Tigers Sign Eduardo Rodriguez 5/77

[Bertz]

 

 

MLBTR projected 5/70 FWIW

[Rob]

Not a bad deal for the Tigers, honestly. His ERA sucked last year, but he was nearly a four win pitcher in 2019 and 2021 regardless. (And he missed 2020 due to COVID-induced heart problems, not arm issues). There's always risks with pitchers, but even if you think he's merely a 3.0 win guy now and subtract half a win per year, that's 10 wins for $77M. $7.7M per win would be fine anyways, but that's a fairly conservative projection. If you buy on him as a ~4.0 win guy, and you think he's a better bet for health and to stave off regression than normal, he could be worth significantly more than his contract.

 

That said, if things are going that well for him after two years, I expect him to pull the trigger on his opt-out. He'd still only be 30 that offseason, and could net another sizeable payday.

[Bertz]

Not a bad deal for the Tigers, honestly. His ERA sucked last year, but he was nearly a four win pitcher in 2019 and 2021 regardless. (And he missed 2020 due to COVID-induced heart problems, not arm issues). There's always risks with pitchers, but even if you think he's merely a 3.0 win guy now and subtract half a win per year, that's 10 wins for $77M. $7.7M per win would be fine anyways, but that's a fairly conservative projection. If you buy on him as a ~4.0 win guy, and you think he's a better bet for health and to stave off regression than normal, he could be worth significantly more than his contract.

 

That said, if things are going that well for him after two years, I expect him to pull the trigger on his opt-out. He'd still only be 30 that offseason, and could net another sizeable payday.

 

Yeah, Steamer sees him as essentially equal to Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, which seems a little rich for my blood. But he's clearly a solid #2/#3 type at least, and pretty young. This is probably a situation where that opt out is especially valuable, and brings the "real" value of the contract up closer to $90M.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Interested to see what this does to Detroit's pursuit of a SS. Do they go for broke with multiple QO guys? Target Baez to avoid a 2nd? Stop playing in those waters at that position? They were dead last in position player WAR last year so while that might be a bigger need they could spread that around to fill more gaps.

[Tryptamine]

Unfortunate, this was the guy I really wanted. FIP, xFIP and SIERA all like him quite a bit.

[Cubswin11]

I’m very impressed by the SP talent the Tigers have. Mize and Skubal are two of the better young SPs in the sport, Rodriguez has a ton of valuable experience at a young age, and the 4-5 spots have more talent than most (Boyd, Turnbull, Manning, etc). They might really take off next year with Torkelson and Greene coming up

If Turnbull is odd man out I wouldn’t mind trying to trade for him. Always have liked him. As TT pointed out about their position player WAR maybe something around Happ for him with another piece or two either way is something that could work.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Turnbull is odd man out I wouldn’t mind trying to trade for him. Always have liked him. As TT pointed out about their position player WAR maybe something around Happ for him with another piece or two either way is something that could work.

 

Both Turnbull and Boyd could have more value to the Cubs than a team dead set on competing if you like their profile. Unfortunately the one thing the Tigers seem to have decent options for is LH OF with Baddoo and Grossman, so I'm not sure how direct a match there is in trade unless they want to exchange upside for immediacy/stability and trade for Mills.

[Rob]

If Turnbull is odd man out I wouldn’t mind trying to trade for him. Always have liked him. As TT pointed out about their position player WAR maybe something around Happ for him with another piece or two either way is something that could work.

 

Both Turnbull and Boyd could have more value to the Cubs than a team dead set on competing if you like their profile. Unfortunately the one thing the Tigers seem to have decent options for is LH OF with Baddoo and Grossman, so I'm not sure how direct a match there is in trade unless they want to exchange upside for immediacy/stability and trade for Mills.

 

Are we thinking about the same Alec Mills? Two turns through the lineup if you're lucky, has only cleared 100 IP at the ML level once, ERA should be the 4.50-5.00 range?

 

Pitching lots of mediocre innings is worth something. I wont debate you there. Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis, etc... Perfectly fine careers and a great guy to have in the #4 or #5 spot.

 

But those guys had long track records of performing at that level while eating lots of innings. Mills averaged, what, four and a half innings per start? And there's no real indication as to how his arm will hold up trying to toss a full season's worth of pitches.

 

I can't imagine any team valuing him for stability purposes unless your only other option is to try to bring back Rich Harden.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Turnbull is odd man out I wouldn’t mind trying to trade for him. Always have liked him. As TT pointed out about their position player WAR maybe something around Happ for him with another piece or two either way is something that could work.

 

Both Turnbull and Boyd could have more value to the Cubs than a team dead set on competing if you like their profile. Unfortunately the one thing the Tigers seem to have decent options for is LH OF with Baddoo and Grossman, so I'm not sure how direct a match there is in trade unless they want to exchange upside for immediacy/stability and trade for Mills.

 

Are we thinking about the same Alec Mills? Two turns through the lineup if you're lucky, has only cleared 100 IP at the ML level once, ERA should be the 4.50-5.00 range?

 

Pitching lots of mediocre innings is worth something. I wont debate you there. Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis, etc... Perfectly fine careers and a great guy to have in the #4 or #5 spot.

 

But those guys had long track records of performing at that level while eating lots of innings. Mills averaged, what, four and a half innings per start? And there's no real indication as to how his arm will hold up trying to toss a full season's worth of pitches.

 

I can't imagine any team valuing him for stability purposes unless your only other option is to try to bring back Rich Harden.

 

I almost didn't use the word stability because I didn't want to give the impression I was considering Mills some mid-rotation workhorse in the Lackey/Hammel mold, but rather that he gives you more certainty than the player you're trading away in the upcoming year, and that could matter a lot to a team trying to compete now. In this case it's guys coming off major surgery, but for other teams it could be adding Mills to a deal for a SP prospect stalled at AAA/MLB to hedge against the loss of depth.

[Rob]

 

Both Turnbull and Boyd could have more value to the Cubs than a team dead set on competing if you like their profile. Unfortunately the one thing the Tigers seem to have decent options for is LH OF with Baddoo and Grossman, so I'm not sure how direct a match there is in trade unless they want to exchange upside for immediacy/stability and trade for Mills.

 

Are we thinking about the same Alec Mills? Two turns through the lineup if you're lucky, has only cleared 100 IP at the ML level once, ERA should be the 4.50-5.00 range?

 

Pitching lots of mediocre innings is worth something. I wont debate you there. Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis, etc... Perfectly fine careers and a great guy to have in the #4 or #5 spot.

 

But those guys had long track records of performing at that level while eating lots of innings. Mills averaged, what, four and a half innings per start? And there's no real indication as to how his arm will hold up trying to toss a full season's worth of pitches.

 

I can't imagine any team valuing him for stability purposes unless your only other option is to try to bring back Rich Harden.

 

I almost didn't use the word stability because I didn't want to give the impression I was considering Mills some mid-rotation workhorse in the Lackey/Hammel mold, but rather that he gives you more certainty than the player you're trading away in the upcoming year, and that could matter a lot to a team trying to compete now. In this case it's guys coming off major surgery, but for other teams it could be adding Mills to a deal for a SP prospect stalled at AAA/MLB to hedge against the loss of depth.

 

I can kinda see what you're saying if I squint, but Mills' value (and his upside) seems just so marginal that I feel like most teams would honestly rather take a chance with a random quad A guy than give up anything of any value whatsoever for Mills.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Are we thinking about the same Alec Mills? Two turns through the lineup if you're lucky, has only cleared 100 IP at the ML level once, ERA should be the 4.50-5.00 range?

 

Pitching lots of mediocre innings is worth something. I wont debate you there. Steve Trachsel, Jason Marquis, etc... Perfectly fine careers and a great guy to have in the #4 or #5 spot.

 

But those guys had long track records of performing at that level while eating lots of innings. Mills averaged, what, four and a half innings per start? And there's no real indication as to how his arm will hold up trying to toss a full season's worth of pitches.

 

I can't imagine any team valuing him for stability purposes unless your only other option is to try to bring back Rich Harden.

 

I almost didn't use the word stability because I didn't want to give the impression I was considering Mills some mid-rotation workhorse in the Lackey/Hammel mold, but rather that he gives you more certainty than the player you're trading away in the upcoming year, and that could matter a lot to a team trying to compete now. In this case it's guys coming off major surgery, but for other teams it could be adding Mills to a deal for a SP prospect stalled at AAA/MLB to hedge against the loss of depth.

 

I can kinda see what you're saying if I squint, but Mills' value (and his upside) seems just so marginal that I feel like most teams would honestly rather take a chance with a random quad A guy than give up anything of any value whatsoever for Mills.

 

That's very reasonable, but I think there's also the argument that Mills is more than just a replacement level guy who happened to get innings. He's started 31 games since the start of 2020 for 161 IP, 4.68 ERA/4.74 FIP/4.32 xFIP, that's basically a league average starter for that run environment. People are talking about paying Garrett Richards a fair amount of money in FA when he's in the same ballpark or worse, for example. I don't think there's teams beating down the door to add Mills to their pitching depth, but in the context of a deal that also provides some other benefit(prospect, money saved, etc) I think Mills is potentially appealing as a way to minimize the downside of a contending team trading away an arm near MLB level that they've soured on(for injury or performance reasons).