2021 AFL

[JeffH]

Weber, Velazquez, and Kilian are all in the starting lineup for the East squad in tonight's Fall Stars Game.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Weber, Velazquez, and Kilian are all in the starting lineup for the East squad in tonight's Fall Stars Game.

 

Which is on MLB Network right now. Rough start for Kilian.

[Bertz]

Feel like I like what I see from Kilian. Command is CLEARLY there, and I think he got up to 96 a few times. Doesn't look like much of a spin guy, but altogether looks like a #3 starter :dontknow:

[Bertz]

Feel like I like what I see from Kilian. Command is CLEARLY there, and I think he got up to 96 a few times. Doesn't look like much of a spin guy, but altogether looks like a #3 starter :dontknow:

 

Okay, to elaborate here:

 

Over the last 5 years, there have been 533 pitcher seasons of at least 100 IP

 

187 of those have included guys with an average fastball velo of at least 93.5 MPH (being conservative here, Caleb appears to be averaging 94.something tonight)

 

78 of those seasons had a walk rate of 7% or less

 

12 of those seasons had a worse than league average FIP

 

6 of THOSE had strong xFIP marks (meaning they merely got unlucky dong wise)

 

Like it's really hard to be bad with a good fastball and plus control. Kilian's gotta be one of the safest bets in the minors for league average or better SP production moving forward.

[Bertz]

[CubinNY]

He's destroying the AFL. I say give him a shot on the opening day roster. I'm not qualified to say that, but that's what I say.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[ChiCubsFan]

Where’s he going to rank on our prospect lists going into next year?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[TruffleShuffle]

 

lots of killian videos in that thread.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

Honestly, I think Kilian's got a decent argument for #2 prospect in the org right now. These last two starts have certainly been good results wise, but much more importantly (for me at least) it's the verification of his velocity.

 

The scouting reports have generally been like "yeah he touches 96 but don't get too excited this is a back end starter." Which for the record is not unreasonable, there are plenty of guys who throw 92 and touch 96 once or twice a game. 96 is the headliner but overall it's below average velocity in today's game. But we've now seen Kilian lives at 94, regularly touches 96, and even once got up to 98. This is not a finesse guy that can rear back, it's just plain old plus velocity. I imagine the spin numbers are nothing to write home about, but with that velo it's still plus stuff overall.

 

Results wise he's completely unimpeachable, he dominated AA and the AFL, it's highly unlikely AAA slows him down much next spring. You can fairly take the blue chip teenagers over him because of their immense upside, but otherwise I think it's hard to take any other non-Brennen prospects in the org above Kilian. Like this is basically what Shane Bieber was before he discovered spider tack.

[craig]

AGree and disagree.

Agree that Kilian is on a different planet from Velasquez, and AFL helped to confirm it for us. At time of trade, there was not scouting consensus that Kilian had quality big-league fastball. Fangraphs, for example, had him as a teens-level prospect for the Giants, and kind of like a 4th-round draft pick finesse pitcher. Then he didn't show anything in his two outings for Cubs, and went Covid. So, to me coming after the trade-time scouting reports, and then disappearing, it wasn't really clear what we had, or how good of a prospect he really was. In fact, it wasn't even entirely clear that he was the primary prospect in the Bryant trade, for all we knew Canario might perhaps have been as valued as Kilian, and I didn't know whether he might not be more of a Keegan Thompson Cory Abbott type prospect.

 

But now after the AFL, we've gotten lots of reports on his stuff, and it's obvious that his velocity is big-league legit, and that with his sinker/cutter/4-seamer/sinker/curve, that he's got a big-league arsenal. So it seems that he's been fully affirmed as having a big-league arm with big-league stuff, and a legit chance to be a solid big-league starter.

 

Velasquez started and finished at a different place. I think the AFL has confirmed that he's got big-league power, if he can get to it; and that some of his improvement is legit. Kilian was affirmed as a serious big-league prospect. Velasques I think is now affirmed as a major-league possibilty. But the odds of him ever being a league average or asset starter isn't nearly as high as for Kilian. But, I think a few months ago I wouldn't have given him any consideration; now he's worth considering as a possibility, even though still an improbable one.