Article: Say Your Goodbyes to the Comparisons Between Chrostopher Morel and Javier Baez

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The Chicago Cubs just might have an infielder with 40-homer upside, but without the hulking physique of the game's other great sluggers. Sound familiar? Not so fast.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Javier Báez is one of my favorite players to wear a Chicago Cubs uniform. I know I am not unique in that regard. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that nothing said herein about his output or skill set is meant to disparage the player. At some point, though, he locked in who he is, for better and worse

In the field or on the basepaths, he created moments on a baseball diamond that you were sure you had never seen before. While the timing of his trade to New York aligned with the departures of much of the rest of the team’s championship core, the void he left just felt larger (save for Anthony Rizzo, whose trade left a different type of absence). There was a level of eagerness and anticipation that vanished from this lineup and has been difficult to replicate since. 

That's why the comparisons between Báez and Christopher Morel seemed at least mildly appropriate as they gained steam last season. A young, charismatic presence. A product of the Cubs’ own system. Intense swings. Loud contact. Genuine emotion on the field. It made a certain degree of sense at the time, as Morel completed his breakout in 2023. 

The more tangible components of their respective games reinforced the comparison. This specifically manifested in their free-swinging style. On three occasions, Báez has posted a strikeout rate over 30 percent. Morel has done it in each of the last two seasons. As a Cub, Báez posted an ISO of at least .250 twice. Morel did it last year. Big power, bigger whiffs. You could argue it’s natural that the two would be juxtaposed with one another in a Cubs context. 

Those comparisons seem less appropriate now, for two main reasons on opposite sides of the ball. Let’s knock out the defensive comparison first. Báez has largely always been a plus-defender. He’s never registered as a below-average glove by OAA, and only once fell on the wrong side of 0 according to DRS at shortstop. Morel hasn’t found a defensive home, and has struggled early on in adapting to a more permanent spot at third base. Of course, that aspect was never the reason for the comparison. It was always about the offense.

At the plate, Báez never appeared to make the adjustment with regard to plate discipline. If anything, as his career has unfolded, his approach has gotten markedly worse.. His career strikeout rate sits at 27.9 percent. He’s walked at a clip south of 5 percent. After chasing more than 40 percent of pitches outside the zone early in his career, he’s exceeded 46 percent in that category each of the last four seasons. Early on in 2024, he’s over 55 percent in terms of chase rate. 

His inability to rein in the impulse to swing has resulted in steadily declining contact quality, as well. In 2022, Báez ranked 165th out of 207 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances in Hard Hit% (26.8). Last year, he was 183rd out of 212 (28.4). He posted identical groundball rates of 49.9% in each of the two seasons. While the Cubs were willing to allow Báez to compensate for his obscene power with the shortcomings of his game, those shortcomings have taken the wheel in the years that followed. It’s left very little value from the bat. 

Conversely, Morel’s offensive game is maturing into something almost entirely dissimilar to that of Báez (if it wasn’t already). Last year, Javy had the worst chase rate in MLB. He’s also seen 3.66 pitches per plate appearance for his career, including figures of 3.55 and 3.60 in each of the last two seasons. Morel, meanwhile, sits 43rd percentile in chase rate (not great, but not Báez), and is at 3.86 P/PA appearance after two full seasons of big-league experience. Morel’s chase rate, at 32.4 percent in each of his two seasons, is miles lower than the 45.0 percent figure Báez has turned in for his career.

There’s probably an argument to be made that the similarities in their strikeout rate are due more to Morel working deeper counts than Morel having a similar approach to Báez, especially when you consider that he’s striking out almost exactly half the time with a two-strike count. Ultimately, Morel is not only making more consistent contact, but also demonstrating a higher quality of it. He jumped his Hard Hit% up from 36.8 percent in 2022 to 41.9 percent in 2023. There’s growth there, but 2024 is showing early signs of being his true establishment as an upper-tier hitter.

Through six games, Morel has struck out only twice. His chase rate is a mere 3.2 percent, with a 10 percent jump in his Z-Swing% (80.4). His contact rate is at 89.5 percent. Those are genuinely hilarious numbers. Obviously, this is too small a sample to verify anything, and pitchers are finding the zone almost 60 percent of the time against him – which will surely change – but it does speak to Morel’s intention in refining his plate approach.

From Craig Counsell, via the Cubs’ official site:

“Really, since the start of Spring Training, it’s just been hard-hit balls and a real controlled aggression, is the best way I can describe it. There hasn’t been chase … That’s just going to make him really dangerous.”

Even with the inherent unsustainability of his early plate discipline, a demonstration of growth would be the final nail in the coffin of the comparison. Morel already had more of an awareness of the zone and control in taking pitches, but being able to drop the Chase% on any meaningful level would yield massive dividends in his counting stats and strikeout/walk rates.

It’s interesting that our collective perception of their respective profiles is as similar as it is. “Big power, bigger whiffs” represents a massive oversimplification. Morel has always made better swing decisions. If the first week is any indication, that gap is going to grow into something to make us all feel silly for thinking it in the first place.

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[matto1233]

Nice to know someone else has been watching Morel’s strikeout and chase rates as closely as I have to start the year! Would be a great sign if it continues. 

[JBears79]

This is why I was so adamant about not trading Morel in the offseason. The improved contact and lack of chase is even noticeable in the eye test imo. He looks much more confident and mature at the plate so far this season.

[Stratos]

Imagine what Javy would have done if he had even average plate discipline.

[Stratos]

The offspeed/breaking stuff away seemed like an achilles heel for Morel last year.  Big pull hitter.  Interested to see how he deals with that stuff this year.  I suspect Canario may be similar based on the approach.

Texas and Rockies don't have the best pitching so i'll reserve judgement, but he's looked great since ST.  Power is obviously there.  Contact % in the zone was also an issue for him last year.

Edited April 4, 2024 by Stratos