Highest Upside Cubs Prospects

[CubsWin]

With many of the Cubs better prospects being under 20 and in the lower levels, this will undoubtedly be a highly subjective discussion, but it's not like we've got a lot of other things to discuss right now, so...

 

Which of the Cubs prospects has the highest ceiling in your estimation?

 

Is it a guy who hasn't thrown a single professional inning - Richard Gallardo? Is it a kid who's just scratched the surface in the AZL - Cole Roederer? Or do you think the more athletic and toolsy Brennen Davis has the higher ceiling? Does Amaya have the upside of a 1st division starter or possibly an all-star? If Brailyn Marquez hits his ceiling will he be a TOR starter?

 

Remember, we're not talking likelihood of reaching their ceiling, just the ceiling itself.

 

So, who ya got?

[Cubswin11]

I don't have a deep knowledge of the system but know the guys who are already known or on radars so with that I'd go.... For pitcher I'd say Marquez. A lefty that is hitting triple digits and shown an ability to start so far and seems to have good command at only 19, that's pretty rare. The upside is huge, however unlikely, and I'd gladly take him being just a really good relief pitcher down the road. Position player I'd say Davis since there seems to be so many raw tools there, almost went Roederer and overall I'd say I am higher on him at least getting to the majors and being useful but Davis probably beats him out for upside.

[JeffH]

Brendon Little.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Off the top of my head, Roederer and Hoerner on the offensive side, Marquez, Estrada, and Little on the pitching side.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Raw ceiling? Marquez on the pitching side, then Riley Thompson and Estrada.

 

Sierra, Davis, Roederer and Velazquez on the offensive side.

[CubsWin]

Due to the recent influx of upside talent into the Cubs organization, I thought it was time to resurrect this thread.

 

It's been over two years since we last discussed which Cubs prospect had the highest upside. Some of the names discussed back then have fallen off, but two have distinguished themselves. Brennen Davis and Brailyn Marquez may still head this list, but the Cubs depth of teenage talent is so deep, I thought it might be fun to get your thoughts on two questions. Who do you think has the highest pure upside, and who do you think will realize the highest upside (or wind up being the best player)? Let's divvy it up into 2 categories, over 20 years old and 20 and under. Here are my nominees for discussion. Feel free to add your own.

 

Over 20:

 

OF Brennen Davis (21)

LHP Brailyn Marquez (22)

C Miguel Amaya (22)

RHP Kohl Franklin (21)

3B Chris Morel (21)

RHP Ryan Jensen (23)

RHP Riley Thompson (24)

OF Jordon Nwogu (23)

OF Cole Roederer (21)

RHP Chris Clarke (22)

 

20 and under:

 

SS Christian Hernandez (17)

SS Ed Howard (19)

INF Reginald Preciado (17)

OF Ismael Mena (18)

RHP Richard Gallardo (19)

SS Kevin Made (18)

INF Yeison Santana (20)

OF Yohendrick Pinango (18)

LHP DJ Herz (20)

C Ronnier Quintero (18)

OF Owen Caissie (18)

C Ethan Hearn (20)

C Moises Ballesteros (17)

INF Rafael Morel (19)

RHP Koen Moreno (19)

LHP Luke Little (20)

[JeffH]

Over 20:

Highest upside - Marquez

Best player - Jensen

 

20 and under:

Highest upside - Caissie

Best player - Howard

[UK]

I'd include Herz in that group.

[UK]

I knew I forgot someone...yeah I like Herz as a potential impact arm, even if not in the rotation, and left 2021 with a better shot to start than he came in

 

His arm action might lead him to the pen but his stuff might translate to a lefty version of Matt Clement.

 

There's probably only a handful of starters over the last 20 years who had over 20 starts and struck out 3x more batters than hits allowed.

[Tim]

Alright, Tom. Convince me on what tool Gallardo has that makes him super-upside. To me, he's the pitching version of your opinion of Pinango. He's someone that has ARL on his side, some good characteristics to his performance, but seems to lack the high-end toolset that would make everyone really excited about them.

[Tim]

Alright, Tom. Convince me on what tool Gallardo has that makes him super-upside. To me, he's the pitching version of your opinion of Pinango. He's someone that has ARL on his side, some good characteristics to his performance, but seems to lack the high-end toolset that would make everyone really excited about them.

 

A single aspect? Potential for elite command, I'd say off his season

 

I don't have like a presentation but age and pitchers have a very interesting enough relationship from what other people have said and done over the years (lol?). It's not the most important thing to have that ARL advantage but if and when a player does, and again ARL in the context of beating the level, probably follow that guy. It's not like a perfect comparison but he's basically a top or at least good recruit college who took over as the Friday starter by the end of his freshman season after working in the rotation all year

 

I'm also a little less quick to hand out the ARL card to Pinango. I've always said ARL is most important when you're better than the level, and sure the Cubs promoted Pinango but he left the level with like a 90 wRC+ and a near 2 GO/AO.

What is it in his 8% walk rate that points you to elite command?

 

Also, Gallardo had a 4.65 FIP, so by your own logic he shouldn't get credit for ARL.

[Tim]

What is it in his 8% walk rate that points you to elite command?

 

Also, Gallardo had a 4.65 FIP, so by your own logic he shouldn't get credit for ARL.

 

Command's more than walk rate but the league BB% was 11%. He also generates tons of groundballs (56%!) and pop ups on batted balls. The pop ups give me alot of confidence that the biggest hole in his season - the missing Ks - are temporary since value wise pop ups and Ks are more or less the same

 

Pass on A ball FIP for future run prevention skills, he was league average:

 

Low A East ERA, RA9, FIP: 4.62 / 5.47

Gallardo: 4.53 / 5.42

 

Low A East OPS: .721

Pinango: .690

 

Probably also in his favor is stacking the ARL seasons. Remember he was one of the handful youngest arms to spend the entire Rk season stateside in a very high offense league in 2019, was better than league average with alot of the same skills (GBs, pop ups, strikes) there

How come you keep ignoring Pinango at A+?

[Tim]

Also, I'm not trying to portray Pinango as a high-upside guy at this point. I'm just using him as an example of your own logic of ARL not meaning everything on its own.

 

I look at Gallardo and I don't see great velocity, I haven't heard of any of his pitches being plus, his control/command is good but not elite, etc. He looks like a really good bet to be a mid-rotation starter. But I can't see ace potential in him, which is what this thread seems to be about.

 

I think there are some lower probability guys that have higher upside. For example, there are guys like Palencia or Marquez with their velocity. While I'd put Gallardo up near the top of our pitching prospects due to his probability of being *something*, I'm not sure he is even near the top five in terms of pure upside.

[CubinNY]

Is errors a good way to judge a 17 year old playing SS? We don't even know the field conditions. It isn't like these are even minor league quality ball fields.

[Cubswin11]

Over 20:

Highest upside - Marquez

Best player - Jensen

 

20 and under:

Highest upside - Caissie

Best player - Howard

To get this back on track

 

Over 20:

Highest upside - Davis

Best player - Davis

 

(I’m all in)

 

20 and under:

Highest upside - Hernandez or Alcantara

Best player - Caissie