North Side Baseball Mock Draft v2.0 (Cameron Edition): Cubs Land Impact Bat

[Jamie Cameron]

We’re just over a month from the opening day of the 2024 MLB Draft. We’re starting to see steam connecting prospects and teams. Check out our second mock draft of the cycle.

Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

We’re starting to see a trickle of creditable steam surrounding draft picks and fits. We’ll have at least three more mocks in the coming weeks, including a dualing installment next time up. Given how chaotic this draft should be after pick 11 or so, we’ve opted to switch things up significantly. 

1. Cleveland Guardians - Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
There's been steam connecting the Guardians to Bazzana in recent weeks. Whether accurate or not, he’s closed the gap between himself and Charlie Condon. Their composite rankings are 1.88 and 1.55 respectively. At this point, it’s close to a toss up who the industry prefers at the top.

2. Cincinnati Reds - Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia
The Reds lucked out in the lottery big time. They’ll land one of the two best players (if they so choose) and have the financial flexibility to tap into prep talent further down the board. Condon won’t be on the board long if the Guardians pass.

3. Colorado Rockies - Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
There are some decent pieces in the Rockies system, but they need talented arms if they are ever going to reemerge into relevance. Burns could be a game changer for their rotation.

4. Oakland Athletics - Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida
Caglianone’s future is as a hitter. He’s improved his chase rates and bat to ball skills in 2024, to go with the 80 grade raw power that ameliorates the first base only profile on defense.

5. Chicago White Sox - Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake HS, CA
The White Sox are in no hurry. They’ll likely strengthen their farm significantly before the trade deadline. They’ve been connected to Rainer and Griffin, the top two prep players on the board. Here we’ll go with Rainer, a polished, left-handed hitting shortstop. Braden Montgomery also makes plenty of sense here.

6. Kansas City Royals - Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
This is a great spot to be picking, despite getting some raw luck in the lottery (again). Montgomery has had a special 2024 season. Through regional play, he’s slugged .730 and hit 26 home runs. He’s better from the left side, and a plus arm makes him one of the best outfield prospects in the class. This would be a great get for KC. Rainer and Griffin could fit here, too.

7. St. Louis Cardinals - Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
The Cardinals have roared back into relevance in the NL Central in 2024 after looking down and out. They have a difficult choice here. It’s hard to pass on Hagen Smith, but in Nick Kurtz, they have one of the best hit/power combos in the draft class. 22 bombs and a 1.294 OPS after a slow start will play.

8. Los Angeles Angels - Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
We know the Angels type. They target players who can move and debut quickly at the MLB level, despite little evidence their strategy is working well. Smith could go as high as three, but his floor is likely around here after a dominant season in the SEC (164 Ks in 84 innings at the time of writing).

9. Pittsburgh Pirates - J.J. Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
Wetherholt was 1:1 coming into 2024. Lingering soft tissue injuries have cost him playing time and exposure at shortstop (having previously played second base). If he can remain healthy, he could be the steal of the top half of the first round, with the best hit tool in the class. 

10. Washington Nationals - Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep HS, MS
Griffin is one of the best athletes in this class and could go several spots higher. The Nationals tend to like high upside prep players, and Griffin has that in abundance. It’s a high risk, high reward play.

11. Detroit Tigers - Trey Yesavage RHP, East Carolina
The Tigers have a relatively new team at the helm for their draft and came away with a promising 2023 haul, led by Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle. They’ve had less success developing college pitching in recent year, but Yesavage has firmly established himself as SP3.

12. Boston Red Sox - Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
Seaver King has one of the wider range of outcomes for any first round college player. It’s athleticism, bat speed, and impact in abundance, but it’s still pretty raw. He’s one of the higher upside plays in the class on the college side.

13. San Francisco Giants - Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, AZ
Caminiti, to his credit, has maintained his draft stock throughout the process. It’s either him or Kash Mayfield for prep LHSP1. We’ll go with Caminiti here, despite some lingering concerns about his ability to spin the baseball.

14. Chicago Cubs - James Tibbs, OF, Florida State
This might be the most mocked pick this cycle. Tibbs to the Cubs makes tons of sense. It’s a pretty safe bat. If he’s off the board, Seaver King, Cam Smith, and Christian Moore all make sense). 25 home runs and a 1.267 OPS highlight an incredible season for Tibbs through regionals. If he was more athletic, he’d be a top eight pick.

15. Seattle Mariners - Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City HS, OK
The Mariners leaned into a strong prep position player class in 2023 with plenty of flexibility courtesy of abundant picks (and money). Their system could use some refreshing on the pitching side. Mayfield has one of the best deliveries in the draft class (college or prep) and would be my pick for prep LHSP1.

16. Miami Marlins - Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
The Marlins need bats. Smith is a great option who had an outstanding 2024 season anchoring the Florida State offense with James Tibbs. It’s a solid defensive profile and an offensive skillset full of impact.

17. Milwaukee Brewers - Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
The Brewers are ‘up there’ with the Mariners with the quality and consistency of their pitching development. Brecht might have the best one-two punch in the class between his fastball and slider. If he’s a first rounder, he’ll also set a record (high) for walk rate for a college pitcher. He improved in the second half of the season. If anyone can harness the immense ceiling, it’s Milwaukee.

18. Tampa Bay Rays - Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Waldschmidt is one of my favorite prospects in the 2024 cycle. He’s done everything for Kentucky offensively on one of the best teams in the SEC. There’s solid tools across the board. He’s a sure first round profile, for me.

19. New York Mets - Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
Honeycutt has the best tools of any college position player. Elite center field defense, plus speed, and the chance for plus power. There’s legitimate swing and miss worries though, and a K% north of 25% is an orange flag.

20. Toronto Blue Jays - Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore is 35 on the consensus board currently. It’s way too low. A 1.229 OPS and 29 home runs through regional play in the SEC is a first round profile. Any number of teams should be thrilled to get him in this range.

21. Minnesota Twins - Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, AR
Caldwell is one of only three sure fire prep players who will go in the first round, for me. While it might seem antithetical to the Twins typical approach (lean into the strength of the draft), Caldwell would be a top 10 pick if he was 6’0 (he’s 5’9). It’s plus speed in centerfield and a great approach at the plate in a very hitterish profile.

22. Baltimore Orioles - Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, TX
Gillen has been described as the best hitter in Texas. That ought to be good enough for a still loaded Orioles system.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers - Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS, FL
Lindsey is one of a handful of prep shortstops who will go in the 20-40 range. He’s an explosive athlete, an 80-grade runner, and the Dodgers make superstars out of prospects with these type of athletic tools. 

24. Atlanta Braves - Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
A two-way player who should focus on hitting over pitching, Benge has gotten over his groundball whoas of 2023. Benge has a nice balance of power and bat to ball skills in his profile. He’s a high floored college bat who could go ten picks higher.

25. San Diego Padres - Ryan Sloan, RHP, York Community HS, IL
One of the best prep righties in the class, Sloan has an enticing combination of frame, velocity, and pitch mix. That’s exactly the type of clay the Padres like to mold. 

26. New York Yankees - Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State
A switch pitcher who will likely focus on pitching right handed as a pro. Cijntje has earned Marcus Stroman comps and has legitimate first round steam at this point. 

27. Philadelphia Phillies - Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee
Amick’s momentum was slowed midseason by appendicitis. He’s handled third base better than expected. It’s a power over hit profile with some swing and miss concerns.

28. Houston Astros - Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
We haven’t talked much about Jordan. He might have the best bat speed in the class. There are major strikeout issues, and the contact rate is in the sixties. If the right player development team can help make it work, there’s massive impact in the profile

29. Arizona Diamondbacks - William Schmidt, Catholic HS, LA
Schmidt was an early riser in the cycle. The fastball took a velocity jump and it might be the best breaking ball in the prep class, an absolute hammer curveball.

30. Texas Rangers - Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
This feels like a value play at this point. Moore has had a poor year offensively, but is still floating around the back half of the first round on most boards.

31. Arizona Diamondbacks - Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS, NE
There’s tons of steam on the Diamondbacks and Lewis, who has risen quickly up boards. It’s a potential hit, power, speed combination at shortstop.

32. Baltimore Orioles - Kaelen Culpepper, SS/3B, Kansas State
A consistent performer throughout his collegiate career with no real gaps in his profile, and no real carrying tool either.

33. Minnesota Twins - Joey Oakie, RHP, Ankeny HS, IA
Given the Twins combination of picks and bonus pool, it makes too much sense for them to tap into a deep prep pitching class sometime in their first four picks. Oakie is one of my favorites with a nasty combination of running fastball and a sweeper with a ton of lateral movement. 

34. Milwaukee Brewers - Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State
Janek is the best catcher in the class for me. He controls the run game with a plus arm and is a good defender. The offensive profile isn’t spectacular but he does everything well. If the Brewers take two college players, expect things to get weird from then on out. They have money and picks to leverage creatively.

35. Arizona Diamondbacks - Jared Thomas, OF, Texas
An impactful college bat who should stick in centerfield. Thomas has taken a step forward in 2024 with his offensive impact. It’s an appealing, well-rounded profile.

36. Cleveland Guardians - Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS, CA
While Doughty doesn’t have a prototypical frame, it’s a smooth repeatable delivery, a good fastball, and a real ability to spin the baseball. A scary prospect in Cleveland’s player development system.

37. Pittsburgh Pirates - Wyatt Sanford, SS, Independence HS, TX
A spring riser, Sanford has a solid overall offensive profile for a system that’s very arm heavy.

38. Colorado Rockies - Caleb Lomavita, C, Cal
A value play at this point. I don’t love Lomavita’s offensive profile, personally, it’s a wild yet high impact approach. He’s had steam in the teens

39. Kansas City Royals - Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern
Sirota has had a down year, but the tools and performance have been there before. He won’t last too long.

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[Outshined_One]

What's the ceiling on Tibbs?  Something like Kyle Schwarber with higher contact rates and slightly better defensively?

[Jamie Cameron]

5 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Collazo questioned the power, called him pretty one dimensional (for the top 10). Maybe less Schwarber and more Corey Dickerson? 
 

 

 

I personally disagree with that take, and we dug into a bit in that podcast episode. 90th percentile EV north of 107 mph is solid. Cut his whiff rate by ~11% this year, close to 86% InZoneContact%. Performs well on contact out of zone and against spin, too. Headlines, it might not be top end power, but he's able to get to it in game a lot. 

[Named After Maddux]

19 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Collazo questioned the power, called him pretty one dimensional (for the top 10). Maybe less Schwarber and more Corey Dickerson? 
 

 

 

Dickerson had worse swing decisions from what I remember. Maybe a better comp for Tibbs would be like a LHH Taylor Ward. Slightly better than average whiffs, good swing decisions, better than average EV. Probably not a consistent all-star, but consistently good hitter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think they're as comparable as college players, but I kinda think of Happ when I think of Tibbs?  Very discerning at the plate, major league pop without being top of scale, corner OF that should stick there but without the bazooka arm, etc.

[Tryptamine]

With almost a month left to go, I've kind of settled in on Tibbs/Cam Smith as the guys I'm expecting. Part of me wants to take a swing at Honeycutt, but I can't recall the Cubs ever significantly improving the contact issues of guys who were drafted with significant ones.

[CubinNY]

Both are right in their comfort zone, but I wouldn't be surprised by anything they do. And unlike the past, I'm not going to criticize either. Although, I'm not so sure Tibbs will be there. He's kind of blowing up. 

Edited June 13, 2024 by CubinNY