Article: Keegan Thompson Took Advantage of a League-Wide Approach Flaw Monday Night

[Matthew Trueblood]

In an exciting comeback win Monday night, the Chicago Cubs did just about everything right. They still required some good luck along the way, but at the end of the game, they sewed up the victory with savvy work by a veteran catcher and a pitcher on the brink.

Image courtesy of © Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

As we discussed over the weekend, Keegan Thompson didn't go down to Iowa this spring and magically ameliorate all the problems that plagued him in 2023. On the contrary, his performance data suggests that he's further from regaining high-end big-league stuff than ever. His first two appearances since being called up have been mightily encouraging, though, and whereas the first was easy to dismiss (low leverage, low stress, bad opposing offense), Monday night's win was much more difficult a test.

The Diamondbacks are a tough team to get out, especially when there's a runner in scoring position whom you can't afford to allow to score. They don't swing and miss much, and have enough patience to force you into the strike zone. When Thompson entered the game in the bottom of the 10th Monday, that was the task he faced: keep a would-be comeback alive, with zero margin for error.

Fortunately for him, there is a secret antidote to teams with good contact skills and patience, in extra innings: half of that skill set evaporates. Maybe it's the bizarreness of the artificial baserunner who starts each inning on base. Maybe it's just anxiety and an undue rush to finish off an opponent. One way or another, though, when the game goes past its usual stopping point, everyone's strike zone gets bigger.

Though listed as "10," the rightmost entry above actually represents all extra frames. Hitters get antsy and chase bad pitches at a significantly higher rate under the pressure of an extra-inning game. As Bleacher Nation noted on Twitter Tuesday morning, Thompson and Yan Gomes seized upon that vulnerability and induced some bad swings from the Diamondbacks, helping the team hold onto the one-run lead they scratched out in the top of the 11th.

I'm not sure that, had the situation demanded hammering away within the zone, Thompson could have done so successfully. He was, delightfully and somewhat stunningly, back up to 94 miles per hour last night, after sitting 90-91 in his appearances in Iowa. Maybe his stuff has been unlocked again, through some mechanical tweak or some major mental breakthrough. For now, though, it's healthy to maintain some skepticism of Thompson.

The genius in his appearance Monday night, especially in his second inning of work, was in not trying to dominate within the zone. The credit for that call can be divided evenly between Thompson and Gomes, perhaps, but the credit for executing it so well goes mostly to Thompson. This is a road map to success for other middle relievers thrust into dangerous extra-inning situations: take advantage of a global hyper-aggressiveness that sets in when the Manfred Man takes his lead off second.

Looking forward, too, we'll want to watch Thompson's velocity closely. Throwing in the mid-90s is essential to his effectiveness. When he dipped down to barely bumping 92 late last season and opened his Triple-A campaign the same way in 2024, there was cause for major concern. Perhaps he was sandbagging a little, rather than risk injury in the minor leagues. Perhaps he and Tommy Hottovy found something in a side session upon his return to the team last week. Either way, if he starts throwing 94 on a regular basis again, Thompson has a chance to resurrect his career. If he can take advantage of hitters' aggressiveness as well as he did Monday night, that goes double. The pitching-thin Cubs could benefit hugely from a Thompson revival.

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[Billy62]

Pretty good analysis Matt! Just one observation on my part. Good teams win these kind of ball games. Meaning that when it comes time to shut the door and get that key hit, or when you need a pitcher to shut down a team that you feel may not have the stuff, sometimes they will all come thru for you in a pinch. For the second game in a row, I sat on the edge of my seat and watched somewhat precariously as a good team took care of business. My health requires that I show some confidence in this team, at least as much as they show in themselves. Outside of that, I will just bask in the afterglow of the victory and shout out CUBS WIN, CUBS WIN! 🙂

Edited April 16, 2024 by Billy62
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[UMFan83]

Enjoyed this read.  Makes me feel better as I saw all the praise for Keegan and was thinking 'pump the breaks' because he was not really throwing strikes at all in either inning.  Felt like he got fortunate but seems like a logical strategy that worked.

[chopsx9]

Is there a way to break down the count of each pitch?  If his 1st pitches to each batter is a K it's a different scenario to the first being a B to each batter.  In the first scenario maybe the latter pitches are purposely chase pitches whereas in the second he presumably would still be trying to throw strikes and still missing; swinging the outlook pendulum to the luck side of things.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

48 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Is there a way to break down the count of each pitch?  If his 1st pitches to each batter is a K it's a different scenario to the first being a B to each batter.  In the first scenario maybe the latter pitches are purposely chase pitches whereas in the second he presumably would still be trying to throw strikes and still missing; swinging the outlook pendulum to the luck side of things.

Keegan threw a first pitch strike to 3 of 7 hitters last night(1/4 in the 10th and 2/3 in the 11th) so while he wasn't literally in a position to throw chase pitches more often, I do think there's something to the situational thinking.  He entered with the winning run on 2nd and no outs, so while he didn't exactly have pinpoint command, I suspect the plan was that if he missed, he missed off the plate until he absolutely had to challenge in the zone.  Maybe not a coincidence he was in the zone more often in the 11th when he had some margin for error.