Why Pete Crow-Armstrong Should Stay When Seiya Suzuki Returns

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The Chicago Cubs should be back to full strength offensively this weekend in Pittsburgh. When their best hitter returns to a crowded outfield mix, their top prospect could head back to Iowa. Let's explore whether that's the right move.

Image courtesy of © John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

 

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s assignment to Triple-A from the season’s outset had more to do with the roster composition of the Chicago Cubs than it did with him. Despite struggling massively at the plate during his 2023 cup of coffee, Crow-Armstrong hasn't fallen into disfavor. The club was simply prepared to move forward with an Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki alignment across the outfield, and Mike Tauchman supplemented the group as the fourth outfielder. 

The Cubs also rostered Miles Mastrobuoni, capable of playing just about anywhere. Considering the uncertainty of the infield – specifically on the corners – contingencies for that group made more sense when you’re talking about an Opening Day roster.

While it was Alexander Canario who got the first call when the Cubs needed to draw from the pool of Triple-A Iowa outfielders, it’s Crow-Armstrong who stuck around after Bellinger’s return. With Suzuki set to follow in the coming days, the time for the team to reintroduce their outfield trio is at hand. The obvious assumption is that Crow-Armstrong will make the quick trip back to Iowa as a result.

Should that be the case, though?

The objective answer is… probably. At the risk of undermining myself here, it makes sense from a personnel standpoint. Happ-Bellinger-Suzuki in the outfield, with Tauchman working his way in as the fourth guy and to rotate through the designated hitter spot, is probably the most logistically obvious solution.

It’s not as if Crow-Armstrong’s production is setting the world on fire, either. He’s carrying a wRC+ of 64. He’s walking less than 3 percent of the time and, consequently, reaching base at a mere .238 clip. You can’t use your speed tool if you’re not on base, right? Let the bat get a little more seasoning in Iowa and get him in there the next time the injury bug hits, or his offensive production becomes something you can no longer refuse.

At the same time, there’s a very real case for Crow-Armstrong to remain on the roster, even when it reaches maximum health. While his offensive output hasn’t necessarily shown him worthy of staying alongside more established bats, it’s not as if it’s been a total loss. He looks comfortable. His 4.16 pitches per plate appearance is a big jump from his tiny 2023 sample, and we saw him work a couple of really tough plate appearances against San Diego pitching this week. He’s making contact at a much-improved 78.5% rate, while actually swinging at a higher clip than he did in his brief big-league time last year. He’s chasing more, yes, but the contact skills are there.

While we wait for his occasional power to develop into something more consistent, his 97th-percentile sprint speed could at least put pressure on defenses in a way the rest of the lineup isn’t doing. In the last two weeks, the Cubs are striking out at the sixth-highest rate of all big league teams (25.3%). Crow-Armstrong, with an approach centered on that very thing, could improve that.

Any offensive justification of retaining him feels a bit like a stretch. But the more logical rationale for keeping Crow-Armstrong at this level on an indefinite basis is the defense. Statcast’s Fielding Run Value has him at 1, which puts him ahead of both Bellinger (-2) and Tauchman (0). Perhaps more importantly, within a smaller sample, he has 4 Defensive Runs Saved already. The Cubs have allowed fly balls or line drives to center field, right-center, or left-center in the eighth-highest share of all opponent plate appearances this year (21.9%). It’s not an outlandish figure, but it's a big enough one that Crow-Armstrong’s presence could prove a boon if he continues to get run in center. 

Logistics are not my concern here. That’s Craig Counsell’s job. I will note, though, that the team has one outfielder struggling massively and a DH spot to play with. Seiya Suzuki made a couple appearances in left field this spring. These are just observations. But there is a world in which Crow-Armstrong is part of a completely healthy Cubs lineup. Are we living in that world? Probably not yet. If Tauchman wasn’t going the way he is, then perhaps this would be a more realistic conversation.

Ultimately, this is an observation of Crow-Armstrong in a vacuum. The actual roster context probably sends him back to Iowa. I’m not so sure, however, that it’s as much of a given as it might appear. At the very least, it's a conversation worth having.

 

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

The hope is that PCA is a long term fixture in the lineup, his development should take precedence over the marginal benefit to late inning defense/baserunning(neither of which are huge gaps without him).  Let him go back to Iowa and at least look MLB-ready there(he was not before his callup), then I think the argument for him to come up and be a part-time player gets a lot stronger.

[Rex Buckingham]

yeah, TT is right. He needs the ABs at Iowa. If his bat doesn't play, he's fast Nick Madrigal in the OF

[mul21]

I say Happ goes to the IL when Seiya is back, you kick Belli to RF, Tauchman to LF and let Seiya DH.  Something is clearly not right with Ian right now.

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I say Happ goes to the IL when Seiya is back, you kick Belli to RF, Tauchman to LF and let Seiya DH.  Something is clearly not right with Ian right now.

This is where I lean too.  I think it's just bumps and bruises so should be a minimum stint, but get Happ right and keep PCA up through then, and then like TT said send Pete down because he clearly still needs the ABs (though I personally think he's looked better than his slash line).

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

This is where I lean too.  I think it's just bumps and bruises so should be a minimum stint, but get Happ right and keep PCA up through then, and then like TT said send Pete down because he clearly still needs the ABs (though I personally think he's looked better than his slash line).

I don't think that's happening. I won't say it *couldn't*, and I'm divided on whether it *should*, but I doubt it will. Happ wants to be in there, and what he's dealing with (lingering hamstring issue) is not serious enough to push him out, in his own opinion. That matters, here.

[Matthew Trueblood]

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The hope is that PCA is a long term fixture in the lineup, his development should take precedence over the marginal benefit to late inning defense/baserunning(neither of which are huge gaps without him).  Let him go back to Iowa and at least look MLB-ready there(he was not before his callup), then I think the argument for him to come up and be a part-time player gets a lot stronger.

I don't *WHOLLY* buy this, but it's worth noting that a lot of baseball people say AAA is worse than it's been in a long time right now. I'm not sure it's serving a strong developmental purpose for players at PCA's phase.

Personally, I like the idea of batting him ninth, never giving him a third PA in a game unless it be in very low leverage, but getting his defense for at least the first six or seven innings most days. (I know that's not how most people think about substitutions, taking *out* your defensive stud late, but I have long felt that was an unexplored place to find value. More balls in play early in games, before the strikeout dudes in the bullpen come in. Plus you can keep more options open for the moment in the 5th-8th when his spot is due, see what kind of hitter (righty? lefty? power? contact?) the situation demands, and you haven't burned anyone.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I don't *WHOLLY* buy this, but it's worth noting that a lot of baseball people say AAA is worse than it's been in a long time right now. I'm not sure it's serving a strong developmental purpose for players at PCA's phase.

Personally, I like the idea of batting him ninth, never giving him a third PA in a game unless it be in very low leverage, but getting his defense for at least the first six or seven innings most days. (I know that's not how most people think about substitutions, taking *out* your defensive stud late, but I have long felt that was an unexplored place to find value. More balls in play early in games, before the strikeout dudes in the bullpen come in. Plus you can keep more options open for the moment in the 5th-8th when his spot is due, see what kind of hitter (righty? lefty? power? contact?) the situation demands, and you haven't burned anyone.

I find myself more and more on an island with this among the analytical baseball obsessives so I'll admit my bias there, but I think the AAA outcomes are still meaningful.  If he was doing fine to decent but still had some yellow flags about his productivity translating to MLB, I get that argument and don't have a strong objection(especially considering the defensive value).  The sticking point for me is he was not good at Iowa pre-callup, pretty much across the board.  Not hitting for average, not hitting for much power considering league/park, not walking, not avoiding Ks, his wRC+ is higher in Chicago!  That's the foundation for my thinking, let him get to the point where we can even question if he'll translate, because especially if we think AAA is further from MLB than ever, him regressing across the board(from a fairly modest 2023 line) in his time at Iowa tells me he should spend more time there.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I find myself more and more on an island with this among the analytical baseball obsessives so I'll admit my bias there, but I think the AAA outcomes are still meaningful.  If he was doing fine to decent but still had some yellow flags about his productivity translating to MLB, I get that argument and don't have a strong objection(especially considering the defensive value).  The sticking point for me is he was not good at Iowa pre-callup, pretty much across the board.  Not hitting for average, not hitting for much power considering league/park, not walking, not avoiding Ks, his wRC+ is higher in Chicago!  That's the foundation for my thinking, let him get to the point where we can even question if he'll translate, because especially if we think AAA is further from MLB than ever, him regressing across the board(from a fairly modest 2023 line) in his time at Iowa tells me he should spend more time there.

I *am* with you on that part; I think I wrote as much when he came up. My thing (and here's where *I'm* probably on an island, but so it goes) is that I'm not sure development is ever coming. I hated the approach he was taking in Iowa, just swinging at everything when it seemed like he needed to be working on exactly the opposite. And he looks overmatched a LOT at this level, and the approach sucks. I increasingly view him as living somewhere at the intersection of Corey Patterson, Brett Jackson, and Félix Pie. He's probably got a few years as a second-division regular in him, but I'm not buying him as a long-term answer at this stage. So I could see keeping him and trusting that whatever improvements he's still capable of can just as easily be made in a defense-forward part-time role, which is where I'd be aiming to settle him anyway.