If both Stroman and Hendricks stay in 2024, how does that change your offseason?

[Brock Beauchamp]

As we approached the offseason, I assumed the Cubs would be looking for a good starting pitcher. But as the landscape changed in the final 6-ish weeks, I started second-guessing that, particularly Stroman's opt-out.

So if both Stroman and Hendricks are here in 2024, what is your primary driving goal this winter?

[We Got The Whole 9]

The primary goal should no doubt be to get Ohtani

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The needs to me look like this, not in a particular order:

• Middle of the order bat, which can come from CF, 1B, DH, 3B
• Playoff SP, by which I mean a SP you're good making more than one start in a playoff series(I find this a better mental model than debating #1 v. #2 v. #3 SP)
• A second above average bat (~115 wRC+) from what's left of CF, 1B, DH, 3B
• A leverage reliever

There's permutations where you can add other minor things to this(a RHH CF, another RP, a C), but those are the highlights.

If you bring back both Stroman and Hendricks, unless payroll is going to be significantly higher than expected(like flirting with 40 mil above the tax line), it's tough for me to say Playoff SP is any higher than 3rd in priority.  That said, Stroman and his contract (at least most of it) are likely easy enough to move that you don't have to stop pursuing a playoff SP just because you have both of them banked.  But the paths to getting one without the acute need do get more narrow.

 

 

[CubinNY]

The Dodgers and the Mets are going to make a hard play for Ohtani. I don't see the Ricketts willing to play in that game. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

40 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The Dodgers and the Mets are going to make a hard play for Ohtani. I don't see the Ricketts willing to play in that game. 

I'm curious about the Mets. They hired Stearns, who isn't going to throw bad money at a player if the Mets aren't ready (and he's said the Mets are really looking at 2025). That might exclude Ohtani... or it might not, as Ohtani isn't going to pitch in 2024 but should pitch again in 2025.

[CubinNY]

44 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Copy and paste this to every FA of interest and let Cubs tuck their tails and hide a few more years to prepare. Cubs are going to need a Rebuild 3.0 to fight back against these bullies, these oppressors 

I think they will make a strong bid for Yammomato and probably also for Soto if he is put on the block by San Diego even though he doesn't really fit well on the team. Maybe also Alonso, although I have my doubts the Mets will want to trade him. 

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

As always it fascinates me that Cubs fans magically find money and will for non-Ohtani moves 

I just don't think the Ricketts will want to commit one quarter of the way to the luxury tax for the next eight years for one player. 

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

….But you think they’re willing to pay Yamamoto, trade for, move, and extend Soto, and possibly Alonso.

I genuinely don’t care what anyone thinks the Ricketts will do - it’s known by now what the popular answer is. By far I’m most curious as to why there’s so much money and resources for non-Ohtani moves for unavailable players but the second that guy comes up it disappears 

It's math. Yamamoto, Soto, and Alonso are three people filling three positions. Ohtani is one player and a DH for next year and who knows if he will ever start again. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is it really hard to think of reasons that aren't attributing every offseason that doesn't include Ohtani to magical thinking?  You don't have to agree with them, but off the top of my head:

• People are intentionally excluding Ohtani because they don't think it's feasible he will choose to come to Chicago
• Ohtani may have a similar salary to Yamamoto + Alonso but the latter helps more in 2024 than Ohtani because he's not going to pitch
• Ohtani's overall future as a pitcher is in doubt, when faced with the choice of Yamamoto the pitcher + Alonso/Soto/Bellinger the hitter v. Ohtani the pitcher + Ohtani the hitter, there's a rational argument to choose the former.  Especially when you layer in future expectations of Ohtani at age 30+ v. 29 for Alonso/Bellinger and 25 for Yamamoto/Soto
• Ohtani may be two players in 1 but you also have to go to a 6 man rotation if he does continue to pitch so the efficiency gained is diluted a bit.  Also any injuries/issues he has take away production at two spots instead of one.
• There may be budget to add an Ohtani-sized amount of AAV but their may not be a willingness to commit to that AAV in a super long term deal(especially given post-prime ages), while one long term deal + a rental avoids that commitment before you're ready for it
  
  
  There are also many many reasons to sign Shohei Ohtani, the best player in baseball.  I am not trying to say Do Not Sign Shohei. But come on man, have a little imagination before so quickly assuming that there's a conspiratorial blindspot in everyone else's thinking.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

19 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

- Ohtani is not going to have a similar salary to two superstar players. It’s going to be double digits less

Well yes I can understand your consternation a lot more if you strongly believe this.  Do you think Ohtani is going to struggle to scrape 40M AAV?  Because 20-25M each for the individuals that have been thrown around instead of him is pretty well assured, if not by the market(Bellinger, Yamamoto) then by arbitration or guarantees(Glasnow, Alonso).

[Bertz]

Honestly combined with how Wicks and Assad balled out to end the year I think Stroman opting in gives Jed tons of options.  I see two major implications that would maybe not have seemed reasonable as recently as August:

- The team should be extremely picky about what SP to add, to the point of potentially foregoing adding a starting pitcher at all.  Like TT said, the need is not just any old SP, but a playoff caliber starting pitcher.  We want that guy to pair with Steele to give us something resembling Wheeler/Nola.  But like if that guy is not available, or he costs an absurd amount, just throw those resources at the offense or the bullpen.  Jed has a lot of money and prospects to spend this winter, but he's probably got to scrimp somewhere.  I'd say the SPs I'm into pursuing are Yamamoto, Glasnow, Skubal, the Mariners guys...and that might be it?  (setting aside Ohtani, who's not a SP in the short term)

- If the team does make a SP add, they can comfortably deal a SP or two.  The team already has 7 guys I feel good about starting games next year (the four vets plus Assad/Brown/Wicks), with Horton probably being someone we're champing at the bit to see by June.  There's also Smyly, Wesneski, and Kilian; three guys we don't want to see starting but who are probably comfortably better than replacement level (...maybe not "comfortably" in Kilian's case).  As much as "you can never have too much pitching" that's a lot of pitching.  It's probably a waste to not cash any of those chips in

Also I think dealing Stroman would be a really easy to trade if need be.  Phillies, Twins, Giants, Dodgers all seem like very reasonable destination.  Plus some historically tight fisted teams like the Orioles, Marlins, and Dbacks might be down since it's just a one year deal.  Red Sox make sense on paper too, though Stroman in Boston seems like a terrible idea.  

[thawv]

If they are both on the team at their current salaries, the Cubs will be 31 million under the CBT.  So unless they blow by the threshold, the FA signing will be pretty weak.   Pick up Gomes option, and they have 25 million to spend.  If they don't pick up any options, and Stroman opts out, the Cubs will be a little under 71 million below the CBT.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

33 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Is it or is that just most the convenience? Bellinger and Yanamoto are well in position to ask for more. $25 million probably doesn’t even get you into the Yamamoto conversation with the posting fee. Same for a Soto extension. Why would a 25 YO on a HoF track sign for so little? Isn’t the whole case for those two (Yamamoto and Soto) that they’re very young superstars? How could they possibly be so cheap?

Even if I’m supposed to poop my pants at the prospect of Ohtani getting $40 million, boogity boogity, even the low end estimates suggest the budgets that can’t hold him won’t be able to hold two non-Ohtani stars 

 

 

Maybe Bellinger and Yamamoto will get well more!  Early indications are less so.  Bellinger was non-tendered 12 months ago after multiple years of poor performance and has a QO attached, while Yamamoto for his stuff and youth is still an NPB product with uncertainty about how his game will transfer(plus the posting fee is outside the LT and isn't a part of these AAV considerations).  Soto will make 30+ in arbitration so he's a slightly different story, but Alonso(even extended) is unlikely to exceed that 25 mark.  Glasnow's set at 25 contractually.  

As for Ohtani, the thinking is he's going to get 50 million, maybe a bit less with the uncertainty around his pitching.  That's the genesis of this point, if you think paying some combination of the above guys is going to be 10 million+ more in AAV than paying Ohtani, then Ohtani becomes even more attractive.  But that seems far from certain.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

32 minutes ago, Bertz said:

- The team should be extremely picky about what SP to add, to the point of potentially foregoing adding a starting pitcher at all.  Like TT said, the need is not just any old SP, but a playoff caliber starting pitcher.  We want that guy to pair with Steele to give us something resembling Wheeler/Nola.  But like if that guy is not available, or he costs an absurd amount, just throw those resources at the offense or the bullpen.  Jed has a lot of money and prospects to spend this winter, but he's probably got to scrimp somewhere.  I'd say the SPs I'm into pursuing are Yamamoto, Glasnow, Skubal, the Mariners guys...and that might be it?  (setting aside Ohtani, who's not a SP in the short term)

Maybe Luzardo with the signals coming from the Marlins?

 

Quote

Also I think dealing Stroman would be a really easy to trade if need be.  Phillies, Twins, Giants, Dodgers all seem like very reasonable destination.  Plus some historically tight fisted teams like the Orioles, Marlins, and Dbacks might be down since it's just a one year deal.  Red Sox make sense on paper too, though Stroman in Boston seems like a terrible idea.  

I suspect this pairs with your first point in that they'd mostly operate that search for a playoff SP outside of budget limitations knowing they can spin off Stroman, but they do have to be mindful of timing since all 30 teams can't take on his deal even with only 1 year.  Thankfully the Japanese imports typically sign in the first half of the offseason and I'm guessing if Glasnow goes somewhere it isn't going to be in February, so it doesn't seem impractical to play it this way(compared to e.g. trying to lock up Bellinger before the winter meetings).

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Is it or is that just most the convenience? Bellinger and Yanamoto are well in position to ask for more. $25 million probably doesn’t even get you into the Yamamoto conversation with the posting fee. Same for a Soto extension. Why would a 25 YO on a HoF track sign for so little? Isn’t the whole case for those two (Yamamoto and Soto) that they’re very young superstars? How could they possibly be so cheap?

Even if I’m supposed to poop my pants at the prospect of Ohtani getting $40 million, boogity boogity, even the low end estimates suggest the budgets that can’t hold him won’t be able to hold two non-Ohtani stars 

 

 

tedious.