Chicago Cubs 2024 Offseason Top Prospects: #10 Brandon Birdsell

[Jason Ross]

The former Texas Tech righty has quickly made his way to the Triple-A Iowa Cubs. When can we expect to see Birdsell debut with the Cubs? And what might his future hold?

Image courtesy of © Mattie Neretin / USA TODAY NETWORK

We continue today looking at the Cubs' top-20 prospects (as ranked by our readers here at NSBB) by looking at Brandon Birdsell, the tenth-ranked prospect in the Chicago Cubs' minor league system. Before you read about Birdsell, don't miss our first three parts on the current state of the Cubs' MiLB system with my looks at some honorable mentions, the Cubs' Top Prospects #20-16 and the Top Prospects #15-11. 
#20 - Pedro Ramirez, INF
#19 - Luis Vazquez, INF
#18 - Michael Arias, RP
#17 - Alfonsin Rosario - OF
#16 - Drew Gray, SP
#15 - Jonathon Long, 1b
#14 - Fernando Cruz, SS
#13 - Derniche Valdez, SS
#12 - Alexander Canario, OF
#11 - Cristian Hernandez, SS

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2024 Season Recap: Brandon Birdsell 
Brandon Birdsell is not the flashiest of pitchers. He won't wow you like Cade Horton or Jaxon Wiggins will with pure stuff. He doesn't have a commanding presence on the mound like Luke Little. What he lacks in triple-digit velocity, in pure unadulterated nastiness, he (more than) makes up for with consistency, pitchability (I promise this isn't a dirty word), and deception. 

The righty started his 2024 campaign, where we last saw him in 2023, with the Tennessee Smokies, the Cubs' Double-A affiliate. During his 74 innings in the Southern League and throughout 15 appearances, Birdsell did yeoman's work, striking out just over one out of every five hitters he faced while walking only thirteen hitters in totality. While the strikeout numbers don't pop off the page, the overall workload showed that it was time for a new challenge, and in early July, the Cubs moved Birdsell to Iowa.

Upon jumping to Iowa, the crafty pitcher saw positive developments. First, the K% jumped around 5%, which is not insignificant. In Iowa, they use the MLB baseball, and seeing him immediately adapt to different stitching is a great sign that his stuff will continue to translate level over level. There was also an uptick in ground ball rates, which is never a particularly bad sign, and a reduction in HR/FB%. 

If there were a few negatives, it would be that his walk rate climbed a bit, though it remains in "very good" territory, and that his ERA bumped over 4.00. I'm a bit reticent to worry about either, especially the ERA, as Birdsell surrendered 11 of his 29 runs in two ill-fated late-season outings. Be it bad starts, mechanical flaws, or just exhaustion after a long season; we can probably ignore it as an overall concern. 

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2025 Season Outlook and Scouting Report: ETA - 2025
With his jump to Iowa in 2024, Brandon Birdsell is firmly on the cusp of making his major league debut. As a former fourth-round selection, the Cubs have done well in finding an MLB-type pitcher outside of the top two rounds (which was a common complaint of the former developmental and drafting contingent under Theo Epstein). Usually, when someone breaks out from these ranks, it's accompanied by a general belief that they will ultimately settle as a serviceable #5. Still, I think we might be sleeping a bit on Birdsell - there might be a bit more than a simple #5 starting pitching option to be had here. 

Looking at his body of work, this is not someone I'm overly concerned about when it comes to generating strikeouts. His Savant data from Iowa was pretty clean. The fastball sat at 95mph on average and generated better-than-league-average in-zone whiff, suggesting it's an above-average offering. Birdsell has a pretty good slider, as well, and sees hitters chasing it out of the zone nearly 37% of the time, which is nearly 7% better than Triple-A pitchers overall. I think there's a better-than-average strikeout potential with the righty, coupled with his lack of walks and general ability to remain around the zone. Don't project him to struggle with that. 

Birdsell excels at deception in his delivery, which is where I think his fastball and slider excel. He has a funky delivery: He stays very upright with his back and comes forward, looking as if he's going to shotput the pitch at the hitter. It feels like hitters initially struggle to pick up the ball, slowing down their reaction times. In a game of milliseconds, Birdsell uses every one to his advantage. 

I've got Birdsell as a ready-made back-end starter right now who could probably see himself playing up as a low-end-middle-rotation option if things break well for him. He could probably stand to add a pitch that would better attack left-handed hitters, as his changeup isn't anything other than a "show-me" pitch as of now, and his curveball is fine but isn't as good as his fastball/slider combination. If the lack of a real lefty-attacker doesn't limit his ceiling, his injury history might, as the righty has a few medical issues dating back to college (though he's been a clean bill of health so far with the Cubs). With that said, I do feel like he's a bit slept on. I wouldn't be surprised to see him carve out a role as a really solid fourth option on first-division types down the road if he remains on the healthy side of things. I fully expect to see him debut in 2025 with the Cubs, possibly within the first two months, if an injury were to strike one of the members of the Opening Day rotation.

What do you think of Brandon Birdsell? Do you think he'll break the glass ceiling of being a fifth starter? Let us know in the comment section below!

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[Outshined_One]

The Cubs have had an odd recent history of developing SPs who have middling profiles while coming up through the farm, and then seeing them break through those perceived ceilings.  Assad and Steele are both recent examples, but you can also point to guys like Alec Mills, Kyle Hendricks, and even Jake Arrieta among that group.  It's not a constant stream of guys, but it's enough to make you think that it will happen again.

It's why Birdsell is intriguing to me.  He's not exactly a stuff monster, but he offers a really different look from other pitchers and there's enough there to make you think he could develop enough of an arsenal to handle lefties regularly and go deep into games.

He should get a look next season once the usual injury attrition starts to hit the rotation, and I'm curious to see how he adjusts once the book gets out on him.  To be clear, I'm not expecting an ace out of him, but it would be nice to find a mid-rotation anchor for the next few years.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

The Cubs have had an odd recent history of developing SPs who have middling profiles while coming up through the farm, and then seeing them break through those perceived ceilings.  Assad and Steele are both recent examples, but you can also point to guys like Alec Mills, Kyle Hendricks, and even Jake Arrieta among that group.  It's not a constant stream of guys, but it's enough to make you think that it will happen again.

It's why Birdsell is intriguing to me.  He's not exactly a stuff monster, but he offers a really different look from other pitchers and there's enough there to make you think he could develop enough of an arsenal to handle lefties regularly and go deep into games.

He should get a look next season once the usual injury attrition starts to hit the rotation, and I'm curious to see how he adjusts once the book gets out on him.  To be clear, I'm not expecting an ace out of him, but it would be nice to find a mid-rotation anchor for the next few years.

Absolutely. Birdsell will almost assuredly not morph into a front line rotation guy. But I come back to someone like Zach Eflin and his career and think that Birdsell can do something similar. That's not a 1:1 in style or anything, just a discussion in value. Eflin took a bit of time to really find a foothold, but he's turned into a pretty good pitcher when he's been healthy and gotten chances. I don't think Birdsell will ever repeat the 2023 Eflin had, but more so his career and trajectory. Eflin feels like a guy you'd like to have in that low-end #3/high end #4 spot if you're looking to be pretty good. And I think Birdsell can do something akin to that.

[Bertz]

I tend to think that, setting aside the injury risk that exists with every pitcher, the two outcomes for Birdsell are that he stays in the rotation and wildly outpaces his prospect ranking, or similar to Wesneski platoon issues force him into relief.

The stuff is above average, the command appears above average, there have yet to be major durability or injury concerns.  You just look at that delivery and yell "reliever!" and also there's not currently an up to snuff reverse split pitch in the repertoire.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I tend to think that, setting aside the injury risk that exists with every pitcher, the two outcomes for Birdsell are that he stays in the rotation and wildly outpaces his prospect ranking, or similar to Wesneski platoon issues force him into relief.

The stuff is above average, the command appears above average, there have yet to be major durability or injury concerns.  You just look at that delivery and yell "reliever!" and also there's not currently an up to snuff reverse split pitch in the repertoire.

He's been playing with his slider, and he's making it cut in against LHH.We're talking small samples, but he crushed lefties in Iowa. His chase rate to LHH was 33.3%, and he performed better in ERA, FIP and xWOBA.  Which, I think, explains what we're seeing.