MLBTR Projects Cubs Arbitration Salaries

[Bertz]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html

Quote

Cubs (14)

• Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
• Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
• Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
• Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
• Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
• Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
• Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
• Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
• Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
• Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
• Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
• Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
• Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
• Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM

Paredes a bit higher than I expected but generally no surprises.  More than half these guys likely get non tendered next month.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Initial glance seems like they break down like this:

Obvious tender: Steele, Paredes, Tauchman, Pearson

Probably: Merryweather

Maybe: Wisdom, Bethancourt, Thompson

Non-Tender: Madrigal, Alzolay, Wingenter, Herget, Brewer

Possible they like one of those waiver wire relievers enough to bump them into the maybes, but even then I'm guessing everyone below Merryweather is non-tendered.

[Derwood]

Paying Madrigal $2 million should be a jailable offense

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I have never heard of Jimmy Herget therefore he does not exist.

[We Got The Whole 9]

23 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Initial glance seems like they break down like this:

Obvious tender: Steele, Paredes, Tauchman, Pearson

Probably: Merryweather

Maybe: Wisdom, Bethancourt, Thompson

Non-Tender: Madrigal, Alzolay, Wingenter, Herget, Brewer

Possible they like one of those waiver wire relievers enough to bump them into the maybes, but even then I'm guessing everyone below Merryweather is non-tendered.

What about Almonte?

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What about Almonte?

Feels like this one is heavily dependent on medicals.  Shoulders are scary but if his arm looks clean then I feel like that's a good gamble.

[Irrelevant Dude]

47 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Maybe: Wisdom, Bethancourt, Thompson

Bethancourt did a serviceable job as a backup, but isn't a guy you can pay $2.5M for when there is a need to improve the position.  Wisdom at $3M is a complete non-starter.  Regardless of his salary, he brings no value to the roster.

[Bertz]

49 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Initial glance seems like they break down like this:

Obvious tender: Steele, Paredes, Tauchman, Pearson

Probably: Merryweather

Maybe: Wisdom, Bethancourt, Thompson

Non-Tender: Madrigal, Alzolay, Wingenter, Herget, Brewer

Possible they like one of those waiver wire relievers enough to bump them into the maybes, but even then I'm guessing everyone below Merryweather is non-tendered.

If Bellinger opts out. and we go with this assumption for how arb plays out, I'm showing payroll at $157M.  Add another $5M buffer for bonuses, roster churn, etc. and you're looking at $79M under the LT.

There are various places you can quibble or reasonably make different assumptions, but for the sake of having a nice round number in our minds $80M is a good place to start.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

37 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What about Almonte?

32 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Feels like this one is heavily dependent on medicals.  Shoulders are scary but if his arm looks clean then I feel like that's a good gamble.

 

Whoops, he should go in the Maybe pile.  I think the stuff is common enough, the performance history short enough, and the salary high enough that it makes sense to non-tender and try to bring him back on a lower number/MiLB deal.  Merryweather edges him out in all 3 of those areas to tip the scales in favor of tendering.

[We Got The Whole 9]

28 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If Bellinger opts out. and we go with this assumption for how arb plays out, I'm showing payroll at $157M.  Add another $5M buffer for bonuses, roster churn, etc. and you're looking at $79M under the LT.

There are various places you can quibble or reasonably make different assumptions, but for the sake of having a nice round number in our minds $80M is a good place to start.

You got 80M and that farm - you should be able to get anything you damn well want. He'll protect Shaw, Mo, and Smith, and the rest are likely fair game. He should have a big offseason. 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

You got 80M and that farm - you should be able to get anything you damn well want. He'll protect Shaw, Mo, and Smith, and the rest are likely fair game. He should have a big offseason. 

 

 

I don’t think anyone on the farm is untouchable. If the A’s demanded Shaw in a deal for Rooker and Miller, I would be ok with Shaw going. Same with Mo and Smith. But I agree with you, between money and minor league assets, no reason the FO shouldn’t build a team that should win the central.