Addressing The Cubs Trade Deadline Needs: Bullpen, Bullpen, Bullpen (And More Bullpen)

The Chicago Cubs' pitching staff feels like a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation. Looking at the Cubs currently, the Cubs rotation has the seventh-best ERA in baseball, at 3.49, and the ninth-best FIP, at 3.87. This includes data from Kyle Hendricks, who, it pains me to say, has done everything in his power to drag that number down. Conversely, Cubs' relievers have the 25th-worst OPS against (the 24th worst wOBA against) and the 26th worst ERA. One of these things is not pulling their weight. To address what the Cubs may need to fix at the deadline, we should first look at the Cubs' current roster and determine which players are likely to be replaced and where the problems lie.

Current Cubs Roster
As of today, the rotation the Cubs should feel very confident in the rotation they are running out there. Shota Imanaga has been all-world (though he will likely regress a little), Justin Steele is finally looking like he's back to the Steele we know, Javier Assad has transformed himself into a reliable mid-rotation arm, and the Cubs have contributors in Jameson Taillon, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and the near-to-returning-Jordan Wicks to fill out any holes. Strangely, the Cubs can thank the poor performances from Kyle Hendricks and injuries to Steele and Taillon as it seems they have helped the Cubs identify young pitchers capable of being a part of the MLB rotation early in the season. These speed bumps have created a group of pitchers you can feel relatively comfortable with, even if they see a few injuries along the way. The same cannot be said for the bullpen.

The Cubs' bullpen has been a mess since the very beginning of the season. Entering the season, the team was counting on the returning Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr, coupled with new addition Hector Neris, to stabilize the late innings of games. Thus far, two of the four currently find themselves on the injury list, and only Leiter has been truly trustworthy on the season. Even Neris, whose ERA would suggest he's had a good season, has been sketchy, as he sports a 4.58 FIP, a 5.33 xFIP, and a 5.17 xERA. Neris's 5.33 xFIP is the seventh worst in baseball for qualified relievers...and this is the guy currently tasked with closing out the game. It should be no surprise that the Cubs rank second to last in baseball with 12 blown games through the first two months of the season.

The issues the Cubs have had in the bullpen have extended past just the end of the game, as well, as pitchers expected to solidify in the middle of the bullpen, such as Luke Little, Jose Cuas, Daniel Palencia, Drew Smyly, and Yency Almonte have either been ineffective, inured, or for a few of them, a combination of both. Where the Cubs have been hurt are in self-induced harm, as despite having a K% above the league average, they rank just 24th in BB%. Players like Little (18.8 BB%), Neris (16.9 BB%), Palencia (15.4 BB%), Smyly (12.5 BB%), Almonte (11.9 BB%), and Thompson (10.7% BB%) are all over the league average for walk rates for relievers. Some of these players have been regulars, others have missed time, and even more have been on the Iowa-to-Chicago shuttle, but the point remains: Cubs' relievers are constantly putting themselves behind the eight-ball. 

Recently, the Cubs bullpen seemed to have been turning things around. With the addition of Tyson Miller from Seattle, Hayden Wesneski's addition to the bullpen full-time, and a few players starting to find themselves, it looked like progress was being made. From May 1st through May 24th, the Cubs bullpen ERA had improved from 3.67 (14th in baseball over that span) to a 3.50 xFIP (2nd in baseball). The walk rate had significantly lowered, and the team looked like they had started to find a groove. Sadly, the last week of games has shown that perhaps that was premature, as the Cubs bullpen has an ERA over that span approaching nine while serving up a .911 OPS against and a walk rate over 13%. It's been a bad, bad, bad week. The Cubs will have to find a way to stop the bleeding as their W-L record begins tipping in the wrong direction...they don't have the luxury of their bullpen leaking games away this consistently. Likely, the bullpen isn't truly as bad as it's been over the last seven days, but it's also been bad enough this year that these types of runs need to be avoided moving forward.

Injury Returns
The Cubs have a few players currently located on the IL who may be able to help the Cubs' bullpen, the first of whom is Yency Almonte. While Almonte was maligned early in the season, the right-handed reliever had become one of the Cubs' more reliable mid-rotation options before his injury. Throwing 15 innings with a 3.74 xFIP, Almonte's loss has been felt. Sadly for the Cubs, Almonte was placed on the IL with a right shoulder strain, and the most recent update (from May 21st) was that he was simply playing catch, so while he's making some light progress, there's little timetable for that to occur. 

A second significant reliever for the Cubs sits on the IL in Julian Merryweather. Suffering a rib stress fracture, it's believed that the earliest the righty will return is in June, and probably later rather than sooner. This is a player who was a very important part of the Cubs bullpen last year, making 69 appearances, posting a 3.38 ERA / 3.61 xFIP, and being on the Cubs' best arms. It's likely that when he returns, he will do so with a bit of rust, but if he can regain his form, he would give the Cubs a potential late-innings reliever back on the roster without trading anyone.

Jordan Wicks is also very close to making his MLB return. While I don't think he'll help the bullpen directly (as I think he's a starting pitcher, true and true), his return will allow the Cubs to make some decisions regarding the immediate future of someone like Ben Brown. While Brown has been phenomenal in any role given to him, he may realistically help the Cubs most in their beleaguered bullpen right now. Moving the hard thrower to the end of the bullpen could give the Cubs a lockdown option at the end of games they're currently missing. Considering they've yo-yoed Brown all season from rotation to bullpen, he's the most likely to move back to the pen upon a Wicks return, in my humble opinion.

The Cubs also have players such as Colton Brewer, Daniel Palencia, and Adbert Alzolay, who may eventually find themselves healthy and on the Cubs roster to add depth. Still, I think these players are more "outside looking in" right now (in the case of Alzolay, it feels he may be more than that, but he'd have to show some real improvement with the slider).

Internal Options Down on the Farm
The Cubs may also be able to turn to some bullpen options on the farm. Cade Horton could either add to the rotation or the bullpen, but his most recent lat "soreness" has put that in doubt. Also, the Cubs have Porter Hodge and Michael Arias on the 40-man roster, both of whom have plenty of stuff, but neither of whom would likely aid the Cubs' walk issues (both struggle with consistency in the vein of Luke Little, for example). A few players are also working their way back from injury, like Ethan Roberts, who has looked quite sharp in his first six-plus innings at Triple-A. He could be an option down the road as he rounds into final form. 

Overall, the Cubs clearly have some issues that need to be fixed in the bullpen. The Cubs simply walk too many hitters and give up too many home runs. While they can get swings and misses, they need some lockdown relievers, especially at the end of the game, to shore things up. They have some internal help (hopefully) coming in Almonte, Merryweather, and some internal options who could add some depth, like Brown and Roberts. With that said, I think the Cubs will have to spend resources to bring in external help to the bullpen as we inch closer to the conclusion of July if they want to truly fix these problems... there are just too many things to fix for them to all come from within.

What do you think the Cubs should do in the bullpen? Do you think they have enough help internally, or will they need to make a trade? Let us know in the comments section below!