Article: Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto Signing with the Dodgers Finally Free Up the Market?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Fairly late on Thursday night, the Dodgers agreed to a monstrous 12-year, $325-million deal with right-handed Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The big three dominos of this offseason have fallen. What now?

Image courtesy of © Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

Those scrappy Dodgers are really starting to put something together. It was tough to figure how they'd get over the hump with just Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, and Tyler Glasnow to fuel their World Series aspirations. Now, they finally have a high-priced star to stick into the mix, committing not just $325 million in salary to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but another $50 million and change in the form of a posting fee. Yamamoto, 25, also has two opt-outs in this deal. 

Thankfully for the Cubs, the Dodgers only become a real problem for them if they first overcome the other four teams in their division and make it to the postseason. Given the overall structure of the NL right now, it's unlikely that the Dodgers will be a playoff opponent unless and until the Cubs beat someone else in a short series, so the team just needs to focus their energies on actually becoming the best team in the NL Central. Right now, even that would require some significant action.

We've finally reached the point where, after what is likely to be a quiet period around the holidays, moves should start to happen in quick succession. There were three key dominos in this offseason market: Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Juan Soto. Now, all three have fallen, and that will bring clarity to conversations teams are having with top free agents Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, and Shota Imanaga.

Snell really isn't a Cubs target. While there is one way to frame things in which he seems a good fit for the team, it's never been a good fit. To Cubs fans, the need for more swing-and-miss from the starting rotation is glaring, but the Cubs themselves prioritize things other than whiffs when they shop for starters. The heat of Snell's market should work in the Cubs' favor; they're much more likely to target Imanaga or Montgomery.

It's Imanaga whose market figures to move fastest now that Yamamoto is taken care of. With the Dodgers unlikely to pursue him now, the Cubs could be contending with the Giants, Yankees, and Red Sox for him, but he has to sign with a team by Jan, 11. Quickly, the player and his various suitors will need to gain some clarity. The exciting thing about Imanaga is that he combines the kind of high-strikeout upside Snell offers with good control. The big drawback is that he might run into home run trouble in MLB, at least in the short term.

The other big knock-on effect here is that, since the Mets missed out on Yamamoto, they might turn their vision more fully toward 2025. Going all the way back to late July, they've been sending mixed (but broadly unenthusiastic) signals about their own feelings of viability for 2024. They made a serious bid for Yamamoto's services, but even as they did so, many maintained that they would pivot toward a longer-term focus if they couldn't land him. 

Will that mean that the Cubs revisit discussions of a Pete Alonso trade? It's not out of the question. Alonso is the kind of transformative offensive addition that has seemed out of reach ever since Ohtani and Soto each found other homes. It would be a short-term addition, but the impact in that one season of remaining club control could be enormous. Whether Jed Hoyer will have the stomach for the price new Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns demands in Alonso talks, however, remains to be seen.

For most Cubs fans, losing out on Yamamoto will feel a bit less painful than not landing Ohtani, because the team more publicly backed away from the sweepstakes for him over the 10 days leading up to the move. There were several reasons why Yamamoto was my top free-agent fit for the Cubs, though, and he's the player who could have most helped the team for the short and long term. Alas, it long ago became clear that that wasn't to be. Now, at least the Cubs will be able to get down to brass tacks with potential partners on key acquisitions, be it Bellinger, Hoskins, Alonso, Shane Bieber, Josh Naylor, or others.

Do the Dodgers' big expenditures bother you? What move are you most anxious to see the Cubs make, now that the market figures to open up?

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[Bertz]

Hopefully this dislodges things.  Then again there's no real reason the bats shouldn't have been moving by now so who knows.  Baseball executives will do absolutely anything possible to put off making moves.  That's why for instance making the trade deadline later is easily the dumbest thing I regularly see otherwise smart people suggest.

So we should start seeing movement.  But between the holidays and the next Diamond hearing and the arb deadline Baseball has three ready-made excuses lined up for the next three weeks.

Imanaga’s posting deadline and accompanying logistics (I assume he's currentlt stateside but would like to get home by New Year's?) will keep his market moving at the very least.

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Hopefully this dislodges things.  Then again there's no real reason the bats shouldn't have been moving by now so who knows.  Baseball executives will do absolutely anything possible to put off making moves.  That's why for instance making the trade deadline later is easily the dumbest thing I regularly see otherwise smart people suggest.

So we should start seeing movement.  But between the holidays and the next Diamond hearing and the arb deadline Baseball has three ready-made excuses lined up for the next three weeks.

Imanaga’s posting deadline and accompanying logistics (I assume he's currentlt stateside but would like to get home by New Year's?) will keep his market moving at the very least.

Sadly, as much as much as we believed Ohani was the holdup, I think the holdup here is Boras. Boras basically has a monopoly on every major bat on the market this year. Chapman, Bellinger, Hoskins are all still Boras clients. Lee was a Boras client, too. There's your secondary guys, but teams probably aren't going ga-ga for JD Martinez or Brandon Belt so much right now. With teams likely doing the same as the Cubs with these players (which is waiting the market out) and Boras waiting the market out, it could be a really slow market unless a team blinks (like the Giants with Lee, who got much more than I would have guessed) or a player gets impatient.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

27 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Sadly, as much as much as we believed Ohani was the holdup, I think the holdup here is Boras. Boras basically has a monopoly on every major bat on the market this year. Chapman, Bellinger, Hoskins are all still Boras clients. Lee was a Boras client, too. There's your secondary guys, but teams probably aren't going ga-ga for JD Martinez or Brandon Belt so much right now. With teams likely doing the same as the Cubs with these players (which is waiting the market out) and Boras waiting the market out, it could be a really slow market unless a team blinks (like the Giants with Lee, who got much more than I would have guessed) or a player gets impatient.

 

It's Boras all the way down!

 

 

 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

It's Boras all the way down!