What to expect from Jordan Wicks in 2024

As was recently brought up by a handful of our users here on North Side Baseball, Jordan Wicks is kind of a polarizing prospect. Recently named one of MLB Pipeline's top 10 left-handed pitching prospects headed into 2024, he nonetheless makes it hard to tell how excited you should be, and our own posters had quite the lively debate in our MiLB forum about it. On one hand, he's a fascinating study of the game, and a pitcher who clearly comes by the "bulldog" and "cerebral" monikers honestly. On the other, his lack of fastball velocity and lack of incredible stuff has some worried as to what the upside is on the former Kansas State University Wildcat.

Let's start off with the concerns: the 11% whiff rate Wicks had during his first 34 innings at the MLB level. Compared to the league average, which sits just south of 18%, this is troubling. If he kept that rate up over the course of 162 IP, he'd have finished dead last in baseball, with pitchers like Jordan Lyles and Patrick Corbin--not elite company, those two. Added to that, Wicks had only a single pitch grade out well on Stuff+: his changeup. These have caused concerns, and rightfully so, it's very hard to be successful when you're getting this little swing-and-miss. But I also think there's hope, and that while these concerns are valid, there's a light at the end of the tunnel.

The first thing to know is that the Whiff% issue that Wicks had the MLB level is not something he had at Triple-A Iowa, in similar sample sizes. Yes, Triple A is a lower level of competition than MLB, but despite having a strikeout rate that wasn't impressive on the surface, his actual Whiff% was well above the Triple-A standard. Whereas Triple-A average Whiff% sits very close to the MLB average (just below 18%), Wicks had a Whiff% well over 23% at that level, with his changeup doing most of the damage. Why the disparity in whiff rates then? I think we can look at his pitch location and get to the bottom of that pretty quickly. 

On the left, you'll see his pitch-frequency heat map from Triple A. On the right, see the same from his time in the majors. Notice how Wicks shied away from the middle of the plate and really looked to get the ball off the plate. It's hard to say exactly why the change was made, but would it be shocking to see Wicks, a rookie called-up during a postseason chase, be a little extra risk-averse? Making sure that he wasn't the cause of a demise? I certainly think that makes sense, regardless of how anecdotal it is.

The change had profound effects on his whiff rates. Below, you'll see his whiff rates in Triple A (left) compared to MLB (right). By being just a little extra careful, he wasn't able to generate the same swings and misses in the zone, because the pitches were just being thrown outside of the zone just a little more. This is also highlighted in his strike rate in MLB dropping nearly 14% from his strike rate at Triple A. You just aren't going to get the swing and the misses you were used to getting if you're not going to throw your pitches in the zone as often. 

The positives are that, even in small samples, Wicks was still getting swings and misses with the changeup. He threw his changeup roughly 30 percent of the time, and got a swing and a miss on 42.9 percent of swings on it. That's good enough for the highest Whiff% of any pitcher over that 162 IP marker. Do I think Wicks will lead the league in Whiff% on his changeup? No, that's a very hard thing to do, but it goes to show Wicks can get whiffs even if he's throwing a little less in the zone.

Where Wicks really struggled was in getting his other pitches to generate those swings and misses, and I wonder how much of it was due to just not having the confidence yet to come into the zone (going back to my previous point of being risk-averse). Once more, look at where Wicks threw his fastball in Triple A (left), compared to MLB (right). It looks like someone who was really trying to avoid the middle of the plate. His Whiff% on his fastball dipped, from 23% to 11%, with the jump in levels, and I think the pitch location probably has something to do with that.

There's one other interesting rabbit hole that came up when looking at Jordan Wicks, however, that gives me a lot of hope for the future: and that's just what he was able to do despite the lack of whiffs: he limited hard contact. During his stint at the MLB level, the former Wildcat saw his average exit velocity sit around 86.5 mph. Using the same sample size of pitchers as previously, this would put Wicks second in the league, behind Corbin Burnes. He also limited launch angle; with an average LA of just 6 degrees. That would have been less than half the league average, and good for fifth in baseball. Two of the other pitchers who finished in the top-5 of limiting launch angle were Logan Webb and Kyle Bradish, both of whom also joined the likes of Wicks, Corbin and Lyles in the bottom 5 of Whiff%. What that tells me is that he can get away with being in the zone more than he was. More pitches in the zone likely mean more whiffs, and when guys swing, he's going to be able to continue to limit that damage if the control remains.

So what does this all mean for Wicks's future? I think it means that while the Whiff% is clearly something to monitor, we can see that other quality arms (such as Webb and Bradish) were capable of surviving low Whiff% seasons, partially by eliminating balls in the air--something Wicks does quite well. That's not saying Wicks is Bradish or Webb reincarnate, either; only that worrying a ton about his 34 innings of low whiff% seems premature. Context matters. We can see that Wicks was above-average in similar time spent in Triple A, and we can also see that he shied away from throwing his pitches in the zone. I do think there's probably some work that needs to be done with his pitch mix; I think he's dying for a pitch that separates itself from the fastball/cutter/changeup--a curveball with sharper vertical movement, or a slider that has more horizontal movement... something to fill in some gaps. But I also think he's just someone who needs to grow into being an MLB pitcher a bit more, find the confidence to come into the zone a little more, especially, because when he does, guys just don't square him up. I think if he can do that, make those adjustments, that something in between Bradish (3.8 fWAR, 3.53 xFIP) and Kyle Freeland (1.2 fWAR 5.13 xFIP) is where I'd expect him to be in 2024. It should be important to remember, too: pitchers who keep the ball on the ground often, and limit hard contact, have innate abilities to "beat" their FIP, or in other words, increase run prevention past what things like fielding-independent-pitching would suggest they'd be capable of. Couple that with a very strong infield defense and I'm pretty hopeful for the future on Wicks, all things considered. 

What do you think about Jordan Wicks moving into next season? Do you think he needs to come into the zone just a bit more? Or are you still concerned with the whiff rates moving forward?