2024 AFL Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CubinNY]

Is Long a real prospect or is this AFL helium?

[We Got The Whole 9]

16 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Is Long a real prospect or is this AFL helium?

I mean, yes... and no? He's a RH 1B/DH who's turning 23 soon. The odds are not good. He wasn't impressive at South Bend.

 

However he smashed Double-A and showed little contact issues with 35 walks to 33 Ks. He's recorded swing speeds of 79 MPH, which is elite territory. Now his AFL line is 350/450/700 in 75 PA. 

 

There's definitely some things to really be intrigued by.

Edited November 7, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[CubinNY]

8 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I mean, yes... and no? He's a RH 1B/DH who's turning 23 soon. The odds are not good. He wasn't impressive at South Bend.

 

However he smashed Double-A and showed little contact issues with 35 walks to 33 Ks. He's recorded swing speeds of 79 MPH, which is elite territory. Now his AFL line is 350/450/700 in 75 PA. 

 

There's definitely some things to really be intrigued by.

I remember Nelson Vazquez and Canario ripping up the AFL and it gets me irrationally excited. Thanks for the context.  

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Is Long a real prospect or is this AFL helium?

So, I think the answer is both "I'm not sure?" and "No" but that's because I think there are two competing questions here. First, I don't think this is just AFL helium. Long had a really good season at Double-A once he got promoted. He had a 189 wRC+, showed impressive underlying data on top of the eye popping stats. He's going to be freshly 23 next year, so he's a little on the "older" side (but not "old" - he's just not a baby like Caissie or Ballesteros upon making Iowa), but he's getting better at each level, and not worse. Dude walked more than he struck out, and still had 7 HR's and 9 2b's in 200 PA's in Tennessee. With the EV data you can probably dream on a little more power coming out of the bat.

His AFL is just a continuation of Tennessee. He's absolutely locked in right now. And he's probably ticketed for Iowa. I'm excited for that...it'll give me access to Statcast stuff. Matt Mervis looked pretty shiny until you dug into the Statcast stuff and the flaws were pretty apparent. 

The cool thing with Long is that while he's probably more of a 1b, there's thought that he could handle LF for a while. So I'd keep an eye on that moving forward. As a LF there's more runway for what he can be. 

As of now, I'm cautiously optimistic. He's not like a top-10 guy in the system. But if you told me he was smashing Iowa with good underlying data in June? I'd probably believe you.

[Bertz]

I think you should take the under on nearly any 1B prospect, but especially one without stupid power.

But he's on the right side of the age relative to league equation, he's got great K/BB numbers, good Statcast numbers, and of course the  patience and contact numbers, and of course the actual production.

A year ago I didn't know who he was, and now he's a guy in the 10-15 range of a really good farm.  Something in the Christian Walker neighborhood feels like an imminently reasonable outcome.

[Jason Ross]

13 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Rujano’s quietly done well enough out in the bandbox. He made the Halloween start for the Solar Sox, threw 2 IP with a 3/1 K:BB in a game they won 17-4. Overall 7 IP with 11 Ks, 4 H, 1 HR, 5 BBs…Todd Johnson mentioned a velo bump? Seems more interesting than most rn 

Good to hear the velo bump. He always had a somewhat interesting profile coming out of the draft as someone you could squint and see something there with. Was always a developmental lottery ticket, but he's maintained a level of intrigue under the radar, at least my intrigue, since draft day.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

You can watch Ballesteros on TV tonight:

 

[muntjack]

It appears that it's Long in the lineup and no Ballesteros.  

Edited November 10, 2024 by muntjack
I'm guessing Moises gets in at some point.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

AFL Hot Sheet: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/arizona-fall-league-hot-sheet-cubs-breakout-prospect-headlines-week-5/

Quote

1. Jonathon Long, 1B, Cubs

Team: Mesa 

Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .400/.526/.867 (6-for-15), 6 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 4 BB, 2 SO, 0-for-0 SB

The Scoop: The Long Beach State product has carried the momentum from his breakout campaign in his first full professional season over to AFL play. Long is hitting .349/.443/.667 with six home runs. He started for the NL squad in the Fall Stars game and drove in two runs. Last week, Long had hits in all four games. He went an eye-popping 4-for-8 with two home runs and five RBIs between Tuesday and Wednesday. Long, who RoboScout identified as a sleeper early in October, enters the offseason as the Cubs prospect with the most helium for 2025. (GP)