Chicago Cubs Free-Agent Relief Targets: 3 High-Upside Right-Handed Options

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs should be planning to add multiple above-average big-league relievers to their roster this winter, including making some foray into free agency. Let's consider some new names who could be on their radar.

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

In a post earlier this month, I laid out the case that the two most valuable skills a relief pitcher can have are the ability to throw strikes and the ability to miss bats within the zone. We consulted this scatter plot of pitchers to find candidates for the 2025 Cubs bullpen, but embraced the idea of pursuing certain relievers who throw a below-average number of pitches in the zone, as long as they had good changeups that might stump opposing batters.

Today, though, let's stay in the upper right quadrant of this chart. Specifically, there are three pitchers there who have shown the capacity to be elite right-handed, high-leverage relievers there, and each is likely to be looking for a multi-year deal.

Clay Holmes, Yankees
A bit of a late bloomer, Holmes struggled mightily during a tenure of a few years with the Pirates, but turned the corner quickly after the Yankees dealt for him in mid-2021. He ceded the closer's role to Luke Weaver late this season for New York, but he still has 74 saves to his name since the start of 2022. Over that same span, he has a manageable walk rate just over 8%, a strikeout rate approaching 26%, and a stellar ground-ball rate. He throws one of the heaviest sinkers in the league, along with a slider and a sweeper that make getting the ball in the air or over the wall against him exceptionally difficult.

You can find pitchers whose sinkers technically sink more than Holmes's, but almost no one's appears to sink more or has as heavy an effect for hitters. That's because he throws from a fairly high, straight-on slot, but his ball moves like that of a low-three-quarters guy. Analyst Max Bay created an app that shows how a pitcher's fastball movement varies from what would ordinarily be implied by their arm slot, to identify pitchers whose heaters have deception or life—and those who live in the dreaded "dead zone," where hitters have an easy time reading and reacting to the heater, because it moves as expected. Holmes's sinker is very much the former.

In the image above, note the box in the top left corner. Based on the way Holmes throws, Bay's model expects him to rely heavily on four-seamers, not cutters or sinkers. On the contrary, though, he's very much a sinkerballer. Bay's app also allows us to set the model's expectations differently, though, to simulate what a htter experiences even after they do their homework and come into an at-bat expecting the sinker.

Not even making a mental adjustment to expect a sinker from a high-slot righty allows hitters to properly frame up the pitch, because it has so much downward plane. Thus, we see the elite ground-ball rate for Holmes. over 64% in every season with the Yankees and just under 70% in total since the start of 2022. Meanwhile, both his sweeper and his slider miss bats at a rate of at least 37% of swings, which is how Holmes also maintains a strong strikeout rate with a fastball that does not jump over bats.

Best of all, perhaps, Holmes is only set to turn 32 next March. By the standards of this superannuated reliever class, he's fairly fresh, and might have three good years left in his arm. He'd cost a pretty penny, but should arguably be the Cubs' top offseason pitching target.

Jeff Hoffman, Phillies
Once a rumored Cubs target atop the first round of the 2014 Draft, Hoffman slid to the Blue Jays after Chicago took Kyle Schwarber instead. As a starter, things didn't work out, and he drifted to the Rockies, then the Reds. At long last, as a full-time reliever with the Phillies, he found success—and he's still only 31, a couple of months older than Holmes.

He succeeds with a pitch mix that still feels suited to a starter, in some ways, though it's enlivened by the extra velocity he's found working in short bursts. He throws both a four-seamer and a sinker that average 96 miles per hour and touch 99, with the sinker only showing up in meaningful shares against righties. He's a slider monster against those right-handed opponents, with a hellacious mid-80s offering that he can manipulate to change shape and speed. Against lefties, it's the high-riding four-seamer, the slider, and a splitter for which he shows impressive feel.

Hoffman fanned over 33% of opposing batters in 2023, and repeated the feat in 2024. This year, though, he also slashed his walk rate to 6%, taking a clear step up to dominant status. He's a very conventional relief ace of the modern game, and plenty of teams will want him, but the Cubs are always especially enamored of relievers with deeper arsenals than most of their fellows.

Emilio Pagán, Reds
Much less heralded and considerably less valuable than Holmes or Hoffman, Pagán nonetheless stands out on our chart of strike-throwing and bat-missing skills as more of an outlier than either. In three of the last four seasons, he's had an ERA over 4.40, and he missed a little over two months in the middle of this season. So, why might he eschew an $8-million payday and take a $250,000 buyout to hit the open market?

Well, Pagán is not well-suited to Cincinnati, and he'd probably have much more value elsewhere—say, in one of the league's most homer-suppressing parks, like Wrigley Field. Pagán's great vulnerability is that tendency to give up long balls, because he's the opposite of Holmes; his fastball lives in the dead zone.

That's the bad news about him. The good news matters, too, though. Pagán's heater does have good rising action, which allows him to miss some bats with it. Better still, his cutter and splitter induce plenty of whiffs, so he's run very good strikeout rates all along. He's also maintained better-than-average walk rates in each of the last two seasons, so his only major weakness is gopheritis.

Set to turn 34 next May. Pagán doesn't have a long career left ahead of him, but he could easily find a two-year deal this winter. His numbers paint him as an unreliable middle reliever, and it's certainly important to use him when there's a bit more margin for error; he's the opposite of Holmes in that way too. Given how much less he'll cost and how much upside that three-pitch mix and familiarity with the zone give him, though, he could be a fine player on whom to roll the dice. The team just needs to ensure that they add more than one solid reliever before spring training begins in February.

View full article

[Bertz]

Two things I'm really curious about with regards to the pen:

- Which guys on the market are going to insist on save opportunities?

- How long of a contract is Jed willing to give to a reliever?

With it looking increasingly like Bellinger is opting out, Jed has ~$80M to play with this winter.  Even with the other shopping to be done, I'd be comfortable allocating as much as $20M to improving the pen?  And without a Hader caliber reliever on the market, Jed can get almost any two relievers he wants with $20M.

From the players standpoint, save opportunities limit where you can double up though.  For instance, setting anything financial aside, it seems very unlikely Jed can sign both Clay Holmes and Kenley Jansen.  Both guys want the ball at the end of the game, and someone's going to give it to each of them.

From the team's POV, we know Jed hates multi-year deals to relievers.  We also got some rumors last winter that he was willing to bend on that a bit with Counsell on board.  It didn't end up happening last year, but with finances being a bit less limiting this winter it seems as likely to happen now as ever.  But if, for example, Tommy Hottovy and Craig Counsell love Clay Holmes, but he requires a 3 year deal and la Robert Stephenson, does Jed pull the trigger?

Ultimately, I'm hoping for a younger stuff-heavy guy like these three you've written up, paired with one of the older reliable vets.  Clay Holmes + Chris Martin for example.  A stuff heavy closer to step right in and be leaned on, plus a stable veteran to assist in setup with Hodge and Pearson.  Would really turn the pen into a weapon. and not be that much of a resource hog.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Even though he tends to nibble too much I would love to have Robertson back. He is about as steady as they come and still hits stretches where is is totally lights out and he doesn't cost a lot. Robertson and Scott with a flier on Minter is what I would love to see. 

[Development DL]

Such a variety of ways to accrue value . 
As a long time coach , I appreciate the specificity you bring to your conjecture . 
 

The Cubs seem to have a good track record  with multi pitch hurlers , and therefore ability to use diverse  attack plans . 
 

Informative and thought provoking per usual .