Ohtani to Dodgers for an ungodly amount of money

[Stratos]

I can't see how we beat the Dodgers.  They have the players/team, the revenue, the west coast location and asian locals, plus he doesn't have to move.  Only thing Cubs can offer better is taxes.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I can't see how we beat the Dodgers.  They have the players/team, the revenue, the west coast location and asian locals, plus he doesn't have to move.  Only thing Cubs can offer better is taxes.

You don’t know what he thinks. Might like Wrigley. Might not like LA. If he is on the Cubs they are also a good team. Favorite in the central. More exposure in the Midwest. His games are played at a time most of the country can watch. I mean, sure what you suggest could be true. But we don’t know his preference. And then there is money and contract structure. I feel the Dodgers are the favorites, but we can’t be sure. The only thing that makes me think he really might not be sure is if he was sure why would he have these GM’s fly to LA to try to recruit him. Why wouldn’t he just tell them  it to bother he is choosing LA? 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You don’t know what he thinks. Might like Wrigley. Might not like LA. If he is on the Cubs they are also a good team. Favorite in the central. More exposure in the Midwest. His games are played at a time most of the country can watch. I mean, sure what you suggest could be true. But we don’t know his preference. And then there is money and contract structure. I feel the Dodgers are the favorites, but we can’t be sure. The only thing that makes me think he really might not be sure is if he was sure why would he have these GM’s fly to LA to try to recruit him. Why wouldn’t he just tell them  it to bother he is choosing LA? 

Well I don't think LA is a lock for him but it just seems such an overwhelming favorite in what they can offer.  The midwest is not a good market compared to the coasts.  Good point about the timezone in LA.

You're right we have no idea what factors are most important to him.  Financially it will likely go well beyond the contract dollars to include the market as an opportunity to build revenue streams for him outside the MLB and keep building his own brand.  But who knows.

I have no doubt Ricketts is licking his lips at the revenue opportunity here.  This is a corporate business decision above everything, and they'll run the numbers and revenue projections and decide that way IMO, it's definitely not just about his WAR.  Just imagine the presentation package they'd lay out for him.  The Cubs have turned into Disney LOL, and I haven't been the biggest fan of the Ricketts/Crane approach, it's just way too corporate and feels dead inside.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Stratos

[thawv]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I commented already on accepting LA and not being disappointed with the Cubs effort. I also said I wouldn’t be mad at the FO if they didn’t get him.
However, if he does want to be the face of Canadian baseball, I have to think someone in Toronto pitched that to him. Someone in Toronto explained how great it would be to play in Toronto. I highly doubt that was a childhood dream of his. So, since they pitched that to him if he choses them that would mean their FO did a better sales job than the Cubs FO. That would mean he came in with an open mind towards any team that offered him a contract and the Blue Jays outsold the Cubs, for whatever reason. He was there for the taking and the Cubs FO didn’t do a good enough job of selling all that comes with being a Cub. I feel it is perfectly acceptable being disappointed in the FO for not making it happen.

This is a great post!  Question.  What if the Cubs pitch was fantastic, and the money wasn't enough?  Let's say he wants Chicago, but they didn't offer enough money.

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, thawv said:

This is a great post!  Question.  What if the Cubs pitch was fantastic, and the money wasn't enough?  Let's say he wants Chicago, but they didn't offer enough money.

Pure guess but I think every team who makes this "final pitch" list, the teams flying out to LA, will be in the general ballpark when it comes to money. 

Regardless of where he signs, I bet we hear how he "left money" on the table or signed the not largest contract. That seems to be pretty popular reporting. Lots of it is just how you define the contract and the "money" (AAV, actual cash, length, etc). 

Edited December 2, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[thawv]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

I can't see how we beat the Dodgers.  They have the players/team, the revenue, the west coast location and asian locals, plus he doesn't have to move.  Only thing Cubs can offer better is taxes.

Cubs can sell the same thing with winning their division for several years to come.  Maybe living in LA is something he wants to get away from.  All major cities have large Asian communities.  We have no idea what he wants

 

The assumption that he want's to stay in LA, is no different than making the assumption that he wants to leave LA.  This isn't 2017.  He just spent 6 years there, and we have no ideal if he likes it or not.

 

Just playing devil's advocate.  He may actually LOVE LA.  I don't know.  And neither do any fans. 

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Pure guess but I think every team who makes this "final pitch" list, the teams flying out to LA, will be in the general ballpark when it comes to money. 

Most certainly!  But will any of these teams go over "blow him away" money?  THAT kind of money, I can only see the Dodgers doing.

 

It's clear that the Cubs are "in it" for sure.  That's not going to be that much of an issue in my opinion. 

 

I think that the best thing that can happen for the Cubs is that he's ready to move on from LA.  Hopefully he feels like his time there has run it's course and he wants to enter a new, and different market.  What better market than Chicago, the Cubs, and the whole new Wrigley experience?   Maybe he'd like to be seen on TV during live games, instead of just highlights.  People outside the west coast don't really watch games out there.  

 

The truth of the matter is, we have no idea what he's thinking.  What he likes and doesn't like.  If I had to guess, he's made up him mind already, and this weekend is just a dog and pony show. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, thawv said:

Most certainly!  But will any of these teams go over "blow him away" money?  THAT kind of money, I can only see the Dodgers doing.

 

It's clear that the Cubs are "in it" for sure.  That's not going to be that much of an issue in my opinion. 

 

I think that the best thing that can happen for the Cubs is that he's ready to move on from LA.  Hopefully he feels like his time there has run it's course and he wants to enter a new, and different market.  What better market than Chicago, the Cubs, and the whole new Wrigley experience?   Maybe he'd like to be seen on TV during live games, instead of just highlights.  People outside the west coast don't really watch games out there.  

 

The truth of the matter is, we have no idea what he's thinking.  What he likes and doesn't like.  If I had to guess, he's made up him mind already, and this weekend is just a dog and pony show. 

I think every one of the final 4 teams will be prepared to offer him blow him away money, though. That's what I'm saying. I don't think there's going to be some contract that's like $80m more than another. A few million here or there just being different in terms of structuring? Maybe. But I have a feeling these teams are in "blank check" territory for the most part. There comes a point where you're in for a penny in for a pound here because the numbers are so large. Truly, the difference between $550 and $600m over 10 years is just a few million per season, for example. $5m a season might mean something for a guy like Jordan Montogmery where you say "$25m per season, that's the max we can do", but for Shohei? I think the math, just maths different.

Maybe I'm way off here, but I have a feeling you don't make it this far, with this free agent if you're not going as high as everyone else essentially.

Edited December 2, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[thawv]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think every one of the final 4 teams will be prepared to offer him blow him away money, though. That's what I'm saying. I don't think there's going to be some contract that's like $80m more than another. A few million here or there just being different in terms of structuring? Maybe. But I have a feeling these teams are in "blank check" territory for the most part. There comes a point where you're in for a penny in for a pound here because the numbers are so large. Truly, the difference between $550 and $600m over 10 years is just a few million per season, for example. $5m a season might mean something for a guy like Jordan Montogmery where you say "$25m per season, that's the max we can do", but for Shohei? I think the math, just maths different.

Maybe I'm way off here, but I have a feeling you don't make it this far, with this free agent if you're not going as high as everyone else essentially.

That's the kind of "blow away" money I'm talking about.  If every team is prepared to go in the 500 million ish range, that's not blow away money.  But if one team goes to 580, now that's blow away money.  I'm just thinking that the Dodgers are in the best position to do that. 

 

I really think that our best chance is that he wants to get out of LA, and start a new chapter in his life.  A new revenue stream.  A new fan base.  A new field, and field experience.  A more national following due to being in central time, and out of the WC time zone.  

 

But again, we don't know anything.

Edited December 2, 2023 by thawv

[Rcal10]

47 minutes ago, thawv said:

This is a great post!  Question.  What if the Cubs pitch was fantastic, and the money wasn't enough?  Let's say he wants Chicago, but they didn't offer enough money.

I have to think money/contract structure all have to be pretty similar. I also agree with 1908 that no matter who he signs with you will hear he left money in the table. Contracts at this point can be so different as far as structure with the end money similar. But he might take the 10 year deal with higher annual and more opt outs over the 12 year deal with a lot of back money and maybe deferred money and little or no opt outs, but  guarantees him a higher end result. And then it will be pointed out by not taking 12 years he left guaranteed money on the table. Which team he chooses, I doubt he will ever say it is because they gave him more money. To me it is all going to come down to the sales pitch. I think each team will have a good enough contract in place for him to sign. 

[thawv]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I have to think money/contract structure all have to be pretty similar. I also agree with 1908 that no matter who he signs with you will hear he left money in the table. Contracts at this point can be so different as far as structure with the end money similar. But he might take the 10 year deal with higher annual and more opt outs over the 12 year deal with a lot of back money and maybe deferred money and little or no opt outs, but  guarantees him a higher end result. And then it will be pointed out by not taking 12 years he left guaranteed money on the table. Which team he chooses, I doubt he will ever say it is because they gave him more money. To me it is all going to come down to the sales pitch. I think each team will have a good enough contract in place for him to sign. 

This is likely all true.  The Cubs best hope is that he's done with the city of Los Angeles.  If he likes it there, no team has a legit chance.  The money will be there.  The city, the field, the experience, the fans, and everything non contract is going to have to be sold hard to land him.

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, thawv said:

This is likely all true.  The Cubs best hope is that he's done with the city of Los Angeles.  If he likes it there, no team has a legit chance.  The money will be there.  The city, the field, the experience, the fans, and everything non contract is going to have to be sold hard to land him.

Which is why my original point was I wouldn’t be so disappointed in the FO if he stayed in LA. IMO that would mean that was his preference all along and he had to be blown away to leave. But I would be disappointed if he left and it wasn’t here because that means a different FO did a better job of selling the experience with that team. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Which is why my original point was I wouldn’t be so disappointed in the FO if he stayed in LA. IMO that would mean that was his preference all along and he had to be blown away to leave. But I would be disappointed if he left and it wasn’t here because that means a different FO did a better job of selling the experience with that team. 

Maybe. But it could also be personal preference. Sometimes you can sell your vision as well as you can, but it just isn't their vision. It may not be a lack of selling your team, but just that in the end, Ohtani preferred something else. Like, for whatever reason, he may just like Toronto or San Francisco more. It might have little to do with your pitch.

Edited December 2, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[thawv]

34 minutes ago, username said:

Then his agent will simply call Jed and say "Hey, he wants to be a Cub... if you can get your offer up to ___, we have a deal."  I doubt it's a "submit your best and final offer" type thing.  

I agree.  I also think he's made up his mind already.  Or at the very least, giving the other teams one last chance to change his mind.

Edited December 2, 2023 by thawv

[Bertz]

If we have to do another week and a half of this horsefeathers I swear

 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If we have to do another week and a half of this horsefeathers I swear

 

I can't imagine it'll take that long. Feels like there will be such a bottleneck on a few teams here that it'll have to get done in the next 2-4 days.

[thawv]

If it's true, that he's meeting with teams today in LA, it should be interesting again.  This if from an article of how it went down in 2017

 

First, according to an executive involved in the process, teams had to drop their car service off at one entrance of Creative Artists Agency headquarters in Los Angeles. Later, another car would pick them up at a different entrance.

In between, a staffer from the famed entertainment agency would escort the baseball executives into the building, up an elevator and sequester them in a private waiting room. Once one team finished its presentation, their officials were whisked out and the next team was brought to a different waiting room.

Each of the seven team contingents were eventually led into an inner sanctum where Ohtani awaited them, dressed in a sports coat with agents flanking him on either side. Teams had two hours to present. Then they were brought down the elevator and ushered out of the building as discreetly as one of CAA’s celebrity clients seeking to avoid the paparazzi.

 

“I got a kick out of that, because all the teams stayed at the same hotel, at this Intercontinental,” said an executive involved in the process. “It’s like this air of secrecy, then I roll into the hotel, and see (two other executives).

“They were trying to control the whole thing. There was this effort made to make it this clandestine — nobody knows who’s here. And then we all had dinner at the same restaurant.”

[thawv]

23 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I can't imagine it'll take that long. Feels like there will be such a bottleneck on a few teams here that it'll have to get done in the next 2-4 days.

He's holding up the market on the better FA's.  If each team has 2 hours again to present their case, they should announce it before the meetings.

Edited December 2, 2023 by thawv

[SOFNR]

Can they send Theo?  I had a lot more confidence in his pitching abilities.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, thawv said:

He's holding up the market on the better FA's.  If each team has 2 hours again to present their case, they should announce it before the meetings.

I doubt he cares that he is holding up the market. Not his problem. I can’t see him taking that long, but I also don’t think he owes it to anyone to choose on someone else’s timeframe. Maybe he overplays his hand by waiting and teams move on. But maybe waiting also gets him more. Everyone is different. 

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I doubt he cares that he is holding up the market. Not his problem. I can’t see him taking that long, but I also don’t think he owes it to anyone to choose on someone else’s timeframe. Maybe he overplays his hand by waiting and teams move on. But maybe waiting also gets him more. Everyone is different. 

I mean it would be pretty ironic to leave the Angels for being uncompetitive and then deliberately kneecapping your next team's first offseason 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I doubt he cares that he is holding up the market. Not his problem. I can’t see him taking that long, but I also don’t think he owes it to anyone to choose on someone else’s timeframe. Maybe he overplays his hand by waiting and teams move on. But maybe waiting also gets him more. Everyone is different. 

Eh, I bet he does though to a degree. The Dodgers, the Cubs and the Blue Jays all have holes to fix. The Dodgers need multiple SPs. The Cubs need a SP and probably another bat. The Blue Jays need a 3b and maybe an OFer. If Ohtani's goal is a winning team, it probably does matter to him if these things are being held up. All three of these teams likely approach the 2nd steps differently based on Ohtani's signing on or not and may not be able to take the second steps until they know his plans.

 

It comes back to the things he wants out of this. Those things we don't really know. But if he wants to win, making a snappier choice will likely aid in that teams ability to finish their offseason.

Edited December 2, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[17 Seconds]

i predict the news breaks tonight around 7 est

Edited December 2, 2023 by 17 Seconds

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

i predict the news breaks tonight around 7 est

I've got tickets to a concert at 8pm est. I predict it breaks between 8-10pm est just to piss me off.

[thawv]

16 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I doubt he cares that he is holding up the market. Not his problem. I can’t see him taking that long, but I also don’t think he owes it to anyone to choose on someone else’s timeframe. Maybe he overplays his hand by waiting and teams move on. But maybe waiting also gets him more. Everyone is different. 

I don't think he cares either.  And he owes nobody anything.  But, I think that if he's made up his mind, the league would, and should tell him to announce it.  Either way, Nez is not that guy.  He'll tell the winning team and the media immediately, like he did in 2017.  

Edited December 2, 2023 by thawv