NOT the “Javier Assad first start” game thread…

[Bertz]

My theory on Madrigal is that with his speed he gets to a well above average number of balls, but his arm makes it so he converts a below average number into outs (and a lot of routine plays are closer than they should be). Net net he's a positive defender but those unmade plays stick in people's craw and he fails the eye test.

[CubinNY]

My theory on Madrigal is that with his speed he gets to a well above average number of balls, but his arm makes it so he converts a below average number into outs (and a lot of routine plays are closer than they should be). Net net he's a positive defender but those unmade plays stick in people's craw and he fails the eye test.

100% correct. His throws make me want to vomit. I don't think I've ever seen a weaker arm.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

so what you're saying is, even with a .367 babip he's still pretty average

 

3+ wins from 2B without spending time higher on the defensive spectrum is pretty good, but the BABIP brings up the other point about Madrigal I've made before. He's supposed to be a hit tool outlier, it's his defining valuable trait that stands apart and why people put a 70 grade on it. Madrigal hitting .320 for an extended stretch with no HR and few Ks(and the BABIP that creates) shouldn't be thought of as an extreme outlier. It shouldn't be the *expectation*, but even if you drop him to something like .300/.360/.350 over a larger sample, you're still talking about an above average player on a team that could use more of them. As of today his MLB career even with multiple ups and downs is 130 games, 504 PA, .296/.343/.364 for a 98 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR.

[sneakypower]

so what you're saying is, even with a .367 babip he's still pretty average

 

3+ wins from 2B without spending time higher on the defensive spectrum is pretty good, but the BABIP brings up the other point about Madrigal I've made before. He's supposed to be a hit tool outlier, it's his defining valuable trait that stands apart and why people put a 70 grade on it. Madrigal hitting .320 for an extended stretch with no HR and few Ks(and the BABIP that creates) shouldn't be thought of as an extreme outlier. It shouldn't be the *expectation*, but even if you drop him to something like .300/.360/.350 over a larger sample, you're still talking about an above average player on a team that could use more of them. As of today his MLB career even with multiple ups and downs is 130 games, 504 PA, .296/.343/.364 for a 98 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR.

he gets lazy 70 grades on his hit tool simply for never striking out, his ZiPS babip is still .307

 

doing unexpectedly well "for an extended stretch" and unexpectedly poorly for an extended stretch adds up to an overall liability, why are we talking ourselves so hard into Aaron Miles 2.0

[Transmogrified Tiger]

so what you're saying is, even with a .367 babip he's still pretty average

 

3+ wins from 2B without spending time higher on the defensive spectrum is pretty good, but the BABIP brings up the other point about Madrigal I've made before. He's supposed to be a hit tool outlier, it's his defining valuable trait that stands apart and why people put a 70 grade on it. Madrigal hitting .320 for an extended stretch with no HR and few Ks(and the BABIP that creates) shouldn't be thought of as an extreme outlier. It shouldn't be the *expectation*, but even if you drop him to something like .300/.360/.350 over a larger sample, you're still talking about an above average player on a team that could use more of them. As of today his MLB career even with multiple ups and downs is 130 games, 504 PA, .296/.343/.364 for a 98 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR.

he gets lazy 70 grades on his hit tool simply for never striking out, his ZiPS babip is still .307

 

doing unexpectedly well "for an extended stretch" and unexpectedly poorly for an extended stretch adds up to an overall liability, why are we talking ourselves so hard into Aaron Miles 2.0

 

Not swinging and missing and still hitting .300 at every level is really hard to do and representative of a skill and not some pitcher-induced tradeoff like we've seen from the likes of Theriot or Almora. Since he debuted the only other player with Madrigal's playing time, a sub-10% K rate and a .290 average is Arraez(5 fWAR in 1000 PA).

 

If anything I think people made up their minds that since Madrigal isn't going to hit for pop that he's obviously gonna be bad or hate him on aesthetic grounds for not having huge ceiling or having a crummy first month as a Cub. He's a perfectly useful player on the whole and when he's hot/makes improvements he's quite good. No one is trying to etch his name into the lineup 150 times or insist he's the leadoff hitter of the future, I'm enjoying his run of good form and think he can be useful on a good team(especially at pre-FA salaries).

[sneakypower]

 

expected woba was .289 last year, it's .288 this year, that's what should be anticipated from him and that's just a bench player for any team that tries to win games; you're projecting very fluky performance to repeat, the age-old Cubs 2B trap we've seen what feels like a thousand times

[mul21]

 

3+ wins from 2B without spending time higher on the defensive spectrum is pretty good, but the BABIP brings up the other point about Madrigal I've made before. He's supposed to be a hit tool outlier, it's his defining valuable trait that stands apart and why people put a 70 grade on it. Madrigal hitting .320 for an extended stretch with no HR and few Ks(and the BABIP that creates) shouldn't be thought of as an extreme outlier. It shouldn't be the *expectation*, but even if you drop him to something like .300/.360/.350 over a larger sample, you're still talking about an above average player on a team that could use more of them. As of today his MLB career even with multiple ups and downs is 130 games, 504 PA, .296/.343/.364 for a 98 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR.

he gets lazy 70 grades on his hit tool simply for never striking out, his ZiPS babip is still .307

 

doing unexpectedly well "for an extended stretch" and unexpectedly poorly for an extended stretch adds up to an overall liability, why are we talking ourselves so hard into Aaron Miles 2.0

 

Not swinging and missing and still hitting .300 at every level is really hard to do and representative of a skill and not some pitcher-induced tradeoff like we've seen from the likes of Theriot or Almora. Since he debuted the only other player with Madrigal's playing time, a sub-10% K rate and a .290 average is Arraez(5 fWAR in 1000 PA).

 

If anything I think people made up their minds that since Madrigal isn't going to hit for pop that he's obviously gonna be bad or hate him on aesthetic grounds for not having huge ceiling or having a crummy first month as a Cub. He's a perfectly useful player on the whole and when he's hot/makes improvements he's quite good. No one is trying to etch his name into the lineup 150 times or insist he's the leadoff hitter of the future, I'm enjoying his run of good form and think he can be useful on a good team(especially at pre-FA salaries).

 

In addition to all of this, I feel like that particular skillset is probably more valuable late in games when you're seeing more hard throwing pitchers with swing and miss stuff. I don't believe in clutch, but high contact rates against that type of pitcher is certainly going to give you a higher probability of success than a lot of other hitter profiles.

[Bertz]

 

expected woba was .289 last year, it's .288 this year, that's what should be anticipated from him and that's just a bench player for any team that tries to win games; you're projecting very fluky performance to repeat, the age-old Cubs 2B trap we've seen what feels like a thousand times

 

xwOBA doesn't take into account horizontal launch angle, or speed. A faster spray hitter like Madrigal (or Hoerner) will exceed that number on a systemic basis. It's not gonna make a massive difference, but a regular 15-20 points of "over performing" is probably safe to routinely expect. It's the inverse of the Schwarber conundrum.