Article: What to expect from Jordan Wicks in 2024

[Jason Ross]

Jordan Wicks got promoted for the Cubs' stretch run last year, and helped keep the Cubs afloat until he gassed out. While some really good things can come through from his total season line, concerns over the lack of swings and misses have caused some to sour a bit. What should you expect from the tough lefty in 2024?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

As was recently brought up by a handful of our users here on North Side Baseball, Jordan Wicks is kind of a polarizing prospect. Recently named one of MLB Pipeline's top 10 left-handed pitching prospects headed into 2024, he nonetheless makes it hard to tell how excited you should be, and our own posters had quite the lively debate in our MiLB forum about it. On one hand, he's a fascinating study of the game, and a pitcher who clearly comes by the "bulldog" and "cerebral" monikers honestly. On the other, his lack of fastball velocity and lack of incredible stuff has some worried as to what the upside is on the former Kansas State University Wildcat.

Let's start off with the concerns: the 11% whiff rate Wicks had during his first 34 innings at the MLB level. Compared to the league average, which sits just south of 18%, this is troubling. If he kept that rate up over the course of 162 IP, he'd have finished dead last in baseball, with pitchers like Jordan Lyles and Patrick Corbin--not elite company, those two. Added to that, Wicks had only a single pitch grade out well on Stuff+: his changeup. These have caused concerns, and rightfully so, it's very hard to be successful when you're getting this little swing-and-miss. But I also think there's hope, and that while these concerns are valid, there's a light at the end of the tunnel.

The first thing to know is that the Whiff% issue that Wicks had the MLB level is not something he had at Triple-A Iowa, in similar sample sizes. Yes, Triple A is a lower level of competition than MLB, but despite having a strikeout rate that wasn't impressive on the surface, his actual Whiff% was well above the Triple-A standard. Whereas Triple-A average Whiff% sits very close to the MLB average (just below 18%), Wicks had a Whiff% well over 23% at that level, with his changeup doing most of the damage. Why the disparity in whiff rates then? I think we can look at his pitch location and get to the bottom of that pretty quickly. 

On the left, you'll see his pitch-frequency heat map from Triple A. On the right, see the same from his time in the majors. Notice how Wicks shied away from the middle of the plate and really looked to get the ball off the plate. It's hard to say exactly why the change was made, but would it be shocking to see Wicks, a rookie called-up during a postseason chase, be a little extra risk-averse? Making sure that he wasn't the cause of a demise? I certainly think that makes sense, regardless of how anecdotal it is.

The change had profound effects on his whiff rates. Below, you'll see his whiff rates in Triple A (left) compared to MLB (right). By being just a little extra careful, he wasn't able to generate the same swings and misses in the zone, because the pitches were just being thrown outside of the zone just a little more. This is also highlighted in his strike rate in MLB dropping nearly 14% from his strike rate at Triple A. You just aren't going to get the swing and the misses you were used to getting if you're not going to throw your pitches in the zone as often. 

The positives are that, even in small samples, Wicks was still getting swings and misses with the changeup. He threw his changeup roughly 30 percent of the time, and got a swing and a miss on 42.9 percent of swings on it. That's good enough for the highest Whiff% of any pitcher over that 162 IP marker. Do I think Wicks will lead the league in Whiff% on his changeup? No, that's a very hard thing to do, but it goes to show Wicks can get whiffs even if he's throwing a little less in the zone.

Where Wicks really struggled was in getting his other pitches to generate those swings and misses, and I wonder how much of it was due to just not having the confidence yet to come into the zone (going back to my previous point of being risk-averse). Once more, look at where Wicks threw his fastball in Triple A (left), compared to MLB (right). It looks like someone who was really trying to avoid the middle of the plate. His Whiff% on his fastball dipped, from 23% to 11%, with the jump in levels, and I think the pitch location probably has something to do with that.

There's one other interesting rabbit hole that came up when looking at Jordan Wicks, however, that gives me a lot of hope for the future: and that's just what he was able to do despite the lack of whiffs: he limited hard contact. During his stint at the MLB level, the former Wildcat saw his average exit velocity sit around 86.5 mph. Using the same sample size of pitchers as previously, this would put Wicks second in the league, behind Corbin Burnes. He also limited launch angle; with an average LA of just 6 degrees. That would have been less than half the league average, and good for fifth in baseball. Two of the other pitchers who finished in the top-5 of limiting launch angle were Logan Webb and Kyle Bradish, both of whom also joined the likes of Wicks, Corbin and Lyles in the bottom 5 of Whiff%. What that tells me is that he can get away with being in the zone more than he was. More pitches in the zone likely mean more whiffs, and when guys swing, he's going to be able to continue to limit that damage if the control remains.

So what does this all mean for Wicks's future? I think it means that while the Whiff% is clearly something to monitor, we can see that other quality arms (such as Webb and Bradish) were capable of surviving low Whiff% seasons, partially by eliminating balls in the air--something Wicks does quite well. That's not saying Wicks is Bradish or Webb reincarnate, either; only that worrying a ton about his 34 innings of low whiff% seems premature. Context matters. We can see that Wicks was above-average in similar time spent in Triple A, and we can also see that he shied away from throwing his pitches in the zone. I do think there's probably some work that needs to be done with his pitch mix; I think he's dying for a pitch that separates itself from the fastball/cutter/changeup--a curveball with sharper vertical movement, or a slider that has more horizontal movement... something to fill in some gaps. But I also think he's just someone who needs to grow into being an MLB pitcher a bit more, find the confidence to come into the zone a little more, especially, because when he does, guys just don't square him up. I think if he can do that, make those adjustments, that something in between Bradish (3.8 fWAR, 3.53 xFIP) and Kyle Freeland (1.2 fWAR 5.13 xFIP) is where I'd expect him to be in 2024. It should be important to remember, too: pitchers who keep the ball on the ground often, and limit hard contact, have innate abilities to "beat" their FIP, or in other words, increase run prevention past what things like fielding-independent-pitching would suggest they'd be capable of. Couple that with a very strong infield defense and I'm pretty hopeful for the future on Wicks, all things considered. 

What do you think about Jordan Wicks moving into next season? Do you think he needs to come into the zone just a bit more? Or are you still concerned with the whiff rates moving forward?

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the whiff rates, Wicks was part of the pitchers panel at Cubs Convention, and one thing he said was when he went home after the the season some folks asked why he threw more 2-seamers than he ever has.  And his response was jokey but telling, essentially 'do you see the infielders/defense I have behind me?  I'd be stupid not to let guys put the ball in play'.  He also on more than one occasion had a 'I'm just here to do what they tell me' attitude of self-deprecation, especially being on a panel with more accomplished big leaguers(Hendricks, Steele, Alzolay).

Now both of these comments were in passing so I don't want to over-index on them, but especially given the small sample size I think there's very likely merit in that Wicks was making his first starts as a big leaguer in the middle of a crucial stretch run, so he simplified and tried to play his part and lean on his teammates. He knows himself well enough to know he's not gonna just challenge MLB hitters middle-middle with a 4 seamer when times get tough, but as he moves forward he may be less likely to 'concede' and prioritize strikes/balls in play over a few more swings and misses.

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

On the whiff rates, Wicks was part of the pitchers panel at Cubs Convention, and one thing he said was when he went home after the the season some folks asked why he threw more 2-seamers than he ever has.  And his response was jokey but telling, essentially 'do you see the infielders/defense I have behind me?  I'd be stupid not to let guys put the ball in play'.  He also on more than one occasion had a 'I'm just here to do what they tell me' attitude of self-deprecation, especially being on a panel with more accomplished big leaguers(Hendricks, Steele, Alzolay).

Now both of these comments were in passing so I don't want to over-index on them, but especially given the small sample size I think there's very likely merit in that Wicks was making his first starts as a big leaguer in the middle of a crucial stretch run, so he simplified and tried to play his part and lean on his teammates. He knows himself well enough to know he's not gonna just challenge MLB hitters middle-middle with a 4 seamer when times get tough, but as he moves forward he may be less likely to 'concede' and prioritize strikes/balls in play over a few more swings and misses.

Good catch on the quote! I hadn't even seen that, so it makes sense. It also validates my assumptions in looking at the pitch heat-maps. It really does look like he was looking to hit that outer corner (and off of it) just a bit too much between the two levels. I think if you shifted that a few inches to the spot it was in Triple-A, while the whiff rates may never be "great" that he'll climb the leaderboard a bit from "worst in the league" to "not great". And if he can continue to limit exit velocity and launch angle, should be a pretty good, stable arm for an MLB rotation.

[CubinNY]

It looked to me like both Wicks and Steele ran out of gas last year. I expect they’ll be ready for the grind. I think Steele will have a harder time replicating the results than Wicks will. But I’m bullish on the Cubs starting rotation. 

Edited January 20, 2024 by CubinNY

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

It looked to me like both Wicks and Steele ran out of gas last year. I expect they’ll be ready for the grind. I think Steele will have a harder time replicating the results than Wicks will. But I’m bullish on the Cubs starting rotation. 

I'm liking the idea of a 6 man rotation. I think Steele and imanaga as well as the Kiddie Corp could flourish with this schedule

[javy knows my name]

I love the insight about his AAA whiff rates. Suggests that a pretty small sample size should normalize a bit. And kudos to linking to our forum; I think we need more of that in these articles. Good article

[Michael Busch Light]

This is a good read.  Interesting stuff 

[Stratos]

He threw his 4-seamer and chanegup each about 29% of the time in the MLB.  His 4-seamer got absolutely destroyed by hitters.  The sinker did a lot better.  Maybe the 4-seamer makes the change-up better because they look similar, compared to the sinker, I don't know.

So he needs a decent fastball, at least from what he showed last season.

Between AAA and MLB last year he had about a 7.0 K/9 over 67 IP, which is troubling.