10/2/18 NL WILD CARD Rockies (Freeland) @ CLERBS (Lester) 7:00 CST ESPN

[imb]

Ah yes, all of the clear red flags and warning signs that the Cubs and all other teams willfully ignored that you and no one else noticed until he ended up being terrible, after the fact. I’d think it was a failure too if I believed that this FO and others saw serious, fatal flaws in a top FA and lined up to give him $180m+ with opt outs.

 

I never said you can ignore all of the bad signings. Chatwood was a bad signing. Duensing was a bad signing. There are a lot of factors that go into evaluating a FO’s moves. Saying “wow that sucked and seems obvious now I can’t believe no one on Earth predicted that” or “lolz the Cubs signed him because he hit a big homer against us” is silly.

 

dunno what to tell you man. the shoulder injury was well known and even in his cardinals season he didnt hit for any power. they obviously signed him because he was still young, had a pretty high floor given his defensive capabilities as long as he could be a slightly better than league average signing and they just went out and broke him.

I don’t know what you should tell me either, but “I couldn’t predict it and neither could anyone else but this FO should have” isn’t it.

 

They should have. Kinda their whole job.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

2013 NL team OPS - .703

2014 NL team OPS - .694

2015 NL team OPS - .713

 

2016 NL team OPS - .734

2017 NL team OPS - .748

2017 NL team OPS - .721

 

Offense went up (the ball/launch angle revolution) but Heyward stayed the same, keeping his OPS in the same range it was post shoulder injury (outside of the 2016 season when he was completely mentally broken) but dragging down stats like OPS+ or wrc+

I didn't post OPS plus. I posted OPS.

So yes, league-wide OPS whet up while Heyward's OPS WENT DOWN. Your hand waving jedi mind trick "mentally broken" quip as a way to dismiss his worst offensive season is ludicrous. It doesn't change the fact that he was a horrific hitter. His next two seasons were better, but still only on par or worse than his previous worst performance. He is clearly, without question, a worse hitter with the Cubs than he was previous. The other version of you that claims the Cubs broke him agrees with me.

[imb]

take away the two big post-injury outlier OPS (2015 and 2016) and you have this

 

.776

.735

.715

.731

 

That's the same player

[Cubswin11]

I don’t ever remember hearing about a shoulder injury with Heyward or it being a well known thing when he was a FA or that people thought it was a long term thing to worry about. The only injuries I remember him having were getting hit in the wrist and face.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

take away the two big post-injury outlier OPS (2015 and 2016) and you have this

 

.776

.735

.715

.731

 

That's the same player

Yes, take away 1/3rd of your data to suit your narrative and squint he is the same player. It is as if someone here has a conclusion they want to reach.

[imb]

I don’t ever remember hearing about a shoulder injury with Heyward or it being a well known thing when he was a FA or that people thought it was a long term thing to worry about. The only injuries I remember him having were getting hit in the wrist and face.

 

2011 he had some shoulder thing and kept trying to play through it. Finally gave up and said he'd come back when he was 100 percent. Chipper Jones called him a baby so he came back and struggled all year. Bounced back the next year even though the swing was changed and then the next year the head shot happened.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I mean, if he IS the same player he always was, what exactly is the office to blame for? Great signing! Let's throw a parade!!! Edited October 4, 2018 by JudasIscariotTheBird

[imb]

take away the two big post-injury outlier OPS (2015 and 2016) and you have this

 

.776

.735

.715

.731

 

That's the same player

Yes, take away 1/3rd of your data to suit your narrative and squint he is the same player. It is as if someone here has a conclusion they want to reach.

 

Even including his good offensive year (.797 OPS in 2015 w/STL) it's still only 60 points off what he did this year.) If you want to pretend his 2016 season when he hit like neifi perez all year has any bearing, be my guest, but everyone involved agrees he was a wreck at the plate all year and starting in 2017 he basically ditched everything he had tried that year and started over.

[Cubswin11]

I don’t ever remember hearing about a shoulder injury with Heyward or it being a well known thing when he was a FA or that people thought it was a long term thing to worry about. The only injuries I remember him having were getting hit in the wrist and face.

 

2011 he had some shoulder thing and kept trying to play through it. Finally gave up and said he'd come back when he was 100 percent. Chipper Jones called him a baby so he came back and struggled all year. Bounced back the next year even though the swing was changed and then the next year the head shot happened.

Got it. I still don’t remember anyone bringing it up (on here or in the media) during his FA year that it was a concern long term or changed him but yeah. I just mostly remember the concern was “his swing needs a lot of maintenance” or something like that.

Edited October 4, 2018 by Cubswin11

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

take away the two big post-injury outlier OPS (2015 and 2016) and you have this

 

.776

.735

.715

.731

 

That's the same player

Yes, take away 1/3rd of your data to suit your narrative and squint he is the same player. It is as if someone here has a conclusion they want to reach.

 

Even including his good offensive year (.797 OPS in 2015 w/STL) it's still only 60 points off what he did this year.) If you want to pretend his 2016 season when he hit like neifi perez all year has any bearing, be my guest, but everyone involved agrees he was a wreck at the plate all year and starting in 2017 he basically ditched everything he had tried that year and started over.

I'm not going to argue with you anymore. It's moronic. You just pointed out his apparently injury-riddled 2015 season was 60 OPS points higher than his best season with the Cubs as if that's an argument for how good he has been...

[imb]

I mean, if he IS the same player he always was, what exactly is the office to blame for? Great signing! Let's throw a parade!!!

 

this is a real fun experiment because you're always saying things that don't help your cause and arguing two steps behind.

 

He IS the same hitter he was post injuries. Only now his defense (where he got a lot of his value) is slipping due to age and the rest of the league has evolved at the plate, leaving him behind.

 

a .735 ops in 2014 went a lot further (109 ops+) then than it does now (.731 ops this year was a 92 ops+)

[imb]

I don’t ever remember hearing about a shoulder injury with Heyward or it being a well known thing when he was a FA or that people thought it was a long term thing to worry about. The only injuries I remember him having were getting hit in the wrist and face.

 

2011 he had some shoulder thing and kept trying to play through it. Finally gave up and said he'd come back when he was 100 percent. Chipper Jones called him a baby so he came back and struggled all year. Bounced back the next year even though the swing was changed and then the next year the head shot happened.

Got it. I still don’t remember anyone bringing it up (on here or in the media) during his FA year it was a concern but yeah. I just mostly remember the concern was “his swing needs a lot of maintenance” or something like that.

 

we were all pretty happy because he'd been worth almost 6 war. If I remember right we all kind of thought that something in his swing must be fixed because he hit .293, so the idea was the cubs were going to add some loft to it to get him to more power, and then we'd have a .290 hitting elite defense RF with a .850 OPS

[ConstableRabbit]

I don’t ever remember hearing about a shoulder injury with Heyward or it being a well known thing when he was a FA or that people thought it was a long term thing to worry about. The only injuries I remember him having were getting hit in the wrist and face.

 

2011 he had some shoulder thing and kept trying to play through it. Finally gave up and said he'd come back when he was 100 percent. Chipper Jones called him a baby so he came back and struggled all year. Bounced back the next year even though the swing was changed and then the next year the head shot happened.

Yeah that’s true. It was pretty sad to see the top defensive OF in MLB hurt his shoulder and change his swing at age 21 only to have his production hover around replacement level for the next 4 seasons until the Cubs FO threw $180m his way.