The Just Baseball Show on Youtube

[tspain]

I was watching The Just Baseball Show on Youtube while ago. They are making trade proposals for teams. The very first one involved our Cubs and the Mets. Here is the deal they proposed. Contreras and Robertson to the Mets for #5 prospect Mark Vientos, #10 prospect 18 year old pitcher Joel Diaz, #21 prospect Mike Vasil, and Dom Smith who is 26 years old. They said the Mets want to win this year and need to upgrade the catcher spot only as a rental. And need bullpen help. What do you make of their proposal?

[UK]

I was watching The Just Baseball Show on Youtube while ago. They are making trade proposals for teams. The very first one involved our Cubs and the Mets. Here is the deal they proposed. Contreras and Robertson to the Mets for #5 prospect Mark Vientos, #10 prospect 18 year old pitcher Joel Diaz, #21 prospect Mike Vasil, and Dom Smith who is 26 years old. They said the Mets want to win this year and need to upgrade the catcher spot only as a rental. And need bullpen help. What do you make of their proposal?

 

The Cubs would get fleeced in that scenario.

[Backtobanks]

I was watching The Just Baseball Show on Youtube while ago. They are making trade proposals for teams. The very first one involved our Cubs and the Mets. Here is the deal they proposed. Contreras and Robertson to the Mets for #5 prospect Mark Vientos, #10 prospect 18 year old pitcher Joel Diaz, #21 prospect Mike Vasil, and Dom Smith who is 26 years old. They said the Mets want to win this year and need to upgrade the catcher spot only as a rental. And need bullpen help. What do you make of their proposal?

 

The Cubs would get fleeced in that scenario.

 

So you're saying Hoyer will jump on that deal?

[CubinNY]

Any trade that involves the Mets that doesn't include Álvarez is a non-starter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Any trade that involves the Mets that doesn't include Álvarez is a non-starter.

 

I think in general folks in the media overcorrect in having too low a cost for rentals, but the Cubs aren't getting a Top 10 overall prospect hitting well in AA for Contreras, even with a quality player like Robertson thrown in. I also don't think the Cubs are really getting fleeced in that proposal, at least in terms of the general value. Vientos is the type of player(50-100 overall, high potential but clear flaws) who does make for a more reasonable match for a half season of Contreras plus a flyer on Smith's remaining potential, and Robertson bringing a Top 10ish and Top 20 prospect doesn't feel out of place even if I might prefer different specifics.

[CubinNY]

Any trade that involves the Mets that doesn't include Álvarez is a non-starter.

 

I think in general folks in the media overcorrect in having too low a cost for rentals, but the Cubs aren't getting a Top 10 overall prospect hitting well in AA for Contreras, even with a quality player like Robertson thrown in. I also don't think the Cubs are really getting fleeced in that proposal, at least in terms of the general value. Vientos is the type of player(50-100 overall, high potential but clear flaws) who does make for a more reasonable match for a half season of Contreras plus a flyer on Smith's remaining potential, and Robertson bringing a Top 10ish and Top 20 prospect doesn't feel out of place even if I might prefer different specifics.

They got PCA for Baez last year. If that's the case I hope they don't trade Willson.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Any trade that involves the Mets that doesn't include Álvarez is a non-starter.

 

I think in general folks in the media overcorrect in having too low a cost for rentals, but the Cubs aren't getting a Top 10 overall prospect hitting well in AA for Contreras, even with a quality player like Robertson thrown in. I also don't think the Cubs are really getting fleeced in that proposal, at least in terms of the general value. Vientos is the type of player(50-100 overall, high potential but clear flaws) who does make for a more reasonable match for a half season of Contreras plus a flyer on Smith's remaining potential, and Robertson bringing a Top 10ish and Top 20 prospect doesn't feel out of place even if I might prefer different specifics.

They got PCA for Baez last year. If that's the case I hope they don't trade Willson.

 

PCA had played 6 professional games in A ball and then suffered a season ending injury, his value in July was far more equivalent to Vientos than Alvarez.

 

But yes, I'm increasingly convinced the way forward here is extending Willson(as if 'keep the good player' needed a sales job) and probably trading Happ.

[CubinNY]

 

I think in general folks in the media overcorrect in having too low a cost for rentals, but the Cubs aren't getting a Top 10 overall prospect hitting well in AA for Contreras, even with a quality player like Robertson thrown in. I also don't think the Cubs are really getting fleeced in that proposal, at least in terms of the general value. Vientos is the type of player(50-100 overall, high potential but clear flaws) who does make for a more reasonable match for a half season of Contreras plus a flyer on Smith's remaining potential, and Robertson bringing a Top 10ish and Top 20 prospect doesn't feel out of place even if I might prefer different specifics.

They got PCA for Baez last year. If that's the case I hope they don't trade Willson.

 

PCA had played 6 professional games in A ball and then suffered a season ending injury, his value in July was far more equivalent to Vientos than Alvarez.

 

But yes, I'm increasingly convinced the way forward here is extending Willson(as if 'keep the good player' needed a sales job) and probably trading Happ.

I understand the concept of trading a player that they are unlikely to sign to an extension. I don't understand why they would want to trade Wilson and not get an adequate return. This is especially the case related to the value he has to the team, his positional value relative to his peers, and the Cubs positional need. I really cannot understand why they aren't going out of their way to extend him.

 

I don't think the answer is PTR. But I don't know the baseball reasons.

[Tryptamine]

Baty and Alvarez just aren't realistic and I'm not sure that Mauricio is entirely realistic either. Personally I am not that high on Vientos. The power is there, but swing and miss is still a tremendous issue and as someone who values hit tool above all other tools, he's not my cup of tea. If I'm forced to make a deal with the Mets, which is less than ideal, then Alex Ramirez and Joel Diaz pretty much are a must for me and I'd probably ask for Allen too, but that's a crazy risky package given the injury to Allen and the age of the other two.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They got PCA for Baez last year. If that's the case I hope they don't trade Willson.

 

PCA had played 6 professional games in A ball and then suffered a season ending injury, his value in July was far more equivalent to Vientos than Alvarez.

 

But yes, I'm increasingly convinced the way forward here is extending Willson(as if 'keep the good player' needed a sales job) and probably trading Happ.

I understand the concept of trading a player that they are unlikely to sign to an extension. I don't understand why they would want to trade Wilson and not get an adequate return. This is especially the case related to the value he has to the team, his positional value relative to his peers, and the Cubs positional need. I really cannot understand why they aren't going out of their way to extend him.

 

I don't think the answer is PTR. But I don't know the baseball reasons.

 

Maybe they think he's going to age very poorly and/or think his 2 months to start this year are not the new norm. Maybe Willson said "you traded away my friends so I'm not gonna sign here", or maybe he wants like 8/250 in order to forego a potential FA bidding war. In terms of the return, you can only get what is given. If they keep Contreras and let him walk they'll get a fairly high draft pick that sets a decent floor for what his return should be, but the team getting him doesn't get that pick and only gets him for 3 months + a playoff run. Teams are more hesitant than ever to trade top prospects, so the reality they have to face is they can either keep Contreras for the pick plus whatever increased likelihood of signing exists by not trading him, or they can take what they can get. I'm hopeful that if they do go that route they'll be able to do better than they did last July(though early signs are very very good on the success rate w/ Bryant/Baez/Rizzo returns), but it's also not gonna be one of the 10 best prospects in the game.

[Bertz]

It's hard to peg Willson's exact value, because you have the competing forces of "teams hate trading for catchers mid-season" and "very strong sellers market.". But I think by default we should expect something in the neighborhood of what we got for Javy/Bryant/Rizzo.

 

So taking learnings from those, you'd expect the going rate to be someone in or near the back of the top 100, plus a notable 2nd piece. By Fangraphs' Future Value parlance a 45 or a 50 (higher end of that scale the further out from MLB they are), and then another 40. With that framework in mind I think from the Mets Vientos and Diaz sounds about right.

 

That's not enough for Robertson too though. A lot of people do, but I don't have a problem with packaging guys as a seller. That said, I feel like if you're going that route you need to unlock a higher tier of headliner. You don't package guys unless there's some sort of synergy gained from doing both together.

[CubinNY]

Well, it looks like they at least avoided arbitration with him. Hopefully, that is a good sign.

[Regular Show]

I was watching The Just Baseball Show on Youtube while ago. They are making trade proposals for teams. The very first one involved our Cubs and the Mets. Here is the deal they proposed. Contreras and Robertson to the Mets for #5 prospect Mark Vientos, #10 prospect 18 year old pitcher Joel Diaz, #21 prospect Mike Vasil, and Dom Smith who is 26 years old. They said the Mets want to win this year and need to upgrade the catcher spot only as a rental. And need bullpen help. What do you make of their proposal?

 

I don't see that kind of trade happening and I'm pretty sure Contreras gets moved before Robertson. Jed will probably wait till closer to the trade deadline to maximize the return on Robertson. We've seen teams give up some really good prospects for relief help, and Robertson might be the best available reliever this year (on a very affordable contract).

 

I could see a potential match between the Mets and Cubs in a trade for Contreras. I don't think we have much interest in Dom Smith. We did have interest in Mark Vientos last year in a larger deal for KB and some additional pieces, but the Mets weren't interested in doing that. I'm not sure if Vientos is capable of playing 3B well, and if he isn't capable of playing 3B then that probably means LF. I don't think the bat is good enough for LF and he is a power-over-hit type prospect. I would rather target another team in a potential trade with a deep farm system like Cleveland/Tampa Bay.

 

That Nelson Cruz trade is looking great for Minnesota and Joe Ryan looks like a steal. Tampa Bay has such a loaded farm system/40-man crunch that they need to address and this creates a good opportunity for the Cubs. They've also shown interest in Contreras in the past.

[Tryptamine]

I was watching The Just Baseball Show on Youtube while ago. They are making trade proposals for teams. The very first one involved our Cubs and the Mets. Here is the deal they proposed. Contreras and Robertson to the Mets for #5 prospect Mark Vientos, #10 prospect 18 year old pitcher Joel Diaz, #21 prospect Mike Vasil, and Dom Smith who is 26 years old. They said the Mets want to win this year and need to upgrade the catcher spot only as a rental. And need bullpen help. What do you make of their proposal?

 

I don't see that kind of trade happening and I'm pretty sure Contreras gets moved before Robertson. Jed will probably wait till closer to the trade deadline to maximize the return on Robertson. We've seen teams give up some really good prospects for relief help, and Robertson might be the best available reliever this year (on a very affordable contract).

 

I could see a potential match between the Mets and Cubs in a trade for Contreras. I don't think we have much interest in Dom Smith. We did have interest in Mark Vientos last year in a larger deal for KB and some additional pieces, but the Mets weren't interested in doing that. I'm not sure if Vientos is capable of playing 3B well, and if he isn't capable of playing 3B then that probably means LF. I don't think the bat is good enough for LF and he is a power-over-hit type prospect. I would rather target another team in a potential trade with a deep farm system like Cleveland/Tampa Bay.

 

That Nelson Cruz trade is looking great for Minnesota and Joe Ryan looks like a steal. Tampa Bay has such a loaded farm system/40-man crunch that they need to address and this creates a good opportunity for the Cubs. They've also shown interest in Contreras in the past.

 

I wonder if Seth Johnson and Wilcox is at all doable with some adjustments. Wilcox is coming off TJS so his value should be suppressed and Johnson has been a guy whose stuff has outpaced his production so far, but there's considerable upside.

[Regular Show]

I was watching The Just Baseball Show on Youtube while ago. They are making trade proposals for teams. The very first one involved our Cubs and the Mets. Here is the deal they proposed. Contreras and Robertson to the Mets for #5 prospect Mark Vientos, #10 prospect 18 year old pitcher Joel Diaz, #21 prospect Mike Vasil, and Dom Smith who is 26 years old. They said the Mets want to win this year and need to upgrade the catcher spot only as a rental. And need bullpen help. What do you make of their proposal?

 

I don't see that kind of trade happening and I'm pretty sure Contreras gets moved before Robertson. Jed will probably wait till closer to the trade deadline to maximize the return on Robertson. We've seen teams give up some really good prospects for relief help, and Robertson might be the best available reliever this year (on a very affordable contract).

 

I could see a potential match between the Mets and Cubs in a trade for Contreras. I don't think we have much interest in Dom Smith. We did have interest in Mark Vientos last year in a larger deal for KB and some additional pieces, but the Mets weren't interested in doing that. I'm not sure if Vientos is capable of playing 3B well, and if he isn't capable of playing 3B then that probably means LF. I don't think the bat is good enough for LF and he is a power-over-hit type prospect. I would rather target another team in a potential trade with a deep farm system like Cleveland/Tampa Bay.

 

That Nelson Cruz trade is looking great for Minnesota and Joe Ryan looks like a steal. Tampa Bay has such a loaded farm system/40-man crunch that they need to address and this creates a good opportunity for the Cubs. They've also shown interest in Contreras in the past.

 

I wonder if Seth Johnson and Wilcox is at all doable with some adjustments. Wilcox is coming off TJS so his value should be suppressed and Johnson has been a guy whose stuff has outpaced his production so far, but there's considerable upside.

 

We actually had discussions and asked for Cole Wilcox in a potential Yu Darvish trade package with SD, but he was already included in the deal for Blake Snell. So we definitely know the Cubs had interest in him in the past. I believe he's recovered well from TJS and should begin throwing later this month or early July (not officially pitching or making an appearance, just starting a throwing program).

 

Seth Johnson has great stuff and is moving slowly through their system. TB is very conservative with their pitching prospects. I would definitely be interested in him as part of a package for Contreras, but not sure if TB makes him available.

 

From MLB Pipeline:

 

Johnson’s step forward didn’t go unnoticed by the rest of the industry, as clubs often inquired about him in trade talks, nor by Rays officials. Tampa Bay has been betting on Johnson’s upside since the Draft, and the club figures to be aggressive with him this season knowing he’ll be Rule 5 Draft-eligible at the end of the year. Johnson already had the athleticism and aptitude to become another high-end, homegrown starter for the Rays, and while he still has to prove himself over a full season against tougher competition, his second-half breakout cemented his status as a top pitching prospect to watch.