Cubs v. Cards

[StLCardinals]

F all the Wood talk, Nomar getting beaned(is that still a topic), Ankiel and his problems. As a new member of this forum(happy first post birthday to me), lets talk baseball. Every team has its questions( the what ifs, injuries). Lets put that crap to the side. Who will win the Central. Astros will compete but fade 3/4 in to the season. It will come down to the Cubs and your friendly neighbors in MO. Cubs have a great team. Good offense, great starting pitching, and A bullpen. Cards have a great offense, good starting pitching, and a good bullpen. The reason the Cards won last year was because of the bullpen. The lineup would put up runs and the starters would produce a QS. The bullpen provides a hold, then a save. With a different pen this year, it is up for grabs. The Cubs lost some offense, but gained some in Burnitz and a full season with Nomar. (Will Dubois get an everyday chance this year?) The Cubs still do not have a proven closer or pen after the 7th or 8th. Their starting pitching potential is by far the best in the league, but will they live up to their potential. All of this may not reflect the rest of Cardinal Nation, but it is my opinion. I may have left a lot out, but I had a couple Bud Lights, and I look forward to reading Cubs' fans responses when I log on in the morning. Worse case scenario I hope its the Cards and Cubs in the NLCS.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

You're right, both teams have questions. I think the answering of those questions could decide who wins the division. I have both teams predicted in 90-95 win range.

 

Health will go a long way in deciding who wins this thing. For the most part, the Cardinals remained healthy last season. The Cubs did not. Had the injuuries been the other way around, the outcome could have been much different. That isn't to take anything away from what the Cardinals accomplished last season. It's just the truth.

 

So what do I see happening? If Wood, Prior, and Zambrano are healthy then I think it's the Cubs division. Now, some might call that a pretty big if based on the injury concerns that at least Wood and Prior bring to the table. If they aren't healthy, then I guess it becomes a crap shoot. (And use that with any double meanings you wish.)

 

I think the Cardinals have a very potent offense, but it is top heavy. While Walker, Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen form the best 2-5 anywhere, the rest (Eck, Grudz, Sanders, Molina) just aren't as formidable. I think the Cardinals will puish weak pitching. Good pitchers may be able to work through the line-up. Like the Cubs pitching, injuries could take a toll if they happen. I'm not sure the Cardinals would be able to continue winning if they experience any long term absences of Pujols or Rolen. They also should get ready to experience long term absences of Walker. I'll be surprised if he plays 100 games.

 

I am not as concerned about the Cubs pen as most are. There isn't a bonafide closer, but that doesn't mean one won't emerge. There are a lot of good arms down there with a lot of talent. One thing I've learned through years of watching baseball is that bullpens are fluid. Some relievers seem to pitch great one year, horrible another, average another, etc. With the collection of arms the Cubs have, I would not be surprised if it turns into a great pen. On the other hand, it could be bad. That's why I said you can't ignore the questions.

 

Based on everything, I'm going to predict that both teams make the playoffs. Of course, I'd be lying if I didn't say I hope that the Cubs are there and the Cardinals...are well somewhere below .500. (I don't think it will happen, but it is my hope.)

[itsonlyagame]

Worse case scenario I hope its the Cards and Cubs in the NLCS.

 

Man, a part of me would love to see the Cards and Cubs meet up in the NLCS, but I'm not so sure the other part of me could handle the tension.

 

A balanced bullpen is key - remember how the Cards fared in 2003 without the services of Izzy? That was really tough watching all of those games given up late.

[vaball]

I agree that the division will probably come down to the two teams' relative health. But even if Prior, Wood, and Zambrano stay healthy all year, I still think the Cards finish first. I really do think they are a better team than last year.

 

We lost Renteria and Womack, but I think they have been well replaced. Grudz is both an offensive and defensive upgrade over Womack, so we have upgraded at second.

 

I don't think we're losing much at leadoff except speed. All we need Eckstein to do is get on base. He has a career OBP of .347, which is almost exactly what Womack put up last year, in the best year of his career, which he would be unlikely to repeat. Eckstein was the second hardest batter to strike out last year in the AL. Walker will be batting second for a full year (fingers crossed), giving us two pretty good OBP guys up before Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds. Between Eckstein and Walker, or big three will get to see a lot of pitches before they hit.

 

Grudz will most likely take over for Renteria in the 6 or 7 spot. His career numbers are only a shade below Renteria's, so I expect similar production. And considering what a down year it was for Renteria in 2004, I don't see that lineup spot being any weaker. Molina will be an offensive upgrade over Matheny. Overall, I say our offense has improved on paper.

 

Defense has dropped at short. Will that be offset by an improvement at second? Probably not entirely, but the upgrade at 2nd will mitigate the defensive downgrade at short. I see Eckstein's defense costing the Cards maybe 7 games off last year's total.

 

Much has been said of the bullpen and it's being weaker. I agree that it is. However, I think a healthy Izzy (after his offseason hip surgery) will be a better closer than last year. At some poing we will get Lincoln back. We have two solid leftys in King and Myers. Jocketty will get a righty reliever at the deadline if he needs to. But I think again the negative effects in this area will be mitigated by an improvement in another, the starting pitching.

 

Mulder is a huge upgrade over Woody, and I anticipate a comeback for Morris. He had shoulder surgery, and the reports thus far from ST are very encouraging. Likewise for Carpenter.

 

There are plenty of question marks, most of which have to do with health. Which is why if the Cards stay healthy, I feel totally comfortable predicting 97-100 wins for them.

[imb]

Grudz was a statue that couldn't touch Womack until Womack left and he took his place.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

I agree that the division will probably come down to the two teams' relative health. But even if Prior, Wood, and Zambrano stay healthy all year, I still think the Cards finish first. I really do think they are a better team than last year.

 

We lost Renteria and Womack, but I think they have been well replaced. Grudz is both an offensive and defensive upgrade over Womack, so we have upgraded at second.

 

I don't think we're losing much at leadoff except speed. All we need Eckstein to do is get on base. He has a career OBP of .347, which is almost exactly what Womack put up last year, in the best year of his career, which he would be unlikely to repeat. Eckstein was the second hardest batter to strike out last year in the AL. Walker will be batting second for a full year (fingers crossed), giving us two pretty good OBP guys up before Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds. Between Eckstein and Walker, or big three will get to see a lot of pitches before they hit.

 

Grudz will most likely take over for Renteria in the 6 or 7 spot. His career numbers are only a shade below Renteria's, so I expect similar production. And considering what a down year it was for Renteria in 2004, I don't see that lineup spot being any weaker. Molina will be an offensive upgrade over Matheny. Overall, I say our offense has improved on paper.

 

Defense has dropped at short. Will that be offset by an improvement at second? Probably not entirely, but the upgrade at 2nd will mitigate the defensive downgrade at short. I see Eckstein's defense costing the Cards maybe 7 games off last year's total.

 

Much has been said of the bullpen and it's being weaker. I agree that it is. However, I think a healthy Izzy (after his offseason hip surgery) will be a better closer than last year. At some poing we will get Lincoln back. We have two solid leftys in King and Myers. Jocketty will get a righty reliever at the deadline if he needs to. But I think again the negative effects in this area will be mitigated by an improvement in another, the starting pitching.

 

Mulder is a huge upgrade over Woody, and I anticipate a comeback for Morris. He had shoulder surgery, and the reports thus far from ST are very encouraging. Likewise for Carpenter.

 

There are plenty of question marks, most of which have to do with health. Which is why if the Cards stay healthy, I feel totally comfortable predicting 97-100 wins for them.

 

I respect your opinion, however I think most of your observations are both bias & misguided.

 

The Cards benefits & strengths in 04' were( in this order):

1) Health & the lack of health of their division foes in the Reds,Cubs & Astros.

2) Defense (best defensive team in MLB LY)

3) Bullpen

4) Starting pitching

5) Scheduling (Interleague KC & TB?) & finished with the Cubs by June 20th( just happen that the Cubs were decimated with injuries more then any team in MLB in the beginning of the year).

 

I think you are underestimating the capability of a healthy Wood,Prior & Zambrano for 90-105 starts. In 04' the Cards did not face a healthy Prior once, not once. Only faced Wood twice.

 

To think you upgraded at 2nd base with Grudz over Womack is a little naive. Offensively, I think Eckstein is a equal replcament to Womack & his career year he had LY. Grudz is a huge downgrade offensively to Renteria & Eckstein is a huge downgrade defensively @ SS. Actually, I don't think you lost much speed in signing Eck to replace Womack. You are underestimating Renteria both defensively & offensively who is very solid.

 

The Cards groundball pitchers benifted from the excellent defense middle IF they had in 04'. Eckstein will rely more on Rolen when a ball is hit into the hole then did Renteria. Renteria has a strong arm & Eck's range is below avg. for a ML SS. Rolen is the best defensive 3rd basemen in the game & he should help Eckstein in some areas of his defense. Grudz is solid defensively @ 2nd, like Womack was for the Cards LY. Both are avg. defensive 2nd basemen.

 

Walker is a very good hitter & a great OBP OF. A nice #2 hitter. However, he is already banged up in ST, which does not fair well at all for the Cardinals. He is very injury prone. You should expect a few DL stints from him this year. To cross your fingers & hope he is healthy is again a little naive. Don't plan on it. However, I think Mabry is a very nice replacement temporarily for the Cards off the bench.

 

Molina in no way is an upgrade over Matheny. Molina will go through some growing pains in his 1st full season. He has a very strong arm & throws out basestealers & holds runners on very well. The one area that will effect the Cards the most @ the C position is the game calling skills. Matheny is one of the best in the game at this. In no way will Molina be able to repeat or even come close to Matheny in this aspect.

 

I wouldn't say your offense has improved on paper, but I wouldn't say it decreased much either, unless you take some hits health wise.

 

Izzy will have a better year than in 04'???? He is also another very injury prone player on your roster. When has he every put back to back healthy seasons?

 

Mulder was a good acqusition for the Cards in the offseason. If he stays healthy & doesn't wear down in the 2nd half, this could turn out to be a great move. However, his chronic hip problems still remain in ? If the Cards get to the playoffs with a healthy Mulder it could help them tremendously.

 

I also expect Morris to have a better year in 05' then in 04'. However, he has been on a slight decline in #'s his last couple years.

 

Best case scenario for the Cards would be 97-100 wins. The Cubs,Reds & Astros must all once again be devestated with injuries & the Cards must stay as healthy this year as last. Not likely to happen.

 

The Cards bullpen was a strength for them in 04' Calero,Kline &

(Haren who helped you in the pen & was one of your better relievers in the playoffs) will be sorely missed. Myers will not repeat what Kline did in 04'.

I also read that Lincoln had another bump in the road, so don't expect him to help you early in the season.

 

I predict the Cards to finsih a very respectable 90-72. They will be in the WC race & possibly the division race.

 

Cards fans shouldn't expect 100+ wins in 05' , it's just not realistic.

[David]

The Cards benefits & strengths in 04' were( in this order):

1) Health & the lack of health of their division foes in the Reds,Cubs & Astros.

2) Defense (best defensive team in MLB LY)

3) Bullpen

4) Starting pitching

5) Scheduling (Interleague KC & TB?) & finished with the Cubs by June 20th( just happen that the Cubs were decimated with injuries more then any team in MLB in the beginning of the year).

 

:shock: No mention of the best offense in the league last year? I think that was a bigger strength for the Cardinals than any of those.

 

To think you upgraded at 2nd base with Grudz over Womack is a little naive. Offensively, I think Eckstein is a equal replcament to Womack & his career year he had LY. Grudz is a huge downgrade offensively to Renteria & Eckstein is a huge downgrade defensively @ SS. Actually, I don't think you lost much speed in signing Eck to replace Womack. You are underestimating Renteria both defensively & offensively who is very solid.

 

I'd say Grudz is at best slight upgrade over Womack, at worst a wash. From 2002-2004, Womack posted .274/.318/.354 (.672 OPS)... Over that same span, Grudzielanek went .294/.335/.397 (.732 OPS). Granted, Womack had a career year that wasn't fully in line with those numbers, but I think it's reasonable to expect that Grudz could be around the .307/.349/.385 (.735) that Womack put up last year.

 

While Renteria has been a much better player than Eckstein over his career, I don't think it's that much of a stretch for him to at least come close to Renteria's .287/.327/.401 of last year (which was, admittedly, somewhat of a down year for E-Rent), good enough in the league's best offense. He should top the OBP by a little, but won't likely match the .401 SLG...

 

I, unfortunately, don't think we can write off the Cardinals offense at all this year. There are, however, injury concerns throughout that lineup. And there are questions about their starting pitching too.

 

Hopefully, things work out for the Cubs, the pitchers stay (or get) healthy, and we can battle those guys for the top spot in the division.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I agree that the division will probably come down to the two teams' relative health. But even if Prior, Wood, and Zambrano stay healthy all year, I still think the Cards finish first. I really do think they are a better team than last year.

 

So how many wins do you think they'll have this coming season? In another thread, you predicted 97, which would be a worse season for the Cards than last year.

[indifferent]

I, unfortunately, don't think we can write off the Cardinals offense at all this year. There are, however, injury concerns throughout that lineup. And there are questions about their starting pitching too.

 

Hopefully, things work out for the Cubs, the pitchers stay (or get) healthy, and we can battle those guys for the top spot in the division.

 

Our MV3's really make our offense not as vulnerable to injuries as other teams. I liken it to being a running back for the Denver Broncos. You can plug a lot of guys in there and they'll be relatively successful. If we lost one of our big guys for any period of time, I don't think we'd be as affected say if the Cubs lost Ramirez for awhile.

 

True Blue Cubs Fan, so basically you're saying that the Cards were pretty good in all aspects of baseball last year, with a little luck with injuries and scheduling. I expect that same well balanced team to show up this year as well, even more well balanced as Mulder strengthens our starting pitching. Cubs fans point to our fluky, career year starters, but you also have to look at Morris and Williams, our 1 and 2 coming into the season really not pitching well last year (with the exception of Williams' second half).

 

The bullpen is up in the air and that worries me, as I agree with VA Ball that the bullpen made us a 105 win team, rather than just a really good team. Kline and Calero are big losses, but we didn't have Haren until the playoffs so he didn't factor into our bullpen's performance last year. Same with Renteria, if we're replacing last years numbers, it's not that difficult.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

 

True Blue Cubs Fan, so basically you're saying that the Cards were pretty good in all aspects of baseball last year, with a little luck with injuries and scheduling. I expect that same well balanced team to show up this year as well, even more well balanced as Mulder strengthens our starting pitching. Cubs fans point to our fluky, career year starters, but you also have to look at Morris and Williams, our 1 and 2 coming into the season really not pitching well last year (with the exception of Williams' second half).

 

 

The Cards are not as well balanced in 05 as they were in 04. Mulder does stregthen your rotation. However, losses of Calero & Kline weaken your bullpen,losses of GG's Renteria & Matheny weaken your defense. Eckstein & Grudz in the MI is both a downgrade defensively & offensively to that of Renteria & Womack. You will also miss the veteran leadership Matheny brought to your pitching staff. The loss of Haren,retirement of Ankiel from pitching & FA loss of Williams also effects the depth your team has in it's rotation. What will they do if 1 or maybe even 2 pitchers go down with a minor or even a major injury?

[indifferent]

They will bring up Reyes and/or Wainwright. We're talking well balanced not perceived weaknesses. Our defense was one of the best in BB last year, losing Renteria and Matheny might weaken it, but it's still a strength with Rolen, Edmonds, and Pujols. Our bullpen was the best in baseball last year. We still have three key members in Izzy, King, and Tavarez. Since it was the best last year, the bullpen would have to be weakened to considerably to go from being the best to a weakness.

 

The balance is still there, it's just been juggled around a little bit (SP better, defense weaker, bullpen remains to be seen).

[TrueBlueCubFan]

They will bring up Reyes and/or Wainwright. We're talking well balanced not perceived weaknesses. Our defense was one of the best in BB last year, losing Renteria and Matheny might weaken it, but it's still a strength with Rolen, Edmonds, and Pujols. Our bullpen was the best in baseball last year. We still have three key members in Izzy, King, and Tavarez. Since it was the best last year, the bullpen would have to be weakened to considerably to go from being the best to a weakness.

 

The balance is still there, it's just been juggled around a little bit (SP better, defense weaker, bullpen remains to be seen).

 

Are Reyes or Wainwright ML ready?

I never said your bullpen would be a weakness, I just said it would be weaker with the losses of Kline,Haren & Calero. Myers doesn't make up for those losses.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Last year the Cardinals played three games over their pythag projection. The EXP W/L based on RS/RA would have been 102-67. The Cubs played significantly under their pythagorean projection. Had the Cubs matched the predicted W/L, they would have been 95-67.

 

So, let's begin our discussions assuming last season, by raw numbers the Cardinals were a 102 win team and the Cubs a 95 win team. What are the net gains and losses based on those projections?

 

Well, assisting the Cubs are Nomar for a full season and hoped for health. The Cubs will experience the loss of big bats in Alou and Sosa. Burnitz may equal some of Sosa's production, but Holla/Dubois/Hairston likely doesn't make up for Alou. If healthy, however, the Cubs should be able to match the production that should have resulted in a 95 win team.

 

The Cardinals had everything go right with a team that projects 102 wins. Mulder makes up a few more wins replacing Williams and it remains to be seen what numbers Morris will put up. I'm doubtful that Marquis will pitch as well as he did last season. Suppan may not be any worse, but he won't be any better. The bullpen will not be as effective and the middle infield defense will not be as strong either. The offense while it still boasts a wonderful heart will be equal if not a little less. A lot depends on the health of Larry Walker. Based on the gains and losses, I would expect the Cardinals to be around a 95 win team as well.

 

All in all, it's a dead heat between these two teams and the answering of the various questions and the GM's ability to make the right moves at the trading deadline along with the pesky health issues will decide this division. I'm hoping and predicting a Cubs win this year, but at this point in the season, it's a little presumptuous to assume either team will be a 100 win team or to guarantee a divisional title for either.

[indifferent]

I agree re: Myers, but Cali, Reyes, and Flores did well at the end of the season along with Haren. Also, we'll have Lincoln back probably by May. Morris, recovering from surgery is also looking good so far this spring (including his first appearance in a game today).

 

Who's going to be the Cubs LOOGY?

[TrueBlueCubFan]

I agree re: Myers, but Cali, Reyes, and Flores did well at the end of the season along with Haren. Also, we'll have Lincoln back probably by May. Morris, recovering from surgery is also looking good so far this spring (including his first appearance in a game today).

 

Who's going to be the Cubs LOOGY?

 

Remlinger & either Ohman,Rusch,Randolph,Orepesa or Koronka

[Outshined_One]

Who's going to be the Cubs LOOGY?

 

This is apparently going to be determined by writing the names of Eddie Oropesa, Stephen Randolph, Will Ohman, Russ Rohlicek, John Koronka, and Glendon Rusch down on little slips of paper, hooking them up to a dartboard, and having Darren Baker throw a dart at it.

[indifferent]

Last year the Cardinals played three games over their pythag projection. The EXP W/L based on RS/RA would have been 102-67. The Cubs played significantly under their pythagorean projection. Had the Cubs matched the predicted W/L, they would have been 95-67.

 

So, let's begin our discussions assuming last season, by raw numbers the Cardinals were a 102 win team and the Cubs a 95 win team. What are the net gains and losses based on those projections?

 

Well, assisting the Cubs are Nomar for a full season and hoped for health. The Cubs will experience the loss of big bats in Alou and Sosa. Burnitz may equal some of Sosa's production, but Holla/Dubois/Hairston likely doesn't make up for Alou. If healthy, however, the Cubs should be able to match the production that should have resulted in a 95 win team.

 

The Cardinals had everything go right with a team that projects 102 wins. Mulder makes up a few more wins replacing Williams and it remains to be seen what numbers Morris will put up. I'm doubtful that Marquis will pitch as well as he did last season. Suppan may not be any worse, but he won't be any better. The bullpen will not be as effective and the middle infield defense will not be as strong either. The offense while it still boasts a wonderful heart will be equal if not a little less. A lot depends on the health of Larry Walker. Based on the gains and losses, I would expect the Cardinals to be around a 95 win team as well.

 

All in all, it's a dead heat between these two teams and the answering of the various questions and the GM's ability to make the right moves at the trading deadline along with the pesky health issues will decide this division. I'm hoping and predicting a Cubs win this year, but at this point in the season, it's a little presumptuous to assume either team will be a 100 win team or to guarantee a divisional title for either.

 

I don't agree re: our offense being weaker. For the purposes of discussion, we're omitting injuries out of the equation. So we have Walker all year, Molina should be better than Matheny, Eckstein should equal Womack's production. Renteria's last season production of .287, .327, .401 should be capably replaced by Grudzielanek (last season of .307, .347, .432).

 

The only thing I don't like is Sanders hitting behind Edmonds instead of Renteria. Regardless of Renteria's production last year, I still think Edmonds got more to hit with Renteria behind him. That's 2 heavy K guys in a row also.

[indifferent]

Also, I concede that our middle infield defense is weaker this year, but at the end of the season, it won't be any worse than Nomar, Walker, Barrett.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Also, I concede that our middle infield defense is weaker this year, but at the end of the season, it won't be any worse than Nomar, Walker, Barrett.

 

It may or may not be any worse, but the Cardinal pitchers relied on it a lot in 2004. They may not be as successful as balls that last year were outs or double play balls roll into the outfield for seeing eye singles. Where Grudz is a better defender than Walker, Nomar has a much better arm than Eckstein. Rolen is better than Ramirez, but Lee covers more ground around first than Pujols. I'm not sure the infield defense for St. Louis will be much better than the Cubs this year, and with the ground ball pitchers they have, they will need it to be.

[jjgman21]

 

The Cards benefits & strengths in 04' were( in this order):

1) Health & the lack of health of their division foes in the Reds,Cubs & Astros.

2) Defense (best defensive team in MLB LY)

3) Bullpen

4) Starting pitching

5) Scheduling (Interleague KC & TB?) & finished with the Cubs by June 20th( just happen that the Cubs were decimated with injuries more then any team in MLB in the beginning of the year).

 

 

allow me to add, as has been pointed out many times, career years

 

its difficult to understate the Cards luck. its amazing how Card fans don't want to talk about health issues and Pythagorean W/L anymore, when its all you heard from them last offseason.

 

and on Grudz v. Womack and Renterria v. Eckstein, when predicting the improvement the Cards should expect, you do need to break it down properly.

 

Defensively - what to expect from Grudz v. what the Cards got in 2004 from Womack and what to expect from Eckstein v. what the Cards got in 2004 from Renterria.

 

Offensively - what to expect from Grudz v. what the Cards got in 2004 from Renterria and what to expect from Eckstein v. what the Cards got in 2004 from Womack.

 

 

defense at short and second - statistical measurements indicate an improvement at both positions for the Cards. observation tells a completely different story. it will be interesting to see what Grudz and Eckstein do in those statistical catagories when playing behind a staff that allows a ton of groundballs v. a couple of staffs that strike out a ton of batters. it is amazing how the Card fans now recognize how overrated Renterria was now that he's not a Card, though.

 

leadoff hitters - downgrade. without getting into the nitty gritty, you just can't expect Eckstein to match Womack last year in terms of OBP, times reaching second, p/pa and the unmeasurable factor of distraction of the pitcher.

 

Renterria's role in the lineup v. Grudz role in the lineup - like Renterria, I think Grudz will bounce around in the lineup a little. Renterria had a down year, but you also have to realize Grudz is coming off two unexpectedly good years and will turn 35 this year and won't have most of his ABs in front of the heart of the lineup. the Cards might actually do a little better this year, but not much and if Grudz battles injuries again, it will be a downgrade.

 

I'm in the camp of thinking both the Cards and Cubs changes since last year essentially even themselves out. I am banking on run differential creating closer to expected W/L and luck evening itself out, resulting in the Cubs winning the division by 3, 96 wins to 93 wins.

[indifferent]

All I was saying in dismissing injuries is that you can't predict them and for that matter, Nomar's is just as big of an injury risk as Walker. As far as Pythagorean numbers go, it seems a way to justify 105 wins. I never bought into the Pythagorean numbers because it lumps runs scored and runs allowed over the course of a whole season while each game is mutually exclusive and intangibles like closing out a one run game aren't factored in.

 

How can you rely on Pythagorean numbers on one hand and discount defensive stats on the other (the alternative being watching the game tells you otherwise)?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Nomar's is just as big of an injury risk as Walker

 

Actually, he's not. Nomar is 31; Walker is 38. Walker has had much more nicks and pains than Nomar and has already missed time this spring with a balky back. I see Walker as a much higher injury risk than Nomar.

 

As far as Pythagorean numbers go, it seems a way to justify 105 wins

 

Pythag numbers have proven to be a better judge of what a team would do if things are equal. They may not play out over the course of a season, but teams usually play very close to these numbers. They are a good way to evaluate how the same team could perform over a season. What they show is that the Cardinals were closer to a 102 win team than a 105 win team. With the losses of the offseason, I'm predicting them in the 92-98 range this year. I'm also picking the Cubs in the same range. It's going to be one hell of a race.

 

If you expect the Cardinals to run away with things like last season, you're going to be very dissapointed.

[indifferent]

I'm actually expecting all three teams' wins to go down. All three have had their offseason losses and IMO MIL, CIN, and PIT have closed the gaps. I expect more parity.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

So you're expecting the Cubs to be less than an 89 win team? I don't. If the Cubs don't have the rash of injuries as last season, they will surpass 90 wins. Book it.

[jjgman21]

All I was saying in dismissing injuries is that you can't predict them and for that matter, Nomar's is just as big of an injury risk as Walker. As far as Pythagorean numbers go, it seems a way to justify 105 wins. I never bought into the Pythagorean numbers because it lumps runs scored and runs allowed over the course of a whole season while each game is mutually exclusive and intangibles like closing out a one run game aren't factored in.

 

How can you rely on Pythagorean numbers on one hand and discount defensive stats on the other (the alternative being watching the game tells you otherwise)?

 

 

of course injuries can't be predicted, but you expect things like that to even out over a season. both teams are littered with injury risks up and down the pitching staffs and lineups.

 

you can rely on Pythagorean W/L because it is generally a good indicator of how a team performs. defensive stats, even the advanced metrics, are generally considered unreliable in measuring defensive ability. maybe you didn't mention anything about Pythagorean, but your breathren sure wouldn't shut up about it a year ago.

 

if you want to argue that stats indicate true defensive ability, you better not turn around and defend some of the Cardinals gold glove winners the past 5 years. in fact, you can give Vina a call and tell him to ship one of his to 1060 Addison, Chicago, IL. while you're at it, give Edmonds a ring and have him ship one to the same address.