Cubs' Ensemble Cast Needs a Stronger Leading Man

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The prerogative of the Chicago Cubs' front office has been to amass better depth and generate a stable, balanced big-league roster. Did they focus too much on that, at the expense of building one that can actually win?

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

At this point, you won’t find many positive words in any quarter about the Chicago Cubs. They’re in the midst of a horrific May, and a smaller stretch in which they’ve lost eight of 10. While the pitching has largely held up – or even been outstanding – the offense has been anemic, and the defense has largely been below-average. 

To that end, Matt Trueblood published a piece regarding Dansby Swanson and his contract earlier this week. In Year 2 of his deal, it’s a contract already looking problematic on multiple fronts. This includes the offense – where Swanson was already visibly the weakest of the available shortstops last winter – and the defense, which has long been the hallmark of his game. 

I’ve long been a fan of Dansby Swanson. His process as a defender and commitment to discussing the mental side of sport is extremely admirable. When he signed in Chicago, I doubt that even those who were fine with the deal had any delusions about what he brings. At best, it’s excellent defense and an average bat. Of course, what we’re getting now is at the left end of the spectrum of possible outcomes. The previous regime under Theo Epstein caught a lot of flak for the Jason Heyward deal, in which you essentially wound up paying for presence and defense. With Swanson, the Cubs are, to our knowledge, really only getting one of those things.

There’s plenty of opportunity for redemption from Swanson, of course. We know he had a knee issue that could impact the defense we’ve seen in 2024. Getting his approach in order could help him to at least reestablish some offensive value within the streakiness he brings, which would be a net positive (since expecting offensive consistency is a fool’s errand at this point in his career). You could also make that statement for most of the lineup at this point in the calendar. 

What’s important to note in the larger context of the Swanson conversation isn’t so much his value and his contract in a vacuum. That’s an important conversation, but a separate one to what Swanson’s struggles are bringing to my own mind. Instead, my focus is on the process of this front office in assembling offensive talent.

Swanson was never expected to be an offensive catalyst. He’s been in the league since 2016. If you think there’s more to his bat, then you probably shouldn’t be making decisions at this level. But what he was supposed to be was a supplement. When he’s on – even with the frustrating streakiness – he’s an effective secondary piece on your lineup.

Of course, the same could be said of Ian Happ. The same could be said of Seiya Suzuki, or this version of Cody Bellinger. Or Nico Hoerner. Probably Michael Busch, too. The Cubs have built their entire ship out of secondary bats, all while hoping that maybe someone like Christopher Morel could evolve into the gamebreaker that this lineup is dying for.

But it’s hard to imagine that that bat is on its way. Morel has already outperformed what his skill set said he should be. On the farm, Pete Crow-Armstrong is a glove-first guy. Brennen Davis can’t stay healthy. Alexander Canario can’t find an opportunity. Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara represent the potential for such a presence in the lineup, but you’re still talking about prospects. And within the prospect conversation, you’re talking about an organization who appears about as conservative in pushing their youth to the higher levels as any team out there.

And that’s really the issue, isn’t it? Conservatism.

Jed Hoyer won’t push the envelope on the trade market. Or in free agency. Or in graduating prospects. There’s some obvious oversimplification there, especially as it relates to prospect development. But, ultimately, you’ve spent this time rebuilding the organizational depth, but at what point do we see it activated and deployed in a meaningful way? 

Until that question has an answer, this is the type of offensive profile we should expect to continue to see on the North Side. Secondary bats are safe. They have a floor (for the most part). Can’t whiff if you don’t swing the bat. Therein lies the problem. The Dansby addition is something of a microcosm for a larger issue plaguing this organization in its current form. We obviously aren’t privy to the conversations happening behind closed doors, especially as it relates to trades and transactions. Maybe Hoyer is trying, and has been trying hard since last fall, and a bigger move just hasn't come together. Maybe there’s a character thing they like about this current group. For our eyes, though, it looks like a front office content to play it safe and bank on hope above all.

Until Jed Hoyer is willing to shed safety and take a big swing, I fear we’re going to be stuck watching a whole lot of mid on offense for the foreseeable future.

View full article

[Guest234]

Poppa Joe - the origin of current Cubs ownership - did not build TD Ameritrade as the championship financial trading company but a niche player using technology made available to "average" citizens. Very conservative for a visionary and his philosophy filters down whether he bangs the gavel or not. Stats nerds should be able to appreciate that situation.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Plenty of teams are using the same strategy and getting far better results. The Cubs just still pretty much suck at developing bats at the MLB level. You needn't look much further than the Brewers. While they do have Yelich, the rest of the guys there are not stagnating and entirely feeble in this era of high heat and freakish breaking balls, and they have largely overperformed their expectations from their prospecting days.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Plenty of teams are using the same strategy and getting far better results. The Cubs just still pretty much suck at developing bats at the MLB level. You needn't look much further than the Brewers. While they do have Yelich, the rest of the guys there are not stagnating and entirely feeble in this era of high heat and freakish breaking balls, and they have largely overperformed their expectations from their prospecting days.

I don't entirely disagree here. Hoerner and Happ were both first round picks, and while I think you can be happy with what they've turned into overall, neither of them are offensive standouts. The rest of the line up is outside hires, typically at a premium, and then Morel (2.8 fWAR in 1100 PAs), and Amaya (which, so far, yikes). Looking through the 2021 top prospect lists is pretty bleak: Davis, Amaya, Hernandez (still hope yet), Howard, Morel, Strumpf, Preciado, Caissie (please save us), Roederer, Pinango, Made. Obviously the typical hit rate is low, but....that seems really low. And that's before someone like Hoerner seemingly levelling out at a 100-105 bat, Happ not taking the next step, etc.

I'm more pro-Hoyer than most, but when things are going bad he kinda starts to look like the guy in the fantasy football auction draft who got a bunch of 'steals' in that they were projected to go for $20 and he got them for $15, but he never spent more than $30 and is left with the 7th best player at every position. I still don't think there's a bad contract on the roster, which is good. Individually, I don't think Happ, Belli, Suzuki, Swanson, Hoerner, Busch, even Morel are problems to be fixed given their expected production and cost. But it's also increasingly clear that we don't have an elite offensive bat at the major league level, we're scraping Ricketts imposed budget ceilings on all these second division starters, and we've limited ourselves on how much runway we can give the PCAs (and eventually Caissies and Shaws) of the world because handing them a starting spot comes at the cost of reliable MLB production during a 'competitive window'. 

I've taken issue, and will continue to take issue, with people saying guys like Happ and Swanson suck, should be traded, are the main issue on the team, etc. They're good players being paid like good players. But starting to wonder if we've eliminated the possibility of a 95 win team for the sake of putting out an 85 win team. 

 

[Matthew Trueblood]

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't entirely disagree here. Hoerner and Happ were both first round picks, and while I think you can be happy with what they've turned into overall, neither of them are offensive standouts. The rest of the line up is outside hires, typically at a premium, and then Morel (2.8 fWAR in 1100 PAs), and Amaya (which, so far, yikes). Looking through the 2021 top prospect lists is pretty bleak: Davis, Amaya, Hernandez (still hope yet), Howard, Morel, Strumpf, Preciado, Caissie (please save us), Roederer, Pinango, Made. Obviously the typical hit rate is low, but....that seems really low. And that's before someone like Hoerner seemingly levelling out at a 100-105 bat, Happ not taking the next step, etc.

I'm more pro-Hoyer than most, but when things are going bad he kinda starts to look like the guy in the fantasy football auction draft who got a bunch of 'steals' in that they were projected to go for $20 and he got them for $15, but he never spent more than $30 and is left with the 7th best player at every position. I still don't think there's a bad contract on the roster, which is good. Individually, I don't think Happ, Belli, Suzuki, Swanson, Hoerner, Busch, even Morel are problems to be fixed given their expected production and cost. But it's also increasingly clear that we don't have an elite offensive bat at the major league level, we're scraping Ricketts imposed budget ceilings on all these second division starters, and we've limited ourselves on how much runway we can give the PCAs (and eventually Caissies and Shaws) of the world because handing them a starting spot comes at the cost of reliable MLB production during a 'competitive window'. 

I've taken issue, and will continue to take issue, with people saying guys like Happ and Swanson suck, should be traded, are the main issue on the team, etc. They're good players being paid like good players. But starting to wonder if we've eliminated the possibility of a 95 win team for the sake of putting out an 85 win team. 

 

I agree, though I don't think Happ or Swanson foreclose the possibility of building a 95-win team, even in the short term. What they do is make it more expensive, because you're paying $45 million to a couple of two- or three-win players. Alas: under this combination of front office and ownership group, making something more expensive IS a lot like eliminating it as a possibility. They refuse to spend $270 million a year on payroll. Well, ok. But you either have to get a lot better at player development and more proactive in the trade market, like the Brewers, or you have to come off that position and open the wallet. Because you can't un-spend the $45 million on Happ and Swanson, or the $17 million on Taillon, for that matter. If you're gonna pony up for average players, you have to either also pony up for superstars, or develop one yourself. Feels like they're far from doing either lately.

[squally1313]

30 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I agree, though I don't think Happ or Swanson foreclose the possibility of building a 95-win team, even in the short term. What they do is make it more expensive, because you're paying $45 million to a couple of two- or three-win players. Alas: under this combination of front office and ownership group, making something more expensive IS a lot like eliminating it as a possibility. They refuse to spend $270 million a year on payroll. Well, ok. But you either have to get a lot better at player development and more proactive in the trade market, like the Brewers, or you have to come off that position and open the wallet. Because you can't un-spend the $45 million on Happ and Swanson, or the $17 million on Taillon, for that matter. If you're gonna pony up for average players, you have to either also pony up for superstars, or develop one yourself. Feels like they're far from doing either lately.

Think you're being a little harsh on Happ and Swanson, both have been above 3 (Dansby pretty comfortably) the last couple years and Happ is projected for 3, Dansby for 3.2 even with their suboptimal starts. But yeah, a 3 win guy making $20m-$25m a year? Sure, that's not going to kill you. Six of those guys? Well now you start running into financial and logistical issues. 

Now, that's not to say that this level of dude can't go off for a year. Swanson gloved his way there last year, Bellinger played at about the same pace, Shota is already projected for 3.8. But we haven't had the elite guy at the top of the preseason WAR charts in a long time. And in my mind there's two ways to do that: pay them all of the money, which we don't have for PTR reasons but also for lack of cheap developed production reasons, or (ideally) develop that guy and watch him go off. But we're already seeing PCA in a weird timeshare situation and getting sent back to Iowa...Caissie or Alcantara blowing up would just add to that, do we give up on Morel's cheap 'production'/potential for Shaw (you can substitute 'Busch' or maybe even 'Hoerner' there)? Obviously these are all lacking nuance. But, in a crude hypothetical, you'd trade 2 $20m a year, 3 win guys, say Happ and Seiya, for a $40m-$50m/year 5 win guy and then roll the dice with the top 100 prospect making $600k. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think it's a fair criticism and potential downside of Jed's roster building approach, but I also don't want to overstate the fungibility of those stars.  Swanson was 25th in ZiPS preseason hitter WAR, and 16 of the guys ahead of them are pre-FA or otherwise with the team that developed them.  And below Swanson in that list are a number of hitters that previously have been thought of as 'stars' in that vein when they hit they were available and the shine is off or we're far enough down the long term deal that it's an afterthought while their salary is not.