Bears off-season thread 2022

[JeffH]

Signing a quality veteran center would be one of the best moves for the future of this franchise. Not only because Mustipher is bad, but it would indicate that the new leadership team understands that he's bad. That would simply be huge.

[WrigleyField 22]

In former Bears new, Trubisky is signing with the Steelers.

[UMFan83]

In former Bears new, Trubisky is signing with the Steelers.

 

Good place for him to land IMO

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears signing Cincy DT Larry Ogunjobi

[WrigleyField 22]

That's a big number

[raw]

3-tech is really important in this defense. I didn't know it was 13M+ per year important in Year 1 though! Ogunjobi can play though and has been durable.

[WrigleyField 22]

While we have no prior for Poles, I'm going to guess this will be a small year 1 cap hit.

 

12M signing bonus, 1.35 Y1 and 13M Y2 guaranteed?

 

That's a 5.35 Y1 cap hit if no void years or 3.75 Y1 cap hit if 2 void years added.

[jersey cubs fan]

3-tech is really important in this defense. I didn't know it was 13M+ per year important in Year 1 though! Ogunjobi can play though and has been durable.

He did miss the playoffs and super bowl last year. Hopefully the foot isn't serious but he's the same age Tommie Harris was when injury ended his eliteness.

[WrigleyField 22]

Also mark this down as a likely 4th round credit (negative) for the 2023 comp pick formula. Edited March 14, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[Hairyducked Idiot]

oh yay I was worried we might not have too much of our resources tied up in late 20s defenders as usual

[jersey cubs fan]

They're losing Hicks and Mack, they obviously had to add a defensive lineman in free agency. And they have plenty of room to focus on offense.

 

 

In other news they brought in a new co-director of player personnel, Trey Koziol, from KC and previously TEN

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They're losing Hicks and Mack, they obviously had to add a defensive lineman in free agency. And they have plenty of room to focus on offense.

 

 

In other news they brought in a new co-director of player personnel, Trey Koziol, from KC and previously TEN

 

Objecively, you're 100% right. In the bigger picture, an offseason all works together, and usually a free agent signing like this leaves more room to draft offense. Picks are more important than cap space.

 

I don't care though I'm still gonna hot take it.

[jersey cubs fan]

They're losing Hicks and Mack, they obviously had to add a defensive lineman in free agency. And they have plenty of room to focus on offense.

 

 

In other news they brought in a new co-director of player personnel, Trey Koziol, from KC and previously TEN

 

Objecively, you're 100% right. In the bigger picture, an offseason all works together, and usually a free agent signing like this leaves more room to draft offense. Picks are more important than cap space.

 

I don't care though I'm still gonna hot take it.

Fair enough

[WrigleyField 22]

Also unless you're just sitting out FA you aren't getting much younger than Ogunjobi. His deal will go through his age 30 season.

[UMFan83]

PFF is just one data point but I saw Ogunjobi's PFF grade last year was 50.5, yuck

[David]

PFF is just one data point but I saw Ogunjobi's PFF grade last year was 50.5, yuck

 

 

different types of tackles/defenses but whatever

[jersey cubs fan]

James Daniels is gone.

 

Poles must have really not liked him.

[WrigleyField 22]

James Daniels is gone.

 

Poles must have really not liked him.

At only 3/27 too. I'd have easily gone up to 3/30.

 

That should count as a Rd 5 comp debit for Bears 2023 comp pick. As it stands now though, Ogunjobi offsets that. But there are a lot of compelling non CFA FA the Bears can build their line with (though it'd be a little old).

[WrigleyField 22]

We've just hit 24 hour mark of FA and it appears all of Poles goodwill on Bears Twitter is officially gone lol.

[UMFan83]

We've just hit 24 hour mark of FA and it appears all of Poles goodwill on Bears Twitter is officially gone lol.

 

It's a bit ridiculous. The Bears have a ton of roster spots to fill so they are going to add FAs. I always figured we would be shopping from more of the secondary tier of FAs anyways. Give the dude a chance to execute his plan.

[Old Style]

I’m not broken up over this.

[WrigleyField 22]

Just guessing here. But 60M AAV in spending was my target heading into yesterday. Ogunjobi is 13 of that so let's say 40-45 left to spend.

 

Need starters or main rotation pieces minimally at

WRx2

OLx2 or 3

MIKE LB

CB

S

 

So 7 or 8 starters still needed. And some rotation pieces maybe in that sub 2M range. A lot of non CFA options available in the remaining group, especially OL.

 

They could conceivably fill out their depth in wave 3 of FA and have no glaring hole heading into draft.

[raw]

JC Tretter cut, probably top 5 Center in the league.

La'el Collins likely going to be cut, a good starting RT (has G experience, could conceivably play LT too)

 

The Bears could still put together a really good OL and do it while getting multiple comp picks. Could also be going after Terron Armstead as well, maybe waiting for the market to come down a bit.

 

I actually like the approach at WR. Like I said earlier, Cooks could come available via trade or perhaps a cut. I love Will Fuller as a cheap 1-year flier guy, who's a great fit with Fields (game similar to Olave). There's also some cheap slots available in the 2nd/3rd tier that I like.

 

I will say that I wish Poles' 1 big signing in Tier 1 was OL. A couple guys I wanted were cheaper than Ogunjobi, who I like, but don't love. I love a couple guys in the draft (Wyatt, Winfrey), but understandable if Poles thinks those guys are too far out of reach at 39 (or is focused on WR/OL early in the draft).

[jumbo]

It's funny how everyone freaks out about the overpays in FA, but I am stunned at Kirk 4/72 or 4/84. It's far more than anyone thought, even though everyone agrees that FA day 1 is all about paying too much. It's a totally predictable cycle, but it still surprises.

Lots of fair-ish deals happen to, to lesser fanfare.

 

Ultimately the lesson is draft and develop. Buy low, buy castoffs. Not as easy as it sounds but when done correctly a major advantage.

 

I was listening to a podcast the other day about bad FA signings and how to avoid. One of the comments was to look at a player over a two year period. Ogunjobi is a perfect example. Last year he played for 1/6.2MM deal. Anyone could have had him. Now this year, he's 3/40, doubling his AAV. It happens every year, a guy breaks out and gets paid, but many of these guys overperform for a variety of reasons, cash in, and then regress and get cut. I don't know enough about Ogunjobi to say that will happen to him, but it's one of many red flags, or at least yellow flags for me when looking at this signing.

[WrigleyField 22]

It's funny how everyone freaks out about the overpays in FA, but I am stunned at Kirk 4/72 or 4/84. It's far more than anyone thought, even though everyone agrees that FA day 1 is all about paying too much. It's a totally predictable cycle, but it still surprises.

Lots of fair-ish deals happen to, to lesser fanfare.

 

Ultimately the lesson is draft and develop. Buy low, buy castoffs. Not as easy as it sounds but when done correctly a major advantage.

 

I was listening to a podcast the other day about bad FA signings and how to avoid. One of the comments was to look at a player over a two year period. Ogunjobi is a perfect example. Last year he played for 1/6.2MM deal. Anyone could have had him. Now this year, he's 3/40, doubling his AAV. It happens every year, a guy breaks out and gets paid, but many of these guys overperform for a variety of reasons, cash in, and then regress and get cut. I don't know enough about Ogunjobi to say that will happen to him, but it's one of many red flags, or at least yellow flags for me when looking at this signing.

I think theres a little bit of conflating correlation and causation with analysis like this sometimes. Bad teams aren't ncessarily bad because they overspend in FA. They're overspending in FA because they drafted poorly. If you're bad, you can splurge big in FA and still try to improve the draft part. NFL isn't great for tanking benefits. Careers are too short and schedule too much variance.

 

There are certain narrow ways where FA spending inhibits draft development, but if anything it actually could mean the best bet is spending big in just a few areas rather than spreading around too much. And you have to spend a 90% target in actual cash so it's hard to underspend and if eventually you roll all that space over and have like a 100M cap room year you're basically guaranteed to spend it inefficiently then because you can't spend thst much all at once efficiently (or it would be very difficult).