2020 roster

[Sammy Sofa]

Happ is such a weird dude to try and project. While the talking point was that he was sent to AAA to 'work on his swing', I don't think we can ignore the fact that he was down there for 99 games and essentially was really bad for pretty much all of it. And then after that, it took him going nuclear the last week of the year to get his 2019 MLB numbers looking pretty again...through 9/21, he had a .224/.300/.457 slash line. Obviously you can't ignore that last week, but we're basically talking about one week's worth of incredible baseball as the difference between a lost year and someone who should be our starting center fielder next year.

 

Still a terrifyingly small sample size, but BR has him going HAM pretty much all of the last month:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=happia01&year=2019&t=b

 

Or is that mostly masking that he sucked and that last week dragged up the previous 3-ish?

[squally1313]

Happ is such a weird dude to try and project. While the talking point was that he was sent to AAA to 'work on his swing', I don't think we can ignore the fact that he was down there for 99 games and essentially was really bad for pretty much all of it. And then after that, it took him going nuclear the last week of the year to get his 2019 MLB numbers looking pretty again...through 9/21, he had a .224/.300/.457 slash line. Obviously you can't ignore that last week, but we're basically talking about one week's worth of incredible baseball as the difference between a lost year and someone who should be our starting center fielder next year.

 

Still a terrifyingly small sample size, but BR has him going HAM pretty much all of the last month:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=happia01&year=2019&t=b

 

Or is that mostly masking that he sucked and that last week dragged up the previous 3-ish?

 

To break it up even more, 9/01-9/21 was .216/.250/.405, so yes, pretty bad up until that last week.

[squally1313]

Happ is such a weird dude to try and project. While the talking point was that he was sent to AAA to 'work on his swing', I don't think we can ignore the fact that he was down there for 99 games and essentially was really bad for pretty much all of it. And then after that, it took him going nuclear the last week of the year to get his 2019 MLB numbers looking pretty again...through 9/21, he had a .224/.300/.457 slash line. Obviously you can't ignore that last week, but we're basically talking about one week's worth of incredible baseball as the difference between a lost year and someone who should be our starting center fielder next year.

 

That's a fair point, although I think it's also worth considering it an illustration of how few PA his MLB downturn was if 1 week essentially erased it. We do have ~900 PA before this year of him having an MLB quality bat(especially in CF), so I don't want us to overstate the risk. That is the risk though, Happ is a bit of a wild card, and he hasn't spent so much time in CF that we can be uber-confident in how to peg him defensively either.

 

Yeah I mean, there's two options/conversations here:

 

1. You essentially throw out last year, take his MLB PAs from 2017 and 2018, slap it on 600 PAs, and he's a roughly 2-2.5 win player in center field. Not terrible, but it means you're looking at an outfield that's going to really struggle to top like, 10 WAR total if you lock in Schwarber and Heyward next to him.

 

2. You take last year as, if not close to the norm, a step forward. He's not going to OPS .897, but whatever he worked on eventually had a positive effect, and he can put up roughly a .250/.325/.500 slash line over the full year (admittedly a little optimistic, slugging wise). You basically have Brett Gardner, who put up a .251/.325/.503 slash line with slightly positive defensive value for 3.6 WAR. Awesome. The issue with someone like Happ, even if he ends up with these types of numbers, is that he seems the type to do it in streaks, and he's the kind of player that is the first to be blamed/turned on when things aren't going well. To put myself in David Ross' head, Happ hasn't "earned" the rope to ride out a few weeks for 40% K rates. So even if you're optimistic and think he can put up 3+ WAR in a full seasons worth of PAs, does he even get that chance?

[squally1313]

What's the point of breaking down a sample size that was already just 150 and change PAs? Happ made more contact without losing power, patience, speed, or defense - personally don't really care how it was sequenced

 

Well it ignores 100 games of mediocre at best AAA ABs, for one. Two, his LD% dropped significantly from 2017 and 2018, while his hard hit contact stayed about the same. He made contact more, and more of his fly balls left the park. The first is indisputably good, the second, given everything we know about the baseballs, is not something we necessarily want to rely on. He only played 126 innings in the outfield, and only about half of those in center, so not nearly enough to say anything about his defense.

[Cubswin11]

Happ is such a weird dude to try and project. While the talking point was that he was sent to AAA to 'work on his swing', I don't think we can ignore the fact that he was down there for 99 games and essentially was really bad for pretty much all of it. And then after that, it took him going nuclear the last week of the year to get his 2019 MLB numbers looking pretty again...through 9/21, he had a .224/.300/.457 slash line. Obviously you can't ignore that last week, but we're basically talking about one week's worth of incredible baseball as the difference between a lost year and someone who should be our starting center fielder next year.

 

That's a fair point, although I think it's also worth considering it an illustration of how few PA his MLB downturn was if 1 week essentially erased it. We do have ~900 PA before this year of him having an MLB quality bat(especially in CF), so I don't want us to overstate the risk. That is the risk though, Happ is a bit of a wild card, and he hasn't spent so much time in CF that we can be uber-confident in how to peg him defensively either.

 

Yeah I mean, there's two options/conversations here:

 

1. You essentially throw out last year, take his MLB PAs from 2017 and 2018, slap it on 600 PAs, and he's a roughly 2-2.5 win player in center field. Not terrible, but it means you're looking at an outfield that's going to really struggle to top like, 10 WAR total if you lock in Schwarber and Heyward next to him.

Only 5 teams put up more than 12 WAR with their OF last year and only 6 over 11. Is that really that bad or burdening to expect ~10 WAR? Sure we’d like more but with the IF we have that probably projects in the 18 range (5-6 KB, 3-4 Javy, 2-3 Nico/Bote 2B, 3-4 Rizzo 1B, 3-4 C Willy/Vic) I think we could be competitive with a ~10 WAR OF.

[squally1313]

 

That's a fair point, although I think it's also wor

th considering it an illustration of how few PA his MLB downturn was if 1 week essentially erased it. We do have ~900 PA before this year of him having an MLB quality bat(especially in CF), so I don't want us to overstate the risk. That is the risk though, Happ is a bit of a wild card, and he hasn't spent so much time in CF that we can be uber-confident in how to peg him defensively either.

 

Yeah I mean, there's two options/conversations here:

 

1. You essentially throw out last year, take his MLB PAs from 2017 and 2018, slap it on 600 PAs, and he's a roughly 2-2.5 win player in center field. Not terrible, but it means you're looking at an outfield that's going to really struggle to top like, 10 WAR total if you lock in Schwarber and Heyward next to him.

Only 5 teams put up more than 12 WAR with their OF last year and only 6 over 11. Is that really that bad or burdening to expect ~10 WAR? Sure we’d like more but with the IF we have, probably projects in the 18 range (5-6 KB, 3-4 Javy, 2-3 Nico/Bote 2B, 3-4 Rizzo 1B, 3-4 C Willy/Vic) I think we could be competitive with a ~10 WAR OF.

 

I'm seeing different on FG, but I think their allocations are messed up when it comes to team production by position. No real problem with your infield numbers, and 28 oWAR would put us 6th in baseball for 2019, so all good. However, and I know I'm kinda changing the argument here, if you lock in a 2-2.5 WAR full time Ian Happ, you aren't getting to 10 wins with Heyward and Schwarber picking up the majority of the remaining PAs. KB might help push some value to the OF in total, but there's no way you can rely on those two for 7-8 wins...I think the over/under is about 5.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Basically I don't think Happ being good is 100% certain but I do think there's so much more to be optimistic about than down over

 

 

I agree with this overall, but I'm not sure I love him in CF. We just don't know enough of his ability to play it to give him a full time seat there imo. I'd rather he was our 2b with Nico in the wings.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I agree with this overall, but I'm not sure I love him in CF. We just don't know enough of his ability to play it to give him a full time seat there imo. I'd rather he was our 2b with Nico in the wings.

 

Happ ML games in CF: 130

Happ ML games at 2B: 59

 

Pro CF: 254

Pro 2B: 187

 

Just go get a glove first backup for him and the other two

 

 

what I mean is his ability to field it at a higher level then, say, Heyward. If Heywards glove is better, then why not play him at CF and look for a solid RF'er? Is it true that a defense of Schwarber/Happ/Heyward is better then a Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos OF? And when you factor their bats, is Happ an upgrade over Castellanos?

[squally1313]

Well it ignores 100 games of mediocre at best AAA ABs, for one. Two, his LD% dropped significantly from 2017 and 2018, while his hard hit contact stayed about the same. He made contact more, and more of his fly balls left the park. The first is indisputably good, the second, given everything we know about the baseballs, is not something we necessarily want to rely on. He only played 126 innings in the outfield, and only about half of those in center, so not nearly enough to say anything about his defense.

 

The 100 mediocre AAA games came after two not unproductive ML seasons at 22 and 23 though so it's hard to put tons of value in that too. Not sure there's much of a relationship in year to year LD%, but that he kept hitting the ball hard is good stuff. Also also is a guy with 39 HRs the past two seasons who also hits the ball hard, far, and in the air really relying on the ball for power? He's surprisingly played more games in CF than any other position as a pro....Basically I don't think Happ being good is 100% certain but I do think there's so much more to be optimistic about than down over

 

The two non unproductive MLB seasons, the second one worse than the first, basically get you a low 2 WAR player. He essentially went in the wrong direction for 1.9 years, and then went nuts for 8 games. They still count, but that’s really the only evidence we have that hes more than a 2.5 win player. Which has value, sure, butnext to the other two it starts to look a bit bland.

[minnesotacubsfan]

............ bland.

 

I can't help to read this as

 

[squally1313]

I think the team needs more than an "easy to see a 2.5 win player". If there was any reasonable hope of expecting more than 3-3.5 wins out of each corner outfielder, then you slot Happ in there, take your 2-2.5, and hope he turns a corner. Basically it's just frustrating that you have three outfielders that would all make amazing third outfielders, and definitely serviceable second outfielders. Counting on Happ to be anything more than that is relying a hell of a lot on 8 games.

[Cubswin11]

He makes a lot of sense for us, imo. Guessing he’d take Nico plus other stuff.

 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Brian]

pass (at the cost being Nico)

[squally1313]

I think the team needs more than an "easy to see a 2.5 win player". If there was any reasonable hope of expecting more than 3-3.5 wins out of each corner outfielder, then you slot Happ in there, take your 2-2.5, and hope he turns a corner. Basically it's just frustrating that you have three outfielders that would all make amazing third outfielders, and definitely serviceable second outfielders. Counting on Happ to be anything more than that is relying a hell of a lot on 8 games.

 

Bold: Agreed! Not sure how employing one, one with a wide enough set of demonstrated tools and skills that he could easily pass that floor in his prime, at a bare minimum salary at a position of need actually gets in the way of getting one

 

Not bold: Still not a thing!

 

No one is talking about cutting Ian Happ. The discussion, at least the one I thought I was part of, is whether we need to bring in an outfielder to be a starter, and let Happ be the new Zobrist, or whether we should roll with Schwarber/Happ/Heyward for 130 games. He's cheap and definitely brings value.

 

2.5 wins is absolutely not his floor. His floor is what he did for 100 games in AAA just this past year, but then against major league pitching. I get that it's a bad faith argument to selectively cut out 9/22-9/30, because that definitely counts. But on September 20th, we were looking at a guy who went from 1.9 WAR to 1.5 WAR to being a below average AAA hitter and then putting up a .217/.295/.426 slash line in the majors. There is nothing in there that comes close to 'major league starter'.

[Cubswin11]

pass (at the cost being Nico)

I’d lean that way too. Something like Happ + any 2-3 not Davis, Amaya or Marquez prospects I’d probably do though. Or include Bote too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We have multiple players I expect to be better second basemen than Merrifield in 2020, I'm willing to look bad for this take just please don't trade for him under any circumstances

[Cubswin11]

We have multiple players I expect to be better second basemen than Merrifield in 2020, I'm willing to look bad for this take just please don't trade for him under any circumstances

He could play CF. He’s the exact type of bat this offense needs, him and Nico on the roster would really help with the contact issues and help supplement things. I’d consider using Amaya in a trade for him, honestly. Happ or Bote, Amaya and some other stuff like Short, Abbott, etc I think I’d do.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We have multiple players I expect to be better second basemen than Merrifield in 2020, I'm willing to look bad for this take just please don't trade for him under any circumstances

He could play CF. He’s the exact type of bat this offense needs, him and Nico on the roster would really help with the contact issues and help supplement things. I’d consider using Amaya in a trade for him, honestly. Happ or Bote, Amaya and some other stuff like Short, Abbott, etc I think I’d do.

 

I have zero confidence he's going to keep the BABIP train going. I know there's logical reasons to think otherwise, but I'm fairly convinced he's on the Scooter Gennett path.

[Cubswin11]

He could play CF.

 

Merrifield's played 47 ML games in CF, 134 as a pro, and will be 31 next year

~370 innings there at +3 DRS, UZR liked him in 2018 but not 2019. He hasn’t rated out well in RF (-7) but rates out well in LF (+7). I don’t think he’d be a liability out there, especially if we shift more and then just sign a glove first CF like Billy Hamilton for late innings. He also could push Nico to CF if you don’t want Whit out there.

[Clem Fandango]

What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?

[Cubswin11]

~370 innings there at +3 DRS, UZR liked him in 2018 but not 2019. He hasn’t rated out well in RF (-7) but rates out well in LF (+7).

 

These numbers make you optimistic about trading for a 31 YO 2B to become the starting CF of the Cubs? I hate the Cubs too but they should at least win at baseball while I hate them

I’m not acting like he’d be an elite fielder out there but I think he’d be plenty adequate.

[Cubswin11]

What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?

Elite contact ability (which is an area we lack), good athleticism/speed, and ability to play multiple positions, MIF and probably the OF. I don’t think he’s ever gonna be a star (he’s probably a 2-3 win player on average with maybe a peak year in the 4s) but I think he can be a solid player who can move around and diversify the offense a bit. At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.

[Brian]

Fine with trading Nico in the right circumstance, Whit Merrifield is so far from that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?

 

If you need a reason to believe, he is a college bat that this front office drafted in the first round even when that wasn't his consensus value.

[squally1313]

What do people see in Nico Hoerner that I don't?

 

If you need a reason to believe, he is a college bat that this front office drafted in the first round even when that wasn't his consensus value.

 

Not sure if this is supposed to be sarcastic.