Chicago Cubs 2024 Offseason Top Prospects: #16-20

[Jason Ross]

In our first part of North Side Baseball's annual look at the Cubs' minor-league system, we discussed the State of the Union down on the farm, while also highlighting a few off-the-radar prospects to keep an eye on. Today, we will explore numbers 16-20 on our community-created prospect list. Who ended up in this range, and how does their future look?

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

As we highlighted in part one of ourseries, it was generally a good year for Cubs prospects, especially at the top tier of the system. If there's a place where prospects took a back slide, it would be in the bottom portion of the top-20 list, and sadly, that was the case for a few of the prospects in this area. It's not to say that these prospects are finished, but there are some real areas of needed polish and learning for these types to break through, not only to the top-10 but into MLB. 

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#20 - Pedro Ramirez, 2b/SS, South Bend Cubs (High-A)
Pedro Ramirez is an interesting case, and a telling foil for some players higher on the list than him. Going simply on the numbers, Ramirez had a pretty darn successful age-20 season; posting a 111 wRC+ at an age-appropriate level. Based on that information alone, you'd probably wonder how he ended up this low on the list. The sad answer is: projection, or the lack thereof.

The infielder is close to maxed out physically, with a stocky build and not a lot of height to spare, being listed at just 5-foot-8. While the wRC+ is good, it's almost all OBP driven, as the right-handed hitter hit just four home runs on the season. Where there's some hope is that Ramirez does possess better-than-average speed, tallying seven triples and 19 doubles to go along with 14 steals, so there's a little more to his game. 

Heading into 2025, the diminutive middle infielder should get a promotion to Tennessee and the Double-A Tennessee Smokies. There's little competition at that level, so he should see the lion's share of playing time. With that said, Ramirez is likely going to have to show improved power to really stick around. The Cubs aren't the most flush at the middle infield positions, but his ceiling is probably becoming a 40-man up-and-down depth piece and a potential backup. He's competing with Luis Vazquez and the recently acquired Ben Cowles for that gig long-term, and that gig really isn't a long-term one, anyway.

A good 2025 could see Ramirez get to Iowa and put himself into the thick of that position battle. A bad one could see him crowded out of the organization altogether.

#19 - Luis Vazquez, INF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
The defensive-minded shortstop Vazquez burst onto the scene in 2023 with strong offensive performances at stops in Tennessee and Iowa, putting himself into prime position as the Cubs entered 2024 to be the "next man up". While it's hard to say Vazquez had a "bad" season, as he still posted a 104 wRC+ in Iowa, it felt like a bit of a stall-out. Usually, you'd like to see prospects in their second attempt at a level show mastery with improved offensive numbers. Instead, Vazquez posted essentially similar numbers, with a bit of a decline in his walk rate and strikeout rate. While his bat was never (and will never be) his calling card, he has to show more thump to force the issue, and when the Cubs needed infielders, players such as Miles Mastrobuoni and Nick Madrigal got most of the call-ups.

Next season will be very important for Vazquez and his attempt to break into the highest level. Nico Hoerner, the clear starting option at second base, had arm surgery, which could open up a spot for someone to barge through early in 2025. While Matt Shaw could take the starting spot, Vazquez could be a real option if he has a strong Spring Training. Cowles will offer less with the glove, but if his improved plate approach sticks, his bat could blossom in a way Vazquez's likely won't. 

#18 Michael Arias, RP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
Arias has been a really cool find for the Cubs' scouting department over the last two seasons. The former Toronto Blue Jays farmhand first signed as an infielder, but has emerged on the pitching side of things and has quickly rocketed up the system, finishing his 2024 season with the Iowa Cubs. Not everything is perfect, however, as Arias really struggled for command, walking a whopping 36 hitters in 33 appearances in Triple-A. While I'd love to report improvement over his time, Arias struggled off and on with the walks all the way until the end, finishing with over 20% of his pitches being classified as "non-competitive" (those more than 18 inches from the center of the zone in any direction). Thankfully, he showed above-average in-zone whiff rates and offers a pretty funky arm angle, so not everything is lost.

Moving forward, the righthander simply has to find more consistency and hit the zone more often. He has the stuff to make life hard on righty batters, if he experiences a forward leap in terms of command and control. While these things are hard to predict, they can also come together in a hurry, and we need to look no further than Porter Hodge, another big arm who seemed to figure out it and turned into a weapon out of the Cubs' pen. 

#17 Alfonsin Rosario, OF, Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Low-A)
Rosario feels like the other side of the coin from Ramirez. With a .230 batting average, striking out well over 30% of the time, and being a bit over-aged for a prep-drafted player, you'd wonder just how a sixth-round pick a year ago would make a top-20 list. The answer, much like the one to the question we posed about Ramirez, is: projection.

Rosario, who is already listed at 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds. is a beast of a human being with some impressive raw power. In a rough hitting environment, the outfielder slugged 16 home runs; he added 18 more doubles and four triples. The man can move his frame: he added 20 steals, as well. Made even more impressive, the outfielder played primarily center field with the Pelicans—adding to the potential upside. So, despite the contact issues, Rosario finished with a cool 127 wRC+ with Myrtle Beach. 

It's likely that the big-bodied outfielder will begin 2025 up a level with South Bend. This should be a bit of a productive struggle, as he works on cleaning up the strikeouts while flashing that raw power. The Cubs have had some success with free swingers in recent years, so the hope is that the team can find a way to get Rosario to hit more baseballs, while not sacrificing power. Rosario is a lottery-ticket type. There's a version of Rosario that could remind you of Yoenis Céspedes in center field: hitting 30 home runs and stealing 15 bags, but there's also a more likely version that strikes out too much and flames out somewhere before he ever makes an MLB club. Regardless, he's one of the most fun prospects in the system to dream about.

#16 Drew Gray, SP, South Bend Cubs (High-A)
I'm not sure any prospect in the system had a more disappointing 2024 than Gray. Upon trading Jackson Ferris to the Dodgers in the deal that brought back Michael Busch, it looked to many that Gray would turn into the heir-apparent when it came to the top lefty arms in the system. Gray had struggled in the past with walks, but the hope was that he could turn some of that around as he got further away from Tommy John surgery and that he'd find some footing and show improvement. Sadly for the Cubs and Gray, the control issues seemingly got worse at the start of the season, as the lefty walked one of every five hitters he faced. This limited, especially early in the season, his ability to go deeper into games. as Gray completed more than four innings just once before the MiLB All-Star Break.

If there's a positive, it's that there was improvement post-break, with Gray dropping his walk rate to 14.3% over his last 33 innings. This allowed the lefty to go longer, achieving 5+ innings in five of his final seven outings, while having a strikeout rate over 30%. Seven starts are hard to bank on moving forward, but there was some progress, and as we know, progress isn't linear. I suspect Gray will start in South Bend, but if he can continue his strike-throwing-ways, he could see Tennessee by early to mid-May. There's still a really good starting option here, and someone who I think has mid-rotation ceiling if the strike-throwing keeps up. So while it sounds doom-and-gloom, it's probably more that we just need to continue to be patient with the lefty. Pitching development is especially quirky, these days, and his raw materials remain intriguing.

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[Jason Ross]

27 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I'll stick up for Drew Gray’s season: 28% Ks, 4% HR/FB with just 3 in 80 innings is fine work for the level and coming off TJ. Not how I’d draw it up for like the best line but fine, and from the sounds of it the velo picked up a little, finished very strong, etc etc…

Fair take! I'm not as forgiving as he displayed a solid 70+ innings and 27 appearances across 2023 and 2024 post surgery with just...atrocious walk issues, but that comes back to subjectivity and what flavors we're all looking at, so it feels like while we disagree on the subjective part there, I think we both agree that the year ended strong and we're excited about who/what he can be. I think that's far more important anyways...the future.

I quite like Gray as a prospect. Probably adds to the disappointment on my end, which is inherent biases. 

[allen6510w]

Thanks for the write ups!

Ramirez's need to develop some power ( he had a  0.097 ISO last year) despite his small frame is reinforced by the fact that he played more 3B than 2B last year and did not play SS at all. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, allen6510w said:

Thanks for the write ups!

Ramirez's need to develop some power ( he had a  0.097 ISO last year) despite his small frame is reinforced by the fact that he played more 3B than 2B last year and did not play SS at all. 

Yep. His body just doesn't work for SS. He's not your typical build for the position (short and stock versus tall and leaner) and there's little power. 

I have some hope that there's a mechanical change that can get the kid to like 10 home runs...but man, it's a squint to get there. Which sucks because there's a lot to like.

[Outshined_One]

5 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I'll stick up for Drew Gray’s season: 28% Ks, 4% HR/FB with just 3 in 80 innings is fine work for the level and coming off TJ. Not how I’d draw it up for like the best line but fine, and from the sounds of it the velo picked up a little, finished very strong, etc etc…

Gray would probably be an 8-12 range type of guy in an average farm system, so I don't think he's getting knocked with his placement at 16.  It's just that the Cubs have a lot of quality depth in their system and there are better pitching prospects ahead of him.

[Tryptamine]

I was alone in sneaking Southisene into the top 20 eh?

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I was alone in sneaking Southisene into the top 20 eh?

I didn't want to throw too many guys from the 2024 deaft on my HM list last post. But he was a name I highly considered. Really, I held off because I think Mathis is a lot closer and we have more data on him. 

With that said, if you told me Southisene found his way to Myrtle by June and posted up impressive (by a 19 year old's standards) numbers? I'd not be shocked in the slightest. I like the bit I've seen on him. There's upside there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 10/29/2024 at 3:07 PM, Tryptamine said:

I was alone in sneaking Southisene into the top 20 eh?

Nope, not the only one. He received two top-20 votes.