Chicago Bears offseason

[squally1313]

And we were already pretty good at it...

 

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[Bertz]

Football Outsiders released their 2019 almanac today. Still digging through, but some interesting nuggets so far:

 

- The Bears project as the 16th best team in the NFL, with 7.9 wins. 18th on Offense, 4th on defense, 28th on ST, and the 5th hardest schedule

- The Packers project to win the division, but not run away with it. They're pegged at #10 wand with 8.6 wins. That's a tiny gap, win Week 1 and you've pretty much erased it

- Trubisky improved much more from year 1 to year 2 than a typical QB. Optimistically, you could attribute that to his lack of starting experience in college and expect another above average jump from year 2 to 3, BUT there's not a lot of objective evidence to back that up

- A few more Mitch nuggets: he was great under pressure last year; but he kind of sucked with a clean pocket. Unfortunately the latter is usually more predictive than the former

- The Bears sucked on Play Action, one of only a few teams to be worse with PA than without

- The Bears ran the ball 43% of the time in the first half last year. For two points of comparison the 2017 Bears were at 46% rate in 2017 while last year's Chiefs were 32%. Spending so many plays getting the running game going meant less opportunities to pass

- The Bears were one of 4 teams to run the ball against an 8 man box less than 10% of the time, which makes the team's poor running numbers that much worse

[Brian]

That's my head coach.

 

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[UMFan83]

- Trubisky improved much more from year 1 to year 2 than a typical QB. Optimistically, you could attribute that to his lack of starting experience in college and expect another above average jump from year 2 to 3, BUT there's not a lot of objective evidence to back that up

- A few more Mitch nuggets: he was great under pressure last year; but he kind of sucked with a clean pocket. Unfortunately the latter is usually more predictive than the former

 

This is pretty much exactly what was concluded on that video breakdown of Trubisky posted the other day. Worth a watch

 

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[Derwood]

Another site had the Bears schedule as the #1 hardest. Not sure what metrics were different

[WrigleyField 22]

Another site had the Bears schedule as the #1 hardest. Not sure what metrics were different

538 had a good article last season, that prior year expected W-L (which is basically just a metric of point differential) was a better predictor of SoS than the traditional metric of prior year W-L.

 

Last season it worked out that their adjusted SoS was much easier than the traditional metric. Wouldn't be surprised if it's the opposite this season.

 

Edit--I was wrong. The expected W-L metric isn't kind to any of the 1st place teams the Bears have to play. The Bears on the other hand are treated fairly well by expected W-L (12 wins vs 11. 5 expected). But if you look at DAL, KC, NO, and both LA's they lose about 1.7 W on average. Bears SoS would be right around middle of pack at. 507

 

Be curious as to the metric you came across.

[WrigleyField 22]

Going more down the rabbit hole, Bears actually had the best expected W-L in the whole NFL last year at 11.5. But if you reseeded the playoffs on eW-L there would be only one change to the 12 PO teams (replace DAL with MIN). Many more changes to seeding and byes though.

 

Long story short, Bears are winning Super Bowl LIV

[jersey cubs fan]

- Trubisky improved much more from year 1 to year 2 than a typical QB. Optimistically, you could attribute that to his lack of starting experience in college and expect another above average jump from year 2 to 3, BUT there's not a lot of objective evidence to back that up

- A few more Mitch nuggets: he was great under pressure last year; but he kind of sucked with a clean pocket. Unfortunately the latter is usually more predictive than the former

 

This is pretty much exactly what was concluded on that video breakdown of Trubisky posted the other day. Worth a watch

 

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That video kind of summarizes my thoughts on Mitch.

 

I have no faith in him but a lot of hope.

[Chocolate Milk]

- Trubisky improved much more from year 1 to year 2 than a typical QB. Optimistically, you could attribute that to his lack of starting experience in college and expect another above average jump from year 2 to 3, BUT there's not a lot of objective evidence to back that up

- A few more Mitch nuggets: he was great under pressure last year; but he kind of sucked with a clean pocket. Unfortunately the latter is usually more predictive than the former

 

This is pretty much exactly what was concluded on that video breakdown of Trubisky posted the other day. Worth a watch

 

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That video kind of summarizes my thoughts on Mitch.

 

I have no faith in him but a lot of hope.

Agree with you. He's a baffling player. Who is better under pressure than they are with a clean pocket? I wonder how much of this is all the newness around him (receivers, scheme, etc). Kollman basically said he's best when he just lets it rip with confidence. My hope is that given this guy is by all accounts a very hard worker - as he gains confidence/comfort with his receivers and the system he'll do less thinking and more just playing. He couldn't do anything in that playoff game but when all the pressure was on him and he needed to put a perfect ball on Robinson to put them in position to win, he makes the throw of his life. Yet he's standing in a completely clean pocket in Miami and airmails a wide open Miller by 10 yards. Later that game he hits him in stride to put them ahead by a score with 3 minutes left. Just a baffling player, as I said.

 

I'm really hoping that early in the season we'll see that he made a clear next step, otherwise, it's going to be a stressful season.

[David]

 

This is pretty much exactly what was concluded on that video breakdown of Trubisky posted the other day. Worth a watch

 

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That video kind of summarizes my thoughts on Mitch.

 

I have no faith in him but a lot of hope.

Agree with you. He's a baffling player. Who is better under pressure than they are with a clean pocket? I wonder how much of this is all the newness around him (receivers, scheme, etc). Kollman basically said he's best when he just lets it rip with confidence. My hope is that given this guy is by all accounts a very hard worker - as he gains confidence/comfort with his receivers and the system he'll do less thinking and more just playing. He couldn't do anything in that playoff game but when all the pressure was on him and he needed to put a perfect ball on Robinson to put them in position to win, he makes the throw of his life. Yet he's standing in a completely clean pocket in Miami and airmails a wide open Miller by 10 yards. Later that game he hits him in stride to put them ahead by a score with 3 minutes left. Just a baffling player, as I said.

 

I'm really hoping that early in the season we'll see that he made a clear next step, otherwise, it's going to be a stressful season.

 

 

This is pretty logical to me and I think it's exactly what it is. Clean pocket situations - he's in a brand new offense with brand new players and he's still learning. He should be much more sure of what's going on now, after a full season and a real full off-season with the offense. On the other hand, when horsefeathers breaks down and he's under pressure he is forced to freelance, he just lets his talent take over and lets it rip.

[raw]

That video kind of summarizes my thoughts on Mitch.

 

I have no faith in him but a lot of hope.

Agree with you. He's a baffling player. Who is better under pressure than they are with a clean pocket? I wonder how much of this is all the newness around him (receivers, scheme, etc). Kollman basically said he's best when he just lets it rip with confidence. My hope is that given this guy is by all accounts a very hard worker - as he gains confidence/comfort with his receivers and the system he'll do less thinking and more just playing. He couldn't do anything in that playoff game but when all the pressure was on him and he needed to put a perfect ball on Robinson to put them in position to win, he makes the throw of his life. Yet he's standing in a completely clean pocket in Miami and airmails a wide open Miller by 10 yards. Later that game he hits him in stride to put them ahead by a score with 3 minutes left. Just a baffling player, as I said.

 

I'm really hoping that early in the season we'll see that he made a clear next step, otherwise, it's going to be a stressful season.

 

 

This is pretty logical to me and I think it's exactly what it is. Clean pocket situations - he's in a brand new offense with brand new players and he's still learning. He should be much more sure of what's going on now, after a full season and a real full off-season with the offense. On the other hand, when horsefeathers breaks down and he's under pressure he is forced to freelance, he just lets his talent take over and lets it rip.

 

Seems to be a classic case of a guy overthinking things, and the less he has to think about, the better he does. One thing I thought showed in the video is that he didn't make a ton of bad reads (though looks like some of them were simplified for him, with a clear 1st or 2nd read schemed open). As stated, his mistakes come when he has a clean pocket and for whatever reason simply doesn't trust his primary read. Also, seemed like Nagy really didn't open up the playbook at all, as a lot of those plays highlighted were the same play/concept over and over. That makes me skeptical on Mitch's intelligence (combined w/ not being able to execute the same exact play consistently vs. the same coverage).

 

But I have hope that as he learns the offense more, he'll become more confident and just do his job, while not losing the ability to improvise when things break down. This will be the first year he'll have the same offense since college. We should see improvement, or at the least better consistency.

[Chocolate Milk]

Packers cut Mike Daniels.

[Brian]

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[Brian]

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That is quite a nice throw

[Brian]

one kicker finished their first round with a 60 yarder and the other with a 63 yarder. I've kind of purposely not paid too much attention to the kicker stuff, and I was assuming they both didn't have that in them. Makes me feel a little better about the kicker situation.

[David]

one kicker finished their first round with a 60 yarder and the other with a 63 yarder. I've kind of purposely not paid too much attention to the kicker stuff, and I was assuming they both didn't have that in them. Makes me feel a little better about the kicker situation.

 

i know pineiro, in particular, was supposed to have a very strong leg

 

sidenote: patrick scales hasn't been around to long snap the last couple days. :-k

Edited July 29, 2019 by David

[raw]

one kicker finished their first round with a 60 yarder and the other with a 63 yarder. I've kind of purposely not paid too much attention to the kicker stuff, and I was assuming they both didn't have that in them. Makes me feel a little better about the kicker situation.

 

i know pineiro, in particulary, was supposed to have a very strong leg

 

sidenote: patrick scales hasn't been around to long snap the last couple days. :-k

 

If Scales comes back and the kicking starts failing, I'd cut him immediately. The Bears special teams was so bad last year, I would have done a full overhaul this offseason. New kicker was obvious, but I'd also gone out and found a new punter, long snapper, they already have to replace Bellamy, I'd probably make McManis a long-shot to make the roster. P and LS were free agents, had easy outs. Give me fresh blood at this point.

[David]

Steve Smith and Riley Ridley

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/video/rookie-spotlight-nfl-networks-steve-smith-sr-gives-chicago-bears-rookie-wide-receiver-riley-ridley-route-running-advice/vi-AAF2q0y

[Brian]

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[Brian]

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Mitch please don't try to tackle Mack.

[WrigleyField 22]

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Really feeling like he's gonna bust. Unpolished product who can't stick on the field isn't a good combo.

[David]

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Really feeling like he's gonna bust. Unpolished product who can't stick on the field isn't a good combo.

 

Nagy said after practice that Shaheen did what they were expecting him to do yesterday (in other words, his limited participation wasn't a re-injury or aggravation of his soreness or whatever).

 

 

 

 

Also, Ridley appears to be on the way back (or all the way back?)

[minnesotacubsfan]

Was Ridley hurt?

[David]

Was Ridley hurt?

Yes. Still limited.

 

Think it was a hamstring.