Cashing in your (prospect) chips

[Bertz]

So, it probably doesnt absolutely have to start right away at the deadline, and it certainly doesn't need to happen all at once, but there is a certain extent to which Jed *must* begin spending some of this prospect currency over the next year.

Let's take the outfield where things are most crowded.  The Cubs have 8 outfielders on the 40 man roster

- Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger, Tauchman as major league veterans.  Bellinger has an opt out that looks 50/50ish today while the other three are definitely under contract for next year

- Canario and PCA on the Iowa shuttle.  Canario is already on his last minor league option, so he basically has to get traded or permanently force his way onto the roster between now and next April

- Davis and Alcantara as (currently) pure minor leaguers.  Both only have this year and next with minor league options, so the clock is ticking on them

- Owen Caissie has to be added to the 40 man this winter, and will begin burning options from there

1B is similar.  You have Busch and Wisdom right there now, Bellinger and Caissie as options depending on how crowded the outfield is, a very strong argument to move Morel over there over the winter,  and while he's got plenty of like roster administration runway Ballesteros is probably a 1B and probably not far off of MLB relevance.

You've gotta start cashing in some of these chips.  Maybe Robert's not your choice but if you sit around waiting for perfect you risk burning through runway with guys like has already happened with Canario.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So, it probably doesnt absolutely have to start right away at the deadline, and it certainly doesn't need to happen all at once, but there is a certain extent to which Jed *must* begin spending some of this prospect currency over the next year.

Let's take the outfield where things are most crowded.  The Cubs have 8 outfielders on the 40 man roster

- Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger, Tauchman as major league veterans.  Bellinger has an opt out that looks 50/50ish today while the other three are definitely under contract for next year

- Canario and PCA on the Iowa shuttle.  Canario is already on his last minor league option, so he basically has to get traded or permanently force his way onto the roster between now and next April

- Davis and Alcantara as (currently) pure minor leaguers.  Both only have this year and next with minor league options, so the clock is ticking on them

- Owen Caissie has to be added to the 40 man this winter, and will begin burning options from there

1B is similar.  You have Busch and Wisdom right there now, Bellinger and Caissie as options depending on how crowded the outfield is, a very strong argument to move Morel over there over the winter,  and while he's got plenty of like roster administration runway Ballesteros is probably a 1B and probably not far off of MLB relevance.

You've gotta start cashing in some of these chips.  Maybe Robert's not your choice but if you sit around waiting for perfect you risk burning through runway with guys like has already happened with Canario.

Nicely done. Agree 100%. They need to use some prospects to bring in mlb talent. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I split this off because I think it's a worthy topic that isn't specific to the White Sox sell off.  My quick .02:

 

• I agree that you probably need to make a more decisive move than they have fairly soon, both because of what Bertz mentions about the diminishing returns of hoarding upper level prospects, and because their point in the competitive cycle it will make sense to be a bit more bold.
• The deadline and this deadline in particular is going to be a suboptimal time to make such a move.  There's already news stories about how few sellers there might be, and in general the deadline has trended away from splashier moves
• In particular, the sellers this year don't have a particularly good match for what the Cubs might want to add.  This is not to say there's no one worth trading for, but if you made a list of the profiles the Cubs would be most interested in trading for, the top couple on the list probably don't have a good match to players likely to be traded in July.

Having said that, there are a few interesting names if you start dangling multiple Top 100 names that most orgs will hesitate to give up or even have.  For SP, Crochet and Luzardo probably highlight the list.  At 3B, if the Rays are open to it and a playoff longshot you could maybe tempt them out of Paredes(especially with their 2 best prospects being 3B at AAA).  Robert was mentioned in the other thread and could be worth it even if the fit is suboptimal.

[Bertz]

16 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I split this off because I think it's a worthy topic that isn't specific to the White Sox sell off.  My quick .02:

 

• I agree that you probably need to make a more decisive move than they have fairly soon, both because of what Bertz mentions about the diminishing returns of hoarding upper level prospects, and because their point in the competitive cycle it will make sense to be a bit more bold.
• The deadline and this deadline in particular is going to be a suboptimal time to make such a move.  There's already news stories about how few sellers there might be, and in general the deadline has trended away from splashier moves
• In particular, the sellers this year don't have a particularly good match for what the Cubs might want to add.  This is not to say there's no one worth trading for, but if you made a list of the profiles the Cubs would be most interested in trading for, the top couple on the list probably don't have a good match to players likely to be traded in July.

Having said that, there are a few interesting names if you start dangling multiple Top 100 names that most orgs will hesitate to give up or even have.  For SP, Crochet and Luzardo probably highlight the list.  At 3B, if the Rays are open to it and a playoff longshot you could maybe tempt them out of Paredes(especially with their 2 best prospects being 3B at AAA).  Robert was mentioned in the other thread and could be worth it even if the fit is suboptimal.

Yeah that second point is really big and frustrating.  If you want to go really bold on someone we feel suspect is legitimately on the market you're kind of limited to OF/SP/1B.  The team isn't so good at those spots you can't upgrade but it's certainly not ideal.

Honestly what I kind of wonder about is a young player swap at the deadline (think Gallen/Jazz) and then a more proper buy trade over the winter.  I think with the young player swap you probably open doors to more positions, e.g. catcher, and it's not too pot committed if things go south in the second half.  Then you make your big buy trade concurrently with a big FA signing (even if Bellinger opts in and LT is a hard cap there's enough room for a $30M+ player this winter).

[Cuzi]

Justin Foscue could potentially be this years version of Jordan Westburg. He just became eligible to return from the 60 day IL the other day and the Rangers dont really have a spot for him to play after he played in just 2 games before getting injured. He's a nothing really special about him prospect, like Westburg was, but he's all around solid, again like Westburg. His arm doesnt get the greatest marks but the Cubs made it work with Madrigal's arm at 3B and 3B just happens to be an opening on this team.

[mfcubs22]

Get Vlad or Robert. Trade anyone. We need a star and need to consolidate some of this depth. 

[KCCub]

Front office pushing out this smoke to try to show the fanbase they are working on deals? Seems odd that this and the Vlad Jr stuff would leak all of a sudden. 

[Outshined_One]

18 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Front office pushing out this smoke to try to show the fanbase they are working on deals? Seems odd that this and the Vlad Jr stuff would leak all of a sudden. 

It's hot stove season, so this is to be expected. Moreover, this could be coming from non-Cubs sources as a way to drive up the value of guys who might be available.

Plus it's exceedingly obvious that this team needs a catcher. There's no one ready in the minors, Amaya has been decidedly meh, and Gomes is horrendous. The sooner they plug that hole, the better.

[Jason Ross]

The Cubs need a catcher, but I'm not sure Diaz is the guy. He's having a good year but his xwOBA is .282 and his actual wOBA is .344. That's a pretty big gap. He's a career 80 wRC+ with a BABIP nearing .350 this year (career is under .300). Defensively he's been really good this year, but tends to yo-yo between being good and bad. Career .6 fWAR but entered the year a negative career fWAR. If he comes exceedingly cheap he'san upgrade over the corpse of what was Yan Gomes but I'm not sure he plugs many holes unless the defensive value remains real and there's internal belief that despite very blue Savant page that the xData is wrong.

Find a catcher, but I'd hope the sights remain set higher than Diaz.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

22 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs need a catcher, but I'm not sure Diaz is the guy. He's having a good year but his xwOBA is .282 and his actual wOBA is .344. That's a pretty big gap. He's a career 80 wRC+ with a BABIP nearing .350 this year (career is under .300). Defensively he's been really good this year, but tends to yo-yo between being good and bad. Career .6 fWAR but entered the year a negative career fWAR. If he comes exceedingly cheap he'san upgrade over the corpse of what was Yan Gomes but I'm not sure he plugs many holes unless the defensive value remains real and there's internal belief that despite very blue Savant page that the xData is wrong.

Find a catcher, but I'd hope the sights remain set higher than Diaz.

I agree that Diaz isn't a huge prize, I'd bet on him exceeding his career line but he's a tossup to be an average hitter and the defense as you say has waxed and waned, in particular the receiving.  That said, if Colorado is willing to do something very soon, I think the duration of time you'd have him may be worth pulling the trigger.  Another 5-7 weeks of the current catching situation waiting for the Jays to maybe sell Jansen or some other non-obvious target (that needs to be clearly better than Diaz) to become available is a significant opportunity cost given how dire the current catching situation is.  You could also argue that Diaz's likely cheaper price compared to a Jansen or a long term solution may be helpful for them to make even more productive additions closer to the deadline too.  As a hypothetical, Diaz + Vlad > Jansen + this year's Candelario.

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I agree that Diaz isn't a huge prize, I'd bet on him exceeding his career line but he's a tossup to be an average hitter and the defense as you say has waxed and waned, in particular the receiving.  That said, if Colorado is willing to do something very soon, I think the duration of time you'd have him may be worth pulling the trigger.  Another 5-7 weeks of the current catching situation waiting for the Jays to maybe sell Jansen or some other non-obvious target (that needs to be clearly better than Diaz) to become available is a significant opportunity cost given how dire the current catching situation is.  You could also argue that Diaz's likely cheaper price compared to a Jansen or a long term solution may be helpful for them to make even more productive additions closer to the deadline too.  As a hypothetical, Diaz + Vlad > Jansen + this year's Candelario.

It really depends on what you're bringing in Diaz for. He's been roughly replacement level his entire career. And even if he's going to overplay his line (and moving forward I'm really not very confident at that, at least offensively. His savant page is pretty close to last year's stuff) you're looking at someone who might be a 1 win player. If he's going to be a backup guy, who splits some time with Amaya back and forth, leaning on the hot hand a bit more than the other? There's some value there. I'd just still remain in the Jansen market, too, if that makes sense. 

What I don't want the Cubs to do is to trade for Diaz and then assume the catcher position is solved for 2024. Diaz over Gomes makes sense. Diaz as the catcher...probably moves the Cubs needle very slightly but that's probably it, and not enough for me to say "mission accomplished" on the position for the '24 season. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It really depends on what you're bringing in Diaz for. He's been roughly replacement level his entire career. And even if he's going to overplay his line (and moving forward I'm really not very confident at that, at least offensively. His savant page is pretty close to last year's stuff) you're looking at someone who might be a 1 win player. If he's going to be a backup guy, who splits some time with Amaya back and forth? There's some value there. I'd just still remain in the Jansen market, too, if that makes sense. 

What I don't want the Cubs to do is to trade for Diaz and then assume the catcher position is solved for 2024. Diaz over Gomes makes sense. Diaz as the catcher...probably moves the Cubs needle very slightly but that's probably it. 

The way I think of it is that Diaz restores a floor of production from the position.  Cubs catchers are currently playing at a full season pace of almost -3 fWAR, even if Amaya still splits time and doesn't improve, replacing Gomes with a player of Diaz's profile is potentially a multi-win upgrade for a price far less than those typically go for at the deadline.

Would I consider the catcher position solved?  Not particularly, but it would no longer be a bleeding wound on the roster.  But I probably wouldn't use further assets on it unless something else significant changes. I'd be okay with gambling on the odds of one or both of Amaya/Diaz having enough of an offensive turnaround to provide upside that it can be decent instead of merely 'not horrific'.  Especially since the odds of a 'definitely better than Diaz' option being available basically hinge on the Blue Jays selling or some other team deciding to give up on a pre-arb catcher, which is far from a slam dunk.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The way I think of it is that Diaz restores a floor of production from the position.  Cubs catchers are currently playing at a full season pace of almost -3 fWAR, even if Amaya still splits time and doesn't improve, replacing Gomes with a player of Diaz's profile is potentially a multi-win upgrade for a price far less than those typically go for at the deadline.

Would I consider the catcher position solved?  Not particularly, but it would no longer be a bleeding wound on the roster.  But I probably wouldn't use further assets on it unless something else significant changes. I'd be okay with gambling on the odds of one or both of Amaya/Diaz having enough of an offensive turnaround to provide upside that it can be decent instead of merely 'not horrific'.  Especially since the odds of a 'definitely better than Diaz' option being available basically hinge on the Blue Jays selling or some other team deciding to give up on a pre-arb catcher, which is far from a slam dunk.

While I respect that point if view, the "just get to the floor" is never a thing I advocate for, especially in mid-June. If it were the day before the deadline and there were a dearth of options, maybe getting to the floor is your best case. With plenty of time to go, getting to the floor today sounds okay, but leaves you in a similar situation as the Cubs were last year at 1b: you've tried to get yourself to a position where you're *hoping* for below average play at best. Diaz, himself, has a pretty poor savant profile and has seen his wRC+ at a 93 over his last 70 PAs (with a far more normal .306 BABIP). I think that might even be high, with his xWOBA being much lower than his actual wOBA. While Mancini and Hosmer have no baring on Diaz, there's a pretty good reason to believe Diaz would be that again if pressed into daily starting roles with Amaya from now through, maybe, October.

Which is why I'd use Diaz as a way to get to the floor now with an eye in continuing to upgrade. The return on a 33 year old .6 fWAR career C should be minimal and like you said, probably stops the pure bleeding at the position. But there's not much in Diaz's profile that makes me think that is where the Cubs should rest on their laurels at a position that would still likely be the weakest position in the org and right next to RP as their biggest concerns moving forward.

[Bertz]

Under the hood Diaz looks like a vaguely average catcher getting a Coors Field bump.  Vaguely average is a massive upgrade over Yan Gomes, and there's probably not a lot of other optionsyou can pull in June.  Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. get someone cromulent now and figure out if you can/should do more in 6 weeks.

[KCCub]

 

 

[Cuzi]

It's certainly harder to preach when in year 5 of the "not a rebuild" project, his team is still mediocre at best and struggling to compete in a small market division with $50 million more (nearly $80 million more on the 26 man roster) payroll than the next closest team.

Edited June 11, 2024 by Cuzi