Article: Kevin Alcántara, Jefferson Rojas, and Cade Horton Keep the Cubs Farm System Buzzing

[Jason Ross]

A handful of injuries on the Chicago Cubs have seen a few prospects graduate to the major-league team. With Michael Busch, Alexander Canario and Ben Brown all having success at the MLB level, who had a good week down on the farm?

Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Cubs have been cultivating their farm system over the last handful of years, and it's a good thing. As injuries to important players (such as Seiya Suzuki, Justin Steele, Ian Happ, Julian Merryweather, and Jameson Taillon) pile up, the MLB side of things has gotten a chance to see the future. As the summer goes on, we're likely to see more and more of the young guns make their way up. How did this week on the farm go for those with bright futures?

Iowa Cubs (4-2)
The Iowa Cubs have been the biggest contributor to the MLB injury woes, but that doesn't seem to be slowing them down, as they took four of six this weekend against the Louisville Bats. Their only blemishes came in a doubleheader sweep. Iowa heads out onto the road to Buffalo over the next week, and hopefully, the weather will play nice.

🔥BJ Murray: 233 wRC+, 16 K%, 28 BB%, 1 2b., 1 HR: Good to see Murray finally start getting hot after a bit of a tough start at the Triple-A level. The switch-hitter turned it on this week, walking more than he struck out and launching a home run as well. This bodes well for the former Florida Atlantic Owl, as the Cubs are seeing the benefits of having a deep farm right now. Murray could be in line for a call-up later this summer, so getting acclimated in Triple-A will be a big step forward for him.

🔥Porter Hodge: 4 IP, 37.5 K%, 6.3 BB%, 2 R, 2 ER: Hodge is looking like the next to be called up for an audition in the Cubs bullpen. I highlighted Hodge earlier this offseason as someone with the kind of stuff to make an MLB Impact, and with his increased strike-throwing prowess this season, Hodge looks to be fulfilling that promise. The Cubs bullpen has been depleted by injuries, and Hodge (being on the 40-man roster already) could be in Chicago sooner than you realize.

🔥Owen Caissie: 156 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 14.8 BB%, 2 2b, 1 3b, 1 HR: The slugging outfielder had a nice week, cutting down on the strikeouts and hitting four extra-base hits. Pitchers have essentially given him the Barry Bonds treatment, refusing to throw him strikes. Caissie, perhaps keen on this, seemed to punish pitchers. Caissie is looking more and more like he could get an MLB call-up sooner than even I thought he would; it wouldn't be shocking to see him in Wrigley before the trade deadline.

🥶Pete Crow-Armstrong: 65 wRC+, 25 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1 HR, 3 2b: The power output of four extra-base hits here feels good and signals that perhaps the centerfielder is beginning to settle in. The wRC+ is low, but so is the .222 BABIP this week. PCA is starting to look a little less like he's swinging wildly and a little more composed. With injuries to the Cubs outfield (a recurring theme right now), a heater from the left-handed swinging PCA could see him take an injury spot if Ian Happ misses significant time.

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Tennessee Smokies (4-2)
The Smokies have become must-watch baseball--at least for the next few weeks, before a few of these names get promoted. Winning four of six against the Montgomery Biscuits this week, the Smokies make their way down to Rocket City for a six-game set. The Smokies took two of three from Rocket City to open up the season, so hopefully the good times will continue to roll.

🔥Cade Horton: 8 IP, 28.,6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 1 R, 1 ER: A two-start week for the right-hander saw Horton once again dominate Double-A hitters. The home run given up by Horton was only the second earned run he'd surrendered all season. Horton once again struck out a batter per inning while limiting walks. He's probably on a path to Iowa shortly. Maybe two more Double-A starts? 

🔥Kevin Alcantara: 299 wRC+, 13.6 K%, 4.5 BB%, 1 2b, 2 HR: Alcántara entered the week hitless on the season; he exited the week with 10 knocks. The Jaguar got back on track in a huge way and raised his season wRC+ to 95. Alcántara has the kind of stuff to go on a heater and go on one quick. Impressive way to get off the ropes; let's hope this kind of hitting continues. 

🥶Matt Shaw: 89 wRC+, 20 K%, 20 BB%: This is what a "bad" week for Matt Shaw looks like at the Double-A level right now: a roughly 90 wRC+ where he walks as much as he strikes out and has a BABIP in the .260s. For most, that's not enough to get a "cold" sticker, but for Shaw, who's abused Double-A pitching to this point, it qualifies. I expect he'll go bonkers again shortly. 

🥶Brandon Birdsell: 3.1 IP, 9.5 K%, 14.3 BB%, 9 R, 5 ER: A second bad start of the year for Birdsell. Believed to be on a fast track to Iowa, it looks like he's going to have to continue to do some work at Tennessee right now. Walking more than striking out is usually a recipe for disaster. Hopefully, after a few rocky starts, the right-hander settles in; Iowa could use some depth in the rotation. 

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South Bend Cubs (2-5)
Yeesh. This was just a bad week all around for South Bend, punctuated with a 19-4 drubbing on April 17th. Hopefully, the tide begins to turn for the 4-11 South Bend Cubs, as they head home to face Quad Cities this week. 

🔥Jefferson Rojas: 127 wRC+, 12.5 K%, 4.2 BB%, 2 2b: Regardless of the affiliate's record right now, not an ounce of blame can be placed on Rojas's bat. He did make another error this week, but he's been 38% better than league average and he's still not even 19 years old. While Rojas may eventually have to slide to third base, the Cubs may have their next star prospect. 

🔥Rafael Morel: 187 wRC+, 25 K% 12.5 BB%, 1 2b: Morel only played three times this week, but did some damage. The center fielder is showing little power, but a lot of bat-to-ball skills. The hope is that the power will come, but he's done well on the season so far. Being that he's 22, it wouldn't be shocking to see him in Tennessee at some point if things keep going well.

🥶Will Sanders: 1.2 IP, 18.2 K%, 18.2 BB%, 6 R, 6 ER: The 2023 mid-round draft selection has struggled through his first two professional starts. It was Sanders who started the 15-run loss, and he couldn't make it out of the second. The entire loss wasn't on him, but you're going to land on this list when you're the beginning of that kind of game. Hopefully, the former Gamecock begins to settle in and find his groove; he had some pre-season hype last year as a back-end first or second-round selection, and seeing that upside from him again would be great.

🥶Ed Howard: 6 wRC+, 25 K%, 25 BB%: I don't think we're ever going to get to see what the former 2020 first-round pick once had to offer, sadly. A devastating hip injury seems to have sapped any explosiveness left in the Chicagoland native's game. I know he'll get the label of a "bust," but I just don't think he ever got a fair shake. He was aggressively promoted after a year with, essentially, no competitive baseball, was then subsequently injured, and has never looked right. I hope in a week or two I look back at this and feel stupid (lookin' at you, Keegan Thompson) but it doesn't feel like there's much left in the tank here.

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Myrtle Beach Pelicans (2-3)
Another rain-shortened week for the Pelicans, who managed to win two of five this weekend against the visiting Kannapolis Cannon Ballers. With a handful of interesting players off to good starts in extended spring training (Alfonsin Rosario, for example) and with Derniche Valdez off the restricted list, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans will likely get reinforcements over the next month or so. Myrtle Beach has yet to take a series, and will look to do so as they visit Lynchburg starting on Tuesday.

🔥Christopher Paciolla: 131 wRC+. 26.1 K%, 17.4 BB%, 2 2b: A much better week for Paciolla, and hopefully a sign of good things to come. With more walks and some doubles, the hope here is that the infielder finds his stride. The Cubs were reportedly pretty high on his potential coming into the 2022 Draft, so it'd be nice for him and the Pelicans if he can get going.

🤷‍♂️Luis Rujano: 2.1 IP, 50 K%, 10 BB%, 2 R, 2 ER: Fresh off the developmental list, Rujano showed solid control/command, but he he did get hit a bit. We can chalk this up as a tune-up, and hopefully, the 2022 pick will breeze through his next few appearances. There's a real breakout possibility with Rujano, so it'll be an interesting to follow.

🥶Mason McGwire: .2 IP, 20 K%, 60 BB%, 0 R, 0 ER: The son of the great Mark McGwire did not make it out of the first this week. While he did not give up any runs, walking three and hitting your pitch limit (the Cubs generally employ a ~30-pitch maximum per inning) before the end of the first is not a good look. Hopefully, the control comes back for him next game. 

🥶Carter Trice: 19 wRC+. 41.2 K%, 17.6% BB%: Trice just hasn't started the 2024 season well. With inflated K% and a lack of power so far, the catcher for whom some had high hopes has generally underperformed so far. The good news is that the season is quite young, and all he needs is a single week like Kevin Alcántara's to start turning this around. (Is that all?)

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Did I forget someone on this list? Who do you think had a good week down on the farm? Let me know in the comments below!

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[JBears79]

Nice to see Paciolla have a good week. 

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Trice has a .131 IsoSLG in a lg with a .102 IsoSLG, and at the catcher position in tough home park. I get the bottom line is the bottom line but if we’re hawking numbers from strangers there could always be more. As the guy pointing Trice as a likely prospect, possibly more with that development stuff given the new position at the top of or even off the D spectrum, the expectation was never a big obvious breakout let alone start to finish numbers. 

I’d also say, if Murray keeps it up, the callup will be pretty early. Morel has avoided being unplayable at 3B but he’s not good there and teaming with a half dozen low ceiling bodies older than last year isn’t much of a solution or even band aid 

Trice is also a 21 year old who played in the ACC. Look, I'm not writing him off in any way shape or form, we're talking April 22nd. But he has a K% touching 42% right now in Myrtle Beach. That's just a brutal run of games for him, ballpark be damned, because that's on him more so than a ballpark or the weather at this level. So far in just complex league and Low-A he's got a total of 34 K's in roughly 100 PAs. Gotta' call a spade a spade here; rough start for him. The .130 ISO isn't the worst thing, ballpark included, but when you couple it wit the K%...you kind of need to hit for power if you're going to strike out like that. 4 XBH in half a month so far probably isn't enough. 

Good news: He's got under 100 PA's professional! Last week, Kevin Alcantara had 0 hits. Now he has 10, and a wRC+ of 95 because of like, six good game. Carter just needs to make contact for like, a good 10 stretch of games and we can all put the strike out issues behind us. It'd make the .130 ISO better, too. More contact will probably result in more power as well! A good reminder: cold update doesn't mean I think he sucks...it just means he had a week that wasn't good. Sadly, Trice just hasn't had it yet. I'm still super rooting for him, his bat could be interesting at a position that doesn't usually hit well. 

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Nice to see Paciolla have a good week. 

Finally. He's been a disappointment dating back to last year. Especially coming out of the draft, this felt like a pick the Cubs were kind of high on and it felt like they thought they had a steal on hand. Need more than a week, but it'd be nice to get him going and start to see the promise.

[JBears79]

17 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Finally. He's been a disappointment dating back to last year. Especially coming out of the draft, this felt like a pick the Cubs were kind of high on and it felt like they thought they had a steal on hand. Need more than a week, but it'd be nice to get him going and start to see the promise.

Yeah I agree. Kid is still young so hopefully he gets going and has a strong year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA had Alcántara as the 12th hottest prospect in all of baseball last week.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

BA had Alcántara as the 12th hottest prospect in all of baseball last week.

It's obvious BA reads my weekly recaps. 

/s