2020 Playoff Race

[bukie]

The Twins have clinched a playoff spot.

 

The Nationals have been eliminated from the NL East title, despite equalling their 50 game start from last season.

[UMFan83]

At this point I think I’m rooting for the Cardinals/Reds to pass the Marlins for the 5 seed. I have absolutely no appetite for playing an NL Central team in the WC round. The Braves have the Marlins and Red Sox to finish the year while it looks like the White Sox are going to be fighting for the division this weekend, so I think it’s likely the Cubs drop to the 3rd seed, almost locking in a series with the Cardinals or Reds

[Cubswin11]

At this point I think I’m rooting for the Cardinals/Reds to pass the Marlins for the 5 seed. I have absolutely no appetite for playing an NL Central team in the WC round. The Braves have the Marlins and Red Sox to finish the year while it looks like the White Sox are going to be fighting for the division this weekend, so I think it’s likely the Cubs drop to the 3rd seed, almost locking in a series with the Cardinals or Reds

My ideal outcome is the Cardinals have to play that double header Monday vs the Tigers and then we get them as the 6/7 being the 2/3 seed, Reds finish as the 8 seed and the pitching wipes out the Dodgers round 1.

[UMFan83]

At this point I think I’m rooting for the Cardinals/Reds to pass the Marlins for the 5 seed. I have absolutely no appetite for playing an NL Central team in the WC round. The Braves have the Marlins and Red Sox to finish the year while it looks like the White Sox are going to be fighting for the division this weekend, so I think it’s likely the Cubs drop to the 3rd seed, almost locking in a series with the Cardinals or Reds

My ideal outcome is the Cardinals have to play that double header Monday vs the Tigers and then we get them as the 6/7 being the 2/3 seed, Reds finish as the 8 seed and the pitching wipes out the Dodgers round 1.

 

That’s not a bad outcome. I still don’t want the Cubs to play the Cardinals in round 1. Mostly because I’m a wuss and since I don’t think the Cubs are going to win the World Series this year, I’d rather root for avoiding any chance of the Cardinals knocking us off even if I know strategically it is probably the better option

[Cubswin11]

At this point I think I’m rooting for the Cardinals/Reds to pass the Marlins for the 5 seed. I have absolutely no appetite for playing an NL Central team in the WC round. The Braves have the Marlins and Red Sox to finish the year while it looks like the White Sox are going to be fighting for the division this weekend, so I think it’s likely the Cubs drop to the 3rd seed, almost locking in a series with the Cardinals or Reds

My ideal outcome is the Cardinals have to play that double header Monday vs the Tigers and then we get them as the 6/7 being the 2/3 seed, Reds finish as the 8 seed and the pitching wipes out the Dodgers round 1.

 

That’s not a bad outcome. I still don’t want the Cubs to play the Cardinals in round 1. Mostly because I’m a wuss and since I don’t think the Cubs are going to win the World Series this year, I’d rather root for avoiding any chance of the Cardinals knocking us off even if I know strategically it is probably the better option

If the Dodgers get knocked out we have as good a chance as anybody to get there in the NL. The Cardinals are probably the worst potential playoff team we can reasonably play, especially with having to play all those games. Give me the most favorable matchup vs them instead of a series vs a team we wouldn’t mind losing to who’s better.

[bukie]

Playoff update 9/21:

 

Current AL seedings (magic #):

1. Rays 36-19 (X)

2. White Sox 34-20 (X)

3. Athletics 33-20 (X)

4. Twins 33-22 (X)

5. Yankees 31-23 (X)

6. Astros 27-27 (4)

7. Indians 30-24 (1)

8. Blue Jays 28-26 (3)

-----------------------------

Outside looking in (elimination #):

9. Mariners 24-30 (4)

10. Angels 24-31 (3)

11. Orioles 23-31 (2)

12. Tigers 22-30 (X)

13. Royals 22-32 (X)

14. Red Sox 20-34 (X)

15. Rangers 19-35 (X)

 

Current NL seedings (magic #):

1. Dodgers 38-16 (X)

2. Cubs 32-22 (2)

3. Braves 32-22 (2)

4. Padres 34-20 (X)

5. Marlins 28-26 (6)

6. Cardinals 26-25 (8)

7. Reds 28-27 (6)

8. Phillies 27-27 (8)

----------------------------

Outside looking in (elimination #):

9. Giants 26-26 (8)

10. Brewers 26-27 (8)

11. Mets 24-30 (5)

12. Rockies 23-29 (6)

13. Nationals 21-32 (3)

14. Diamondbacks 20-34 (X)

15. Pirates 15-39 (X)

 

Clinches:

- The Athletics have clinched the AL West, no worse than the 3 seed.

- The Dodgers have clinched a playoff spot, no worse than the 4 seed.

- The Rays have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 5 seed.

- The Padres have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 6 seed.

- The White Sox have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 7 seed.

- The Twins have clinched a playoff spot.

- The Yankees have clinched a playoff spot.

 

Eliminations:

- The Pirates, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Royals and Tigers are eliminated from playoff contention.

- The Nationals can't win or finish 2nd in the NL East.

- The Orioles can't win or finish 2nd in the AL East.

- The Angels can't win the AL West.

- The Mariners can't win the AL West.

- The Rockies can't win or finish 2nd in the NL West.

- The Mets can't win the NL East.

- The Giants can't win the NL West.

- The Blue Jays can't win the AL East.

 

Potential clinches tomorrow:

- Rays clinch the AL East with a win or Yankees loss

- White Sox clinch no worse than 2nd in the AL Central with a win.

- Cubs clinch a playoff spot with a win and a result in the Brewers-Reds game or a loss by the Phillies or Giants.

- Braves clinch a playoff spot with a win and a result in the Brewers-Reds game or a loss by the Phillies or Giants.

- Indians clinch a playoff spot with a win or Mariners loss.

[UMFan83]

Playoff update 9/21:

 

Current AL seedings (magic #):

1. Rays 36-19 (X)

2. White Sox 34-20 (X)

3. Athletics 33-20 (X)

4. Twins 33-22 (X)

5. Yankees 31-23 (X)

6. Astros 27-27 (4)

7. Indians 30-24 (1)

8. Blue Jays 28-26 (3)

-----------------------------

Outside looking in (elimination #):

9. Mariners 24-30 (4)

10. Angels 24-31 (3)

11. Orioles 23-31 (2)

12. Tigers 22-30 (X)

13. Royals 22-32 (X)

14. Red Sox 20-34 (X)

15. Rangers 19-35 (X)

 

Current NL seedings (magic #):

1. Dodgers 38-16 (X)

2. Cubs 32-22 (2)

3. Braves 32-22 (2)

4. Padres 34-20 (X)

5. Marlins 28-26 (6)

6. Cardinals 26-25 (8)

7. Reds 28-27 (6)

8. Phillies 27-27 (8)

----------------------------

Outside looking in (elimination #):

9. Giants 26-26 (8)

10. Brewers 26-27 (8)

11. Mets 24-30 (5)

12. Rockies 23-29 (6)

13. Nationals 21-32 (3)

14. Diamondbacks 20-34 (X)

15. Pirates 15-39 (X)

 

Clinches:

- The Athletics have clinched the AL West, no worse than the 3 seed.

- The Dodgers have clinched a playoff spot, no worse than the 4 seed.

- The Rays have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 5 seed.

- The Padres have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 6 seed.

- The White Sox have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 7 seed.

- The Twins have clinched a playoff spot.

- The Yankees have clinched a playoff spot.

 

Eliminations:

- The Pirates, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Royals and Tigers are eliminated from playoff contention.

- The Nationals can't win or finish 2nd in the NL East.

- The Orioles can't win or finish 2nd in the AL East.

- The Angels can't win the AL West.

- The Mariners can't win the AL West.

- The Rockies can't win or finish 2nd in the NL West.

- The Mets can't win the NL East.

- The Giants can't win the NL West.

- The Blue Jays can't win the AL East.

 

Potential clinches tomorrow:

- Rays clinch the AL East with a win or Yankees loss

- White Sox clinch no worse than 2nd in the AL Central with a win.

- Cubs clinch a playoff spot with a win and a result in the Brewers-Reds game or a loss by the Phillies or Giants.

- Braves clinch a playoff spot with a win and a result in the Brewers-Reds game or a loss by the Phillies or Giants.

- Indians clinch a playoff spot with a win or Mariners loss.

 

I’m assuming that “a result” means that the game is completed regardless of who wins? Wouldn’t that mean that the Cubs will be in with a win regardless?

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Playoff update 9/21:

 

Current AL seedings (magic #):

1. Rays 36-19 (X)

2. White Sox 34-20 (X)

3. Athletics 33-20 (X)

4. Twins 33-22 (X)

5. Yankees 31-23 (X)

6. Astros 27-27 (4)

7. Indians 30-24 (1)

8. Blue Jays 28-26 (3)

-----------------------------

Outside looking in (elimination #):

9. Mariners 24-30 (4)

10. Angels 24-31 (3)

11. Orioles 23-31 (2)

12. Tigers 22-30 (X)

13. Royals 22-32 (X)

14. Red Sox 20-34 (X)

15. Rangers 19-35 (X)

 

Current NL seedings (magic #):

1. Dodgers 38-16 (X)

2. Cubs 32-22 (2)

3. Braves 32-22 (2)

4. Padres 34-20 (X)

5. Marlins 28-26 (6)

6. Cardinals 26-25 (8)

7. Reds 28-27 (6)

8. Phillies 27-27 (8)

----------------------------

Outside looking in (elimination #):

9. Giants 26-26 (8)

10. Brewers 26-27 (8)

11. Mets 24-30 (5)

12. Rockies 23-29 (6)

13. Nationals 21-32 (3)

14. Diamondbacks 20-34 (X)

15. Pirates 15-39 (X)

 

Clinches:

- The Athletics have clinched the AL West, no worse than the 3 seed.

- The Dodgers have clinched a playoff spot, no worse than the 4 seed.

- The Rays have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 5 seed.

- The Padres have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 6 seed.

- The White Sox have clinched a playoff spot no worse than the 7 seed.

- The Twins have clinched a playoff spot.

- The Yankees have clinched a playoff spot.

 

Eliminations:

- The Pirates, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Royals and Tigers are eliminated from playoff contention.

- The Nationals can't win or finish 2nd in the NL East.

- The Orioles can't win or finish 2nd in the AL East.

- The Angels can't win the AL West.

- The Mariners can't win the AL West.

- The Rockies can't win or finish 2nd in the NL West.

- The Mets can't win the NL East.

- The Giants can't win the NL West.

- The Blue Jays can't win the AL East.

 

Potential clinches tomorrow:

- Rays clinch the AL East with a win or Yankees loss

- White Sox clinch no worse than 2nd in the AL Central with a win.

- Cubs clinch a playoff spot with a win and a result in the Brewers-Reds game or a loss by the Phillies or Giants.

- Braves clinch a playoff spot with a win and a result in the Brewers-Reds game or a loss by the Phillies or Giants.

- Indians clinch a playoff spot with a win or Mariners loss.

 

I’m assuming that “a result” means that the game is completed regardless of who wins? Wouldn’t that mean that the Cubs will be in with a win regardless?

 

They are in with a win but for it to be official tomorrow that game can’t be postponed.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Just hoping the Mariners can sweep Houston somehow.

[bukie]

I’m assuming that “a result” means that the game is completed regardless of who wins? Wouldn’t that mean that the Cubs will be in with a win regardless?

 

If the game gets rained out/cancelled it wouldn't result in a clinch. But yes, if the Cubs win, there's a heavily likely chance they clinch tomorrow.

[bukie]

Also, one of my favorite stat geek things is looking at Fangraphs playoff odds: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

As of right now, there are 10 NL teams with at least a 49% chance of getting a playoff spot with just 6 days to play, and 2 of those teams will not in fact get a playoff spot.

[soccer10k]

I’m assuming that “a result” means that the game is completed regardless of who wins? Wouldn’t that mean that the Cubs will be in with a win regardless?

 

If the game gets rained out/cancelled it wouldn't result in a clinch. But yes, if the Cubs win, there's a heavily likely chance they clinch tomorrow.

 

So the Cubs have the tiebreaker over the Giants then? Because if the Cubs win, they max out at 27 losses. If Mil-Cin gets postponed, they’re both at 27 and if the Giants lose, they’re at 27. So theoretically, the Cubs could then lose out after tomorrow, Reds win out, Phillies win out and Giants win out. All would then be 33-27. We’d also assume the Cards end up at 34-26 or better because if they win 32, Cubs would be top-2 in the division.

 

I realize this is all largely irrelevant because the odds of all that happening aren’t even worth worrying about. Just curious as to the tiebreakers.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Giants about to lose to the Rox now, so they’ll be at 27 losses tonight.

[Brian]

How cruel that even with an 8 team field the Twins are looking at facing the Yankees in the postseason again.

[Bertz]

Brett had a good point in his post this AM

 

Jeff Passan has a long final week writeup, and amid the possible chaos in the lower seeds of the postseason race, one thing becomes clear: you’re probably hoping the Cubs match up with the Phillies in the opening round of the playoffs. For one thing, they’ve got injury issues with three of their most important hitters (Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins). For another thing, in order to make the playoffs, the Phillies might have to pitch Aaron Nola on short rest on Saturday, which in turn could impact him in the initial postseason series. Yeah, the Giants are probably the preference even beyond the Phillies, but that’s looking unlikely. Then you’ve got the Reds and Marlins – and their scary pitching – as the other possibilities. I guess the Brewers are in there, too, if they get hot. I’d take that. Devin Williams is terrifying, but he’s about it.

 

On paper the Phillies are one of the scariest potential opponents in the first round, but Nola either has to pitch on short rest one of his next two starts or be held back for a game 3. Add the injuries to their hitters and their laughably bad pen and maybe they're the opponent we should he rooting for.

[UMFan83]

Brett had a good point in his post this AM

 

Jeff Passan has a long final week writeup, and amid the possible chaos in the lower seeds of the postseason race, one thing becomes clear: you’re probably hoping the Cubs match up with the Phillies in the opening round of the playoffs. For one thing, they’ve got injury issues with three of their most important hitters (Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins). For another thing, in order to make the playoffs, the Phillies might have to pitch Aaron Nola on short rest on Saturday, which in turn could impact him in the initial postseason series. Yeah, the Giants are probably the preference even beyond the Phillies, but that’s looking unlikely. Then you’ve got the Reds and Marlins – and their scary pitching – as the other possibilities. I guess the Brewers are in there, too, if they get hot. I’d take that. Devin Williams is terrifying, but he’s about it.

 

On paper the Phillies are one of the scariest potential opponents in the first round, but Nola either has to pitch on short rest one of his next two starts or be held back for a game 3. Add the injuries to their hitters and their laughably bad pen and maybe they're the opponent we should he rooting for.

 

I'm more worried about our potential opponent's hitters than pitchers. With our offense we're probably not going to score a ton of runs regardless of who we are facing. Of potential playoff teams, only the Indians offense has performed worse than ours with regards to wRC+ and wOBA over the course of this admittedly short season, and their performance has gotten worse as the season has gone on.* But if our pitching can shut down the opponent's offense, we are in a good position to advance.

 

*yes I still hold out hope that the team's collective talent can get it together and then we are a legit scary team.

[champaignchris]

Brett had a good point in his post this AM

 

Jeff Passan has a long final week writeup, and amid the possible chaos in the lower seeds of the postseason race, one thing becomes clear: you’re probably hoping the Cubs match up with the Phillies in the opening round of the playoffs. For one thing, they’ve got injury issues with three of their most important hitters (Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins). For another thing, in order to make the playoffs, the Phillies might have to pitch Aaron Nola on short rest on Saturday, which in turn could impact him in the initial postseason series. Yeah, the Giants are probably the preference even beyond the Phillies, but that’s looking unlikely. Then you’ve got the Reds and Marlins – and their scary pitching – as the other possibilities. I guess the Brewers are in there, too, if they get hot. I’d take that. Devin Williams is terrifying, but he’s about it.

 

On paper the Phillies are one of the scariest potential opponents in the first round, but Nola either has to pitch on short rest one of his next two starts or be held back for a game 3. Add the injuries to their hitters and their laughably bad pen and maybe they're the opponent we should he rooting for.

 

I'm more worried about our potential opponent's hitters than pitchers. With our offense we're probably not going to score a ton of runs regardless of who we are facing. Of potential playoff teams, only the Indians offense has performed worse than ours with regards to wRC+ and wOBA over the course of this admittedly short season, and their performance has gotten worse as the season has gone on.* But if our pitching can shut down the opponent's offense, we are in a good position to advance.

 

*yes I still hold out hope that the team's collective talent can get it together and then we are a legit scary team.

 

If you want to face a bad offense, it doesn’t get much worse than the Reds.

 

Although Cardinals might actually be slightly worse on the road and have a much more fragile pitching staff.

[UMFan83]

Brett had a good point in his post this AM

 

 

 

On paper the Phillies are one of the scariest potential opponents in the first round, but Nola either has to pitch on short rest one of his next two starts or be held back for a game 3. Add the injuries to their hitters and their laughably bad pen and maybe they're the opponent we should he rooting for.

 

I'm more worried about our potential opponent's hitters than pitchers. With our offense we're probably not going to score a ton of runs regardless of who we are facing. Of potential playoff teams, only the Indians offense has performed worse than ours with regards to wRC+ and wOBA over the course of this admittedly short season, and their performance has gotten worse as the season has gone on.* But if our pitching can shut down the opponent's offense, we are in a good position to advance.

 

*yes I still hold out hope that the team's collective talent can get it together and then we are a legit scary team.

 

If you want to face a bad offense, it doesn’t get much worse than the Reds.

 

Although Cardinals might actually be slightly worse on the road and have a much more fragile pitching staff.

 

I see the Reds like the Cubs offense. A bunch of their best players having really down years. Suarez will petrify me every time he comes up, as well BD Nick. Votto's decline is likely more age related but he still seems to crush us even this year. Shogo and Moustakas both hit us well in the last series too. At least they don't have Billy Hamilton anymore.

[bukie]

I'm sure whichever 30-30 team the Cubs end up playing in the postseason will be an underdog to the Cubs. I'm more curious to see if those teams will do what they can to avoid the Dodgers or Padres in the playoffs by sandbagging the 5 seed.

[bukie]

I'm also curious to see if MLB makes the Cardinals play those 2 games against the Tigers if they end up in a tied scenario where they are 29-29 and other teams are 30-30, or if they'll just go to the tiebreakers since the winning percentage is identical.

 

Or if they finish 30-28 and the Reds finish 31-29, if they'll treat it as a tied scenario or they give the Cards the advantage because of a single percentage point of advantage.

[champaignchris]

I'm also curious to see if MLB makes the Cardinals play those 2 games against the Tigers if they end up in a tied scenario where they are 29-29 and other teams are 30-30, or if they'll just go to the tiebreakers since the winning percentage is identical.

 

Or if they finish 30-28 and the Reds finish 31-29, if they'll treat it as a tied scenario or they give the Cards the advantage because of a single percentage point of advantage.

 

Per the Passan article on ESPN.com today, the Cardinals will play the Tigers doubleheader (or a game of it) if it determines whether someone makes the playoffs. They will not play the doubleheader merely to determine seeding.

 

When determine seeding, they will go to winning percentage first. In your 30-28 versus 31-29 scenario, the Cardinals would get the better seed.

[soccer10k]

I'm also curious to see if MLB makes the Cardinals play those 2 games against the Tigers if they end up in a tied scenario where they are 29-29 and other teams are 30-30, or if they'll just go to the tiebreakers since the winning percentage is identical.

 

Or if they finish 30-28 and the Reds finish 31-29, if they'll treat it as a tied scenario or they give the Cards the advantage because of a single percentage point of advantage.

 

Per the Passan article on ESPN.com today, the Cardinals will play the Tigers doubleheader (or a game of it) if it determines whether someone makes the playoffs. They will not play the doubleheader merely to determine seeding.

 

When determine seeding, they will go to winning percentage first. In your 30-28 versus 31-29 scenario, the Cardinals would get the better seed.

 

The only way they’d play for seeding is the 4-5 which, while mathematically is still possible, obviously isn’t going to come into play.

[Bertz]

I'm also curious to see if MLB makes the Cardinals play those 2 games against the Tigers if they end up in a tied scenario where they are 29-29 and other teams are 30-30, or if they'll just go to the tiebreakers since the winning percentage is identical.

 

Or if they finish 30-28 and the Reds finish 31-29, if they'll treat it as a tied scenario or they give the Cards the advantage because of a single percentage point of advantage.

 

Passan mentioned that in today's article. Sounds they will only be played if those games impact who is in or out, or who has home field in the first round (which would only matter if the Padres lose out). They won't be played purely for seeding.

 

Edit: Did not see that this got mentioned already!

[Forgotmyoldlogin]

So is the Cubs’ magic number actually less than what we think it is? It seems really unlikely the Cards would be within a game of the Padres by Monday, right? Which means those two games likely won’t be played.

[bukie]

So is the Cubs’ magic number actually less than what we think it is? It seems really unlikely the Cards would be within a game of the Padres by Monday, right? Which means those two games likely won’t be played.

They'll be played if they're within 2 games of 9th place also, which is pretty likely. The difference between the 5th seed Marlins and the 10th seed Giants is 1.5 games.