Addressing The Cubs Trade Deadline Needs: Bullpen, Bullpen, Bullpen (And More Bullpen)

[Jason Ross]

As the calendar ticks over to June, it's time for us to start considering what the trade deadline might look like from a Chicago Cubs point of view. The pitching side of that question brings us interesting dichotomies: a rotation that feels deep and strong and a bullpen that feels paper thin. 

Image courtesy of © Melissa Tamez-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs' pitching staff feels like a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation. Looking at the Cubs currently, the Cubs rotation has the seventh-best ERA in baseball, at 3.49, and the ninth-best FIP, at 3.87. This includes data from Kyle Hendricks, who, it pains me to say, has done everything in his power to drag that number down. Conversely, Cubs' relievers have the 25th-worst OPS against (the 24th worst wOBA against) and the 26th worst ERA. One of these things is not pulling their weight. To address what the Cubs may need to fix at the deadline, we should first look at the Cubs' current roster and determine which players are likely to be replaced and where the problems lie.

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Current Cubs Roster
As of today, the rotation the Cubs should feel very confident in the rotation they are running out there. Shota Imanaga has been all-world (though he will likely regress a little), Justin Steele is finally looking like he's back to the Steele we know, Javier Assad has transformed himself into a reliable mid-rotation arm, and the Cubs have contributors in Jameson Taillon, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and the near-to-returning-Jordan Wicks to fill out any holes. Strangely, the Cubs can thank the poor performances from Kyle Hendricks and injuries to Steele and Taillon as it seems they have helped the Cubs identify young pitchers capable of being a part of the MLB rotation early in the season. These speed bumps have created a group of pitchers you can feel relatively comfortable with, even if they see a few injuries along the way. The same cannot be said for the bullpen.

The Cubs' bullpen has been a mess since the very beginning of the season. Entering the season, the team was counting on the returning Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr, coupled with new addition Hector Neris, to stabilize the late innings of games. Thus far, two of the four currently find themselves on the injury list, and only Leiter has been truly trustworthy on the season. Even Neris, whose ERA would suggest he's had a good season, has been sketchy, as he sports a 4.58 FIP, a 5.33 xFIP, and a 5.17 xERA. Neris's 5.33 xFIP is the seventh worst in baseball for qualified relievers...and this is the guy currently tasked with closing out the game. It should be no surprise that the Cubs rank second to last in baseball with 12 blown games through the first two months of the season.

The issues the Cubs have had in the bullpen have extended past just the end of the game, as well, as pitchers expected to solidify in the middle of the bullpen, such as Luke Little, Jose Cuas, Daniel Palencia, Drew Smyly, and Yency Almonte have either been ineffective, inured, or for a few of them, a combination of both. Where the Cubs have been hurt are in self-induced harm, as despite having a K% above the league average, they rank just 24th in BB%. Players like Little (18.8 BB%), Neris (16.9 BB%), Palencia (15.4 BB%), Smyly (12.5 BB%), Almonte (11.9 BB%), and Thompson (10.7% BB%) are all over the league average for walk rates for relievers. Some of these players have been regulars, others have missed time, and even more have been on the Iowa-to-Chicago shuttle, but the point remains: Cubs' relievers are constantly putting themselves behind the eight-ball. 

Recently, the Cubs bullpen seemed to have been turning things around. With the addition of Tyson Miller from Seattle, Hayden Wesneski's addition to the bullpen full-time, and a few players starting to find themselves, it looked like progress was being made. From May 1st through May 24th, the Cubs bullpen ERA had improved from 3.67 (14th in baseball over that span) to a 3.50 xFIP (2nd in baseball). The walk rate had significantly lowered, and the team looked like they had started to find a groove. Sadly, the last week of games has shown that perhaps that was premature, as the Cubs bullpen has an ERA over that span approaching nine while serving up a .911 OPS against and a walk rate over 13%. It's been a bad, bad, bad week. The Cubs will have to find a way to stop the bleeding as their W-L record begins tipping in the wrong direction...they don't have the luxury of their bullpen leaking games away this consistently. Likely, the bullpen isn't truly as bad as it's been over the last seven days, but it's also been bad enough this year that these types of runs need to be avoided moving forward.

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Injury Returns
The Cubs have a few players currently located on the IL who may be able to help the Cubs' bullpen, the first of whom is Yency Almonte. While Almonte was maligned early in the season, the right-handed reliever had become one of the Cubs' more reliable mid-rotation options before his injury. Throwing 15 innings with a 3.74 xFIP, Almonte's loss has been felt. Sadly for the Cubs, Almonte was placed on the IL with a right shoulder strain, and the most recent update (from May 21st) was that he was simply playing catch, so while he's making some light progress, there's little timetable for that to occur. 

A second significant reliever for the Cubs sits on the IL in Julian Merryweather. Suffering a rib stress fracture, it's believed that the earliest the righty will return is in June, and probably later rather than sooner. This is a player who was a very important part of the Cubs bullpen last year, making 69 appearances, posting a 3.38 ERA / 3.61 xFIP, and being on the Cubs' best arms. It's likely that when he returns, he will do so with a bit of rust, but if he can regain his form, he would give the Cubs a potential late-innings reliever back on the roster without trading anyone.

Jordan Wicks is also very close to making his MLB return. While I don't think he'll help the bullpen directly (as I think he's a starting pitcher, true and true), his return will allow the Cubs to make some decisions regarding the immediate future of someone like Ben Brown. While Brown has been phenomenal in any role given to him, he may realistically help the Cubs most in their beleaguered bullpen right now. Moving the hard thrower to the end of the bullpen could give the Cubs a lockdown option at the end of games they're currently missing. Considering they've yo-yoed Brown all season from rotation to bullpen, he's the most likely to move back to the pen upon a Wicks return, in my humble opinion.

The Cubs also have players such as Colton Brewer, Daniel Palencia, and Adbert Alzolay, who may eventually find themselves healthy and on the Cubs roster to add depth. Still, I think these players are more "outside looking in" right now (in the case of Alzolay, it feels he may be more than that, but he'd have to show some real improvement with the slider).

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Internal Options Down on the Farm
The Cubs may also be able to turn to some bullpen options on the farm. Cade Horton could either add to the rotation or the bullpen, but his most recent lat "soreness" has put that in doubt. Also, the Cubs have Porter Hodge and Michael Arias on the 40-man roster, both of whom have plenty of stuff, but neither of whom would likely aid the Cubs' walk issues (both struggle with consistency in the vein of Luke Little, for example). A few players are also working their way back from injury, like Ethan Roberts, who has looked quite sharp in his first six-plus innings at Triple-A. He could be an option down the road as he rounds into final form. 

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Overall, the Cubs clearly have some issues that need to be fixed in the bullpen. The Cubs simply walk too many hitters and give up too many home runs. While they can get swings and misses, they need some lockdown relievers, especially at the end of the game, to shore things up. They have some internal help (hopefully) coming in Almonte, Merryweather, and some internal options who could add some depth, like Brown and Roberts. With that said, I think the Cubs will have to spend resources to bring in external help to the bullpen as we inch closer to the conclusion of July if they want to truly fix these problems... there are just too many things to fix for them to all come from within.

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What do you think the Cubs should do in the bullpen? Do you think they have enough help internally, or will they need to make a trade? Let us know in the comments section below!

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[Bertz]

The team needs a closer caliber arm, full stop.  Leiter and Neris are getting it done, the latter through gumption and platoon splits, but it's clearly a tightrope act and they'reclearly a guy short in the circle of trust.  Another guy you can give 9th inning duties to, ideally one that you can do so regardless of situation, will have a cascading effect and honestly do most of the bullpen fixing in one move.  Tanner Scott still feels like the guy, he was awful to open the season but he's been himself since April 20th.  Go get him ASAP, do it yesterday.

As for what else the pen needs, I think that's more wait and see.  I am not expecting Merryweather, Almonte, and Alzolay to come save the day, but odds are probably that one of the three slides back into the pen next month and resumes contributing at a high level.  I also feel good about the kids.  Hodge has surprisingly been incredible in the early going, and both Palencia and Little feel *really* close to figuring it out.  You've also got other live arms at Iowa like Arias, McWilliams, and Roberts.  If the deadline was today you probably need to add some unexciting depth types, but I'm hopeful a month from now that's no longer going to be a need.

[Guest234]

Show me the Regression?

[We Got The Whole 9]

The walks from the pen are outrageous, Most teams these days tell their pitchers to throw their best stuff down the middle and trust the defense; I'm not sure if we subscribe to that philosophy. It doesn't feel like we do.

Neris is going backward. His career low in K% is 24, he's never had a BB% over 13, and yet he's out there with a 19 and 17 in those respective categories. Hottovy absolutely has to get him right. The silver lining is that he has avoided hard contact; it could be a whole lot worse.

I'm thinking Roberts will get a shot pretty quickly. They need more Tyson Miller types who throw strikes and don't beat themselves.

Edited June 5, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The walks from the pen are outrageous, Most teams these days tell their pitchers to throw their best stuff down the middle and trust the defense; I'm not sure if we subscribe to that philosophy. It doesn't feel like we do.

Neris is going backward. His career low in K% is 24, he's never had a BB% over 13, and yet he's out there with a 19 and 17 in those respective categories. Hottovy absolutely has to get him right. The silver lining is that he has avoided hard contact; it could be a whole lot worse.

I'm thinking Roberts will get a shot pretty quickly. They need more Tyson Miller types who throw strikes and don't beat themselves.

I think on the whole, I really don't think teams have players just throwing balls down the middle. The Cubs throw 7% of pitches middle-middle and most teams vacillate around 7-8%. They're right on the league average on mid-pitches in general. As well, regardless of whether you throw 100mph or not, pitchers at the highest velocity still give up a .320-.330 wOBA on pitches mid-mid. I don't think MLB teams would be preaching that. With that said, I think what kills the Cubs is the vast amount of non-competitive pitches the relievers through. The Cubs are 28th in baseball in competitive strikes thrown by relievers at just 81.8%. League average is 83.6%. They just don't throw enough "almost strikes".

What we do know is that the difference between an 0-1 count and a 1-0 count is pretty big. Almost .30 points in wOBA; from a .344 wOBA in 0-1 counts to a .397 wOBA in 1-0 counts. We can also see a huge difference in hitters vs pitchers counts; from a .208 to a .440 wOBA. It's double as good. With the Cubs throwing so many non-competitive strikes, and with hitters simply not offering at those, the Cubs relievers are doing themselves a massive disservice here. Not only is it creating far more walks it's creating situation where opposing hitters are capable of doing more damage. It shouldn't be surprising to see the .315 wOBA against Cubs relievers.
 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The walks from the pen are outrageous, Most teams these days tell their pitchers to throw their best stuff down the middle and trust the defense; I'm not sure if we subscribe to that philosophy. It doesn't feel like we do.

Neris is going backward. His career low in K% is 24, he's never had a BB% over 13, and yet he's out there with a 19 and 17 in those respective categories. Hottovy absolutely has to get him right. The silver lining is that he has avoided hard contact; it could be a whole lot worse.

I'm thinking Roberts will get a shot pretty quickly. They need more Tyson Miller types who throw strikes and don't beat themselves.

If we look at the trend lines I think Neris is moving the right direction when it comes to walks: 

 

The K's are slightly better but not where we want him, so still work to be done(though maybe related to the weak contact).