Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-9-18

[craig]

Yeah, obviously odds aren't good for anybody in the 63-98 range. And certainly the Cubs have scads of people who have done research on past outcomes, so they ought to have a more informed take on how variably bad the relatively bad odds are.

 

I thought they'd said in past that odds were higher for finding a pitcher in rounds 2-4 than a hitter, but I may not have understood or remembered correctly.

 

Probably sounds dumb, but one of the reasons I'm interested in drafting pitcher is because you don't need to be 3-plus-pitches-with-control-and-command to end up being valuable. A command pitcher with 3 plus pitches is rare and is really good. But the Cubs have 14 pitchers and use all 14 plenty; you don't need to be a high-end starter to be useful and to have an opportunity to contribute. Plus for position guys, you need to be really good to get a chance to start, and even then you might be blocked. But a pitcher is never blocked.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I got back to about 2011 last night and I found like 3 players with even 3 career bWAR between 65 and 100. You're fighting an extreme uphill battle so you might as well trust your scouting muscle rather than faint historical trends.

[craig]

3 players as in position players, or including pitchers too?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 players as in position players, or including pitchers too?

 

Regardless of position. IIRC the only decent player was Alex Wood.