like I gave him $300 million over nine years (yet). 

Gus Varland is someone who has some interesting data and someone I'd like to get into the hands of the Cubs. His fastball is around 95 mph and has above-average velocity and movement. His secondary offerings are not particularly good right now; with that said, in 2024, one of the pitchers he was most like was Justin Steele, so I think maybe the Cubs can get something out of him. He looked pretty good in 26 IP at the MLB level last year. The White Sox probably don't care about a 28-year-old reliever, and the Cubs like guys like Varland. He felt like a neat little addition. 

Trade Jordan Wicks, James Triantos, and Jonathon Long to the Washington Nationals for Robert Garcia

This is the trade that I'm not entirely sure about, but I'm going to hope it's realistic. The Nationals don't have much starting pitching at the top of their MiLB developmental system and have a decent but not great rotation. Sure, they could go to free agency, but I think the team could use a younger, controllable starter (to replace Patrick Corbin?). They also have openings around the diamond that someone like James Triantos could fit. He could play third, he can spell Woods in center, he can spell Garcia, and he could add some DH value. The Nationals love tools, and I think Triantos is pretty toolsy. Washington doesn't have much by way of first, either, and I could see the team loving Long's bat data as a third prospect in this kind of trade. Much of this is predicated on the idea that for the Nats, a team still likely to be behind three teams in the divisional pecking order, immediate 28-year-old relievers are less valuable than three younger pieces you can continue to build around. Once again, BBTV has given me an "okay, go for it!" in terms of value, so I will accept I'm not entirely off here. Maybe a Michael Arias also slides in here to go back to the Nationals? But I think I'm pretty close.

Coming back is Robert Garcia, an absolute stud of a LHP in the bullpen. The Nationals, while young and looking to be better and better, are probably more in need of young players than a 28-year-old reliever, regardless of how good he is. The Cubs, on the other hand, need relievers. So even if they overpay a bit, they get a pre-arb reliever, which they'll have for years. He slots into the back end with Hodge, and there's a real 1-2 punch at the end. 

Cubs sign Nate Eovaldi to a 3-year, $60m deal (with an opt-out after year 2) 

I'm going to build a really good rotation, and we're going to win through pitching. Eovaldi will turn 35 at the start of 2025, but he's much of what the Cubs need: he's right-handed, he adds velocity, and while he's not a strikeout machine, he would add some oomph there. In this situation, I'm bringing him in as the #4 in a really good rotation. Eovaldi bumps Assad to the Smyly role, and the Cubs retain some depth with Ben Brown, Javier Assad, Brandon Birdsell, and Cade Horton. In this scenario, I will probably grab Triple-A depth for some players who could make starts if needed. 

Cubs sign Scott Alexander to a 1-year, $4m contract.

Scott Alexander just keeps getting by. He's a heavy GB pitcher, and the Cubs have a great infield defense, so while Alexander continues to see his ERA outpace what his xFIP says he should be capable of doing, the Cubs are set up to be a good landing place for the lefty. He would slot in as the "second lefty" and be pretty replicable mid-year if you wanted to turn back to Luke Little (barring health). I'm unsure about Little's health and how much I can count on him from jump street.

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Let's Get Offensive: 
The Cubs' first order of business on offense is to solve the catching issue. I've worked through two big trades, so I will skip making a move for Shea Langoliers or Logan O'Hoppe. I don't think either is available and even if they were, they would be quite obtainable. Instead, I'll use some of my financial ability to bring in one of the free agents.

Cubs sign Kyle Higashioka to a 2-year, $14m contract. 

The Cubs need some home runs, and it will be hard to find someone who can do that with the way the Cubs' offensive options are and where the holes are. Higashioka hit 17 home runs last year in limited time, and while he's not an offensive juggernaut, he'd add some launch angle and power to the catcher position for 80-100 games. He's not going to be a star, and he's not a great pop-time guy, but he really excels at pitch framing. In my opinion, he's the Yan Gomes of this offseason and would be a shrewd addition. 

Cubs sign Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $7m contract.

Donovan Solano solves an issue on the Cubs bench: he hits LHP really well. As Solano enters age 38, he's pretty unlikely to get a starting gig and, therefore, would probably be happy to take a decent payday on a good team. He can play some third, some first, and DH as well, giving him a healthy amount of playing time, especially against LHP. Solano could play some outfield in a perfect world, but the free-agent market in this regard is pretty empty. So, I went with the next best thing. 

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Overall Outlook and Other Odds and Ends
I like the team and think it solves the issues best. Adding Garrett Crotchet gives the Cubs a player you can see hitting the 5+ win plateau with a healthy season, while Nathan Eovaldi creates a lot of depth and length in the rotation. It's hard to expect much better production from the #5 spot than Jameson Taillon. The Cubs do see multiple prospects leave the organization, and that hurts. Kevin Alcantara (BA #5), James Triantos (BA #7), and Jefferson Rojas (BA #8) are all lost, as are former top prospects Jordan Wicks and up-and-comers such as Ronny Cruz and Jonathon Long. From an internal perspective, the Cubs have some pitchers you hope to make a jump and have some internal replacements for the others. I retain Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Cade Horton, and I still come in under budget to make a second big trade at the deadline if I want. 

Offensively, I'm asking for a few things to get me where I want to go. First, I assume the wind at Wrigley returns to "normal." Despite the added length at Wrigley, I'm putting a little hope into Isaac Parades finding his power stroke again and getting to 20-25 home runs. You hope Bellinger is more 2023 than 2024; you hope the progress from Pete Crow-Armstrong continues. It's not going to be a world-beater lineup, but it remains deep. With Bellinger opting in, there wasn't much to get creative with. Catching is still my least favorite spot on this team. Higashioka is kind of a "meh" addition, but he's a good enough short-term solution, and he allows the Cubs to go to Ballesteros if they are bullish on his defense.

I think this is a team that enters 2025 as a real challenger in the NL Central. I'd have them on paper as an upper-80s win team with some variance, which could get to the low 90s. It's imperfect and not exactly the team I'd love to have, but given the constraints of coming in under budget with ownership, with Bellinger's opting in... this is the path in which I could create the best version of the 2025 Cubs while also ensuring a deep farm system.

Opening Day Lineup:                                                       
C - Kyle Higashioka                                  
1B - Michael Busch
2B - Nico Hoerner
SS - Dansby Swanson
3B - Isaac Parades
LF - Ian Happ
CF - Pete Crow-Armstrong
RF - Cody Bellinger
DH - Seiya Suzuki

1B/3B - Donovan Solano
OF - Mike Tauchmann 
C - Miguel Amaya
INF - Luis Vazquez

Opening Day Rotation: 
Garrett Crotchet, LHP
Justin Steele, LHP
Shota Imanaga, LHP
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
Jameson Taillon, RHP

Opening Day Bullpen:
Javier Assad, RHP
Scott Alexander, LHP
Nate Pearson, RHP
Tyson Miller, RHP
Julien Merriweather, RHP
Ben Brown, RHP 
Robert Garcia, LHP
Porter Hodge, RHP 

What do you think? Do you think this team has improved enough? Are my trades realistic? Did I overpay or underpay? Let me know in the comment section below!

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[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That’d be a gift, a stunning steal

This one OTOH is a hard, hard pass:

No way am I moving Wicks for a RP, in this case not even like a tested one, and throwing in Long on top just exacerbates the cost. Personally I don’t think there will be a good Wicks trade available at all anytime soon, he’s been underrated a long time and that def won’t change off an injury shortened season. Long’s not untouchable but if this can’t get done with just him (or he and Triantos for all I’ve thought abt it) then pass

Team gets alot older with Eovaldi and Higashioka, the former brings rotation TJs to 5 btw three pitchers (two aged 33 and 36 in 2025?). I meant to comment in the catcher thread that I like Higashioka better than most C FAs, maybe my only hold up is there’s some case Jansen fits with the spirit of the offseason more? At his best he’s the most complete FA catcher available and a little younger too 

I really worked on that White Sox deal a lot. I'm not sure where to value someone like Crotchet. On one hand, he's really awesome when he's on the mound. On the other, he's yet to show being a workhorse and has a host of injury concerns in the past. As much as I hand fight BBTV at times, they had me pretty equal on value and a recent rumor was that the Dodgers' names popping up were Gavin Lux (who I'll admit being very luke warm over at this stage). Now, that's a Bob Nightengale special, but tried to use it as a jumping off point. It was a tough back and forth - I'd rather have Alcantara, Rojas, Cruz (and really, any of the young, 18/19 year old position players can be put here. I probably should have added that. Cruz was more a placeholder for a big upside young kid) and some fodder (really wasn't considering Canario and Wesneski as more than "these guys can play right now" add-ins. But I'd also accept I'm low or BBTV is leading me asunder,

It's always really hard to find out what a team would or wouldn't trade. Not only do you have to figure out what they'd want, you have to assume what other teams may or may not offer. 

[CubinNY]

I don't like the Garcia trade, but a pretty solid and realistic effort. 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't like the Garcia trade, but a pretty solid and realistic effort. 

I accept it's a lot to give up. To help make my case, I've added two RP's savant data's below. One of them is a hot RP that many are excited about this offseason and the other is Robert Garcia, who's got tons of control. It's a lot to give up, but you're getting a ton of cheap control and it fits into that "sustainability" mold. I've omitted their names, but you can find it in the spoiler below.

Totally respect those who think I'm kind of giving up the plot for something I could sign for money. And thinking back, the easy answer is probably "just sign the FA". Probably trying to be a bit too creative and put a stamp on things, but maybe the Savant data can save me a bit here.

Spoiler

The first is Robert Garcia and the second is Jeff Hoffman

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I also think that's a fair bit too much to give up in the Garcia deal.  Maybe more importantly, I don't think Jed would give up a well regarded MLB-ready SP and IF prospect for any reliever, regardless of contract or team control.  I have my doubts he would give up either Wicks or Triantos in such a trade, never mind both.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I also think that's a fair bit too much to give up in the Garcia deal.  Maybe more importantly, I don't think Jed would give up a well regarded MLB-ready SP and IF prospect for any reliever, regardless of contract or team control.  I have my doubts he would give up either Wicks or Triantos in such a trade, never mind both.

Totally fair! My only pushback is that this isn't Jed making those moves, but me,. So while I agree, I'm not sure Jed would...seemingly, I would! 

But yeah, it was a lot. I was trying really hard to find a fair middle ground and it's really hard to think through what other teams want. Fair feedback!

[Bertz]

That Garcia haul feels excessive, but the Crochet deal feels light.  I could see the holistic cost being correct-ish even if it needs to be distributed a bit differently.

Overall I think this is the rough shape I'm hoping for this offseason.  Two exciting SPs, one exciting RP, and plus some fiddling beyond that.

A few specific things I'd quibble with

- Alexander seems unnecessary after adding Garcia.  He's kind of a pure LOOGY at this point, and with the left handed reliever box checked, pretty emphatically at that, I'd assume Garcia and Little can take care of us from the left side and just look for someone on a minor league deal as a pure lefty killer

- I would probably look for more power in our Wisdom replacement than Solano provides.  Solano not being limited to 4B is nice, but it wouldn't be my priority with that roster spot.  I tend to think complimenting Busch is more important than any defensive value, especially if we have a Vazquez or some other plus defensive infielder elsewhere on the bench

Overall this would be a fun team.  That pitching staff has an opportunity to absolutely smother opposing offenses.