Bulls '20-'21

[raw]

Well obviously you have to trade Zach now. SMH

 

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[ChiCubsFan]

Of course they win when you finally want them to lose.

[CubColtPacer]

I've been trying to figure out the exact protections on these Bulls picks to the Magic. Normally, RealGM would give us some detail of what happens next if the first pick falls under its protected range. It might say it's protected the year after. It might say it's unprotected. It might say it turns into two second round picks instead. Or it might say it is extinguished.

 

But a month after the trade, it says nothing. Just protected 1-4 in 2021, that's it. And the only clue on the 2023 pick is that it says if conveyable. Obviously if the 2021 pick rolled over to 2022 the 2023 pick wouldn't be able to be traded since you can't trade picks in consecutive years. But normally you will see in a scenario like that the second pick is just labeled as two years after the first pick conveys. This pick doesn't, nor does it explain what the future protections on that pick would be after 2023.

 

Does anyone have any idea what the actual details are?

[Andy]

I've been trying to figure out the exact protections on these Bulls picks to the Magic. Normally, RealGM would give us some detail of what happens next if the first pick falls under its protected range. It might say it's protected the year after. It might say it's unprotected. It might say it turns into two second round picks instead. Or it might say it is extinguished.

 

But a month after the trade, it says nothing. Just protected 1-4 in 2021, that's it. And the only clue on the 2023 pick is that it says if conveyable. Obviously if the 2021 pick rolled over to 2022 the 2023 pick wouldn't be able to be traded since you can't trade picks in consecutive years. But normally you will see in a scenario like that the second pick is just labeled as two years after the first pick conveys. This pick doesn't, nor does it explain what the future protections on that pick would be after 2023.

 

Does anyone have any idea what the actual details are?

Unless I missed something, both the '21 and '23 pick are top-4 protected, although I haven't seen anything on how those picks are conveyed if they fall in the top 4.

[UMFan83]

I've been trying to figure out the exact protections on these Bulls picks to the Magic. Normally, RealGM would give us some detail of what happens next if the first pick falls under its protected range. It might say it's protected the year after. It might say it's unprotected. It might say it turns into two second round picks instead. Or it might say it is extinguished.

 

But a month after the trade, it says nothing. Just protected 1-4 in 2021, that's it. And the only clue on the 2023 pick is that it says if conveyable. Obviously if the 2021 pick rolled over to 2022 the 2023 pick wouldn't be able to be traded since you can't trade picks in consecutive years. But normally you will see in a scenario like that the second pick is just labeled as two years after the first pick conveys. This pick doesn't, nor does it explain what the future protections on that pick would be after 2023.

 

Does anyone have any idea what the actual details are?

Unless I missed something, both the '21 and '23 pick are top-4 protected, although I haven't seen anything on how those picks are conveyed if they fall in the top 4.

 

I believe I read the other day that if the '21 pick ends up as a Top 4 pick, then the first 1st rounder goes to 2022 and is Top 3 protected.

 

I have no idea what happens if the Bulls also retain the 2022 pick.

[17 Seconds]

I didn't even realize that Washington is going to beat them out for the last play-in spot. I know zach is out but this wasnt a very confidence inspiring first season for BD. I wonder where the bulls and knicks would be in the standings if they switched coaches.

[ChiCubsFan]

Blowing up the lotto balls, but nice to see the team playing solid basketball with Lavine returning

[17 Seconds]

Blowing up the lotto balls, but nice to see the team playing solid basketball with Lavine returning

 

hopefully that doesn't keep them from blowing up everything outside of zach/vuc/williams. i'm worried that coby's hot scoring streak will make them keep him.

[ChiCubsFan]

Blowing up the lotto balls, but nice to see the team playing solid basketball with Lavine returning

 

hopefully that doesn't keep them from blowing up everything outside of zach/vuc/williams. i'm worried that coby's hot scoring streak will make them keep him.

 

They probably should. Unless someone is giving a lottery pick for him? He seems to have kind of figured out what can make him an effective offensive player. He’s not trying to do too much and mostly just being a catch and shoot off ball scorer. This works when you play with Vuc and Zach, who both need the ball a lot. Occasionally he’ll push the ball on the fast break and use his speed to create offense before the defense can get set. This works, as opposed to when he was trying to drive in the half court and running into multiple guys fighting over who got to block his shot. His defense, while better, has still been bad. Particularly his pick and roll defense. The whole team sucks here.

 

Not sure what the plan is this offseason. You don’t really have many assets to make a trade for someone like Brogdon, who would be an ideal trade target. Maybe Ball still on the table? But I believe you have to renounce everyone for him and I kind of want to hang onto Theis. Would a sign and trade for Sato, Thad, White work? Would NO have any interest in them? With Zion being point forward maybe Coby is a good fit there.

[17 Seconds]

if coby white is the starting point guard next year, they have failed miserably. hes an alright scorer. he is not a point guard.

 

the recent garbage time wins mean close to nothing. they need to make huge changes or else we are going to see the same broken team next year.

[ChiCubsFan]

if coby white is the starting point guard next year, they have failed miserably. hes an alright scorer. he is not a point guard.

 

the recent garbage time wins mean close to nothing. they need to make huge changes or else we are going to see the same broken team next year.

 

Agreed. Doesn’t mean you shouldn’t keep him.

[UMFan83]

Now that the Bulls are 99.9% eliminated from playoff contention, where we do they go from here? Admittedly I didnt watch them a ton but I follow whats going on fairly consistently. Our 2 best players in terms of on/off court numbers are Thad Young and Garrett Temple, both guys who are short term. The Bulls have been 4 points worse when Vuc is on the court (though likely hurts that most of his time has been without Lavine). Furthermore they are 12 points worse when Patrick Williams is on the court. Concerning but he's shown flashes and is super young. His ceiling is still there but its still a lowish probability ceiling.

 

If I'm reading correctly, the Bulls are about $15m under the cap next year but only have 9 players under contract (will lose Lauri, Theis, Temple, Valentine). They do not own their first round pick in 2 of the next 3 years most likely. They aren't in a terrible position at all but not in a great one either. How do the Bulls get better? They can run it back and hope that the team gels around Vuc-Lavine and hope Williams takes a step, they could mix it up a bit since most of their assets have some value (unlike the dying days of the Butler era). Still think their best chances of success are either: they get lucky and get a top 4 pick this year, Patrick Williams makes a giant developmental leap, and/or a star forces their way to Chicago.

[raw]

Now that the Bulls are 99.9% eliminated from playoff contention, where we do they go from here? Admittedly I didnt watch them a ton but I follow whats going on fairly consistently. Our 2 best players in terms of on/off court numbers are Thad Young and Garrett Temple, both guys who are short term. The Bulls have been 4 points worse when Vuc is on the court (though likely hurts that most of his time has been without Lavine). Furthermore they are 12 points worse when Patrick Williams is on the court. Concerning but he's shown flashes and is super young. His ceiling is still there but its still a lowish probability ceiling.

 

If I'm reading correctly, the Bulls are about $15m under the cap next year but only have 9 players under contract (will lose Lauri, Theis, Temple, Valentine). They do not own their first round pick in 2 of the next 3 years most likely. They aren't in a terrible position at all but not in a great one either. How do the Bulls get better? They can run it back and hope that the team gels around Vuc-Lavine and hope Williams takes a step, they could mix it up a bit since most of their assets have some value (unlike the dying days of the Butler era). Still think their best chances of success are either: they get lucky and get a top 4 pick this year, Patrick Williams makes a giant developmental leap, and/or a star forces their way to Chicago.

 

Star ain't happening. Word is they will go big after a PG this offseason. I've heard Lonzo Ball and I've heard potential trade for Malcolm Brogdon. I think they bring back Theis for toughness. Not sure how restricted FA works, but I wonder if they'd try a sign and trade type thing for Lauri. But anyway, I think they'll ride with:

 

Ball/Brogdon, LaVine, find a role player at SF, Williams, Vucevic with White, Young and Theis as the main guys off the bench. I'd love for them to bring back Temple and give Troy Brown a bigger role. But I think they'll give this team a 2 or 3 year run making tweaks to the role players if needed, and then see where they are when Lavine is approaching 30 (need to be re-signed), guys like Vuc and Williams need to be re-signed or not and they finally get to draft in the 1st round again.

[ChiCubsFan]

+/- is trash.

 

Thad doesn’t fit well with Vuc. I really wish we would have moved Thad for a late FRP when we had the chance. He’s a solid rotation player and has value, but his money is probably better spent on other parts of the roster. We can probably move him in the offseason if needed to create space for Lonzo, for example.

[WrigleyField 22]

Just saw a great summary on RealGM the other day on this;

 

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2079458

(the link to Shamsports is also a great tool to play around with scenarios on your own as well)

 

Various things we can do:

Renounce Lauri/Theis other free agents

Waive/Stretch Aminu

Decline Arci

Lose our pick to Orlando

Cap room: 18.2M

http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=17410362766097d7c60255c871283676

 

Above Waive stretch Thad - 29.5M

http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=12093240556097d7e1465c3187802678

 

Above waive stretch Sato (instead of Thad) - 25M

http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=10602295286097d7f8c2e00294399193

 

Above waive stretch both - 36M

http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=13694868956097d80a159a2465717434

 

Keep Theis around but waive everyone else and max cap space: 28.3M

http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=8482150186097d88907823613764680

[Derwood]

Difficulty: the Bulls haven't been able to lure any top free agents in years. Cap space doesn't mean squat in this league when your top stars want to assemble on three teams

[squally1313]

Difficulty: the Bulls haven't been able to lure any top free agents in years. Cap space doesn't mean squat in this league when your top stars want to assemble on three teams

 

Picking a random list of top free agents, you get the following:

 

Kawhi (player option with LAC, he's not coming)

John Collins (seems redundant with Vuc)

Mike Conley (will be 34 on opening night next year)

Oladipo (redundant with Zach)

Jarrett Allen (center, could obviously help, restricted FA)

DeRozan (redundant with Zach)

CP3 (not giving up $45m option)

Lowry (mid 30s)

Lonzo (has said he wants to play in Chicago)

 

So basically not sure how we could do much better than Ball this year anyways, and probably won't take up all your cap space. Get rid of everyone listed above besides Theis and hope everyone takes a step forward.

[WrigleyField 22]

Well AKME and Vooch have to give them a better chance than GarPax and Lavine alone. But yea, its not necessarily a great FA year. And this would otherwise be a great window to make a big move before Zach is expensive because you can use bird rights on him.

 

Trade wise they're just limited in the fact that they're not going to be able to deal FRPs for a few years. If there were any salary dump targets though I think they could do a Sato-Thad swap and pick up a FRP (Sato and Thad are only partially guaranteed, so good for a team trying to get under tax/cap). Then they have additional assets to deal from to make another move as well.

 

I guess they just need to the best they can in FA as they can, but still keep an eye towards a consolidation trade. That Vooch move would have been a lot better if they had pulled off a Ball trade at the deadline too. As is, they're still kind of straddling a weird line between getting under the cap or being able to build using bird rights and the exceptions.

[UMFan83]

The Bulls are such a bad tanking team. They came into the night with 26.3% odds of keeping their first round pick and thus drafting in the top 4. They won a meaningless game against the Bucks G-League team while the Pelicans and Kings lost, taking their odds down to 19% or so. In isolation whatever but the Bulls have consistently done this during their rebuild but this time it’s not the difference between picking top 4 and 7th, it’s the difference between top 4 and not having a 1st rounder

[ChiCubsFan]

Such a bad win. Dotson, Green, Mokoka should have all been starting and playing 30-40 minutes. Easy to brush it off as using it to evaluate those guys in real game situations. Like what the hell does Thad dropping 20 points do for us? Markkannen and White with efficient 17 and 19 point games? Ugh. Just so dumb. Resting Zach and Vuc was not enough.

[Derwood]

[CubColtPacer]

I noticed when I looked at realgm that the question I had asked about the draft pick protections and what happens if the Bulls move up in the lottery have finally been answered. Here's the full details:

 

Protected 1-4 this year (this part we already knew)

If the pick doesn't go out this year, then protected 1-3 next year.

If the pick doesn't convey next year, it turns into two second round picks instead.

 

Two years after the first pick conveys (or in 2023 if the first pick never conveys), follow the exact same process for the second pick.