2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

[bukie]

Something oddly satisfying about hearing Auburn getting beat down. Can't put my finger on it, specifically...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Something oddly satisfying about hearing Auburn getting beat down. Can't put my finger on it, specifically...

 

That something also almost got in a fist fight with Bama's strength coach after the game.

 

[tweet]

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[bukie]

Next 12:

13. Gonzaga (WCC)

14. West Virginia

15. Tennessee

16. Ohio State

17. Wichita State

18. Clemson

19. Florida

20. Houston

21. Nevada

22. Kentucky

23. TCU

24. Butler

 

Bottom 12 Auto bids:

58. Charleston (CAA)

57. Bucknell (Patriot)

56. UNC Greensboro (Southern)

55. Big Sky (Montana)

54. MAC (Buffalo)

53. South Dakota State (Summit)

52. CUSA (Old Dominion)

51. America East (Vermont)

50. Sun Belt (Louisiana)

49. Murray State (OVC)

48. WAC (New Mexico State)

47. Loyola Chicago (MVC)

 

Top 12 in consideration:

St Bonaventure

Alabama 

Providence

Virginia Tech

Louisville

USC

UCLA

St. Mary's

Kansas State

NC State

Middle Tennessee

New Mexico State

 

Bottom 20 in consideration:

Boise State

Notre Dame

Nebraska

Marquette

Utah

Temple

Oregon

Mississippi State

BYU 

Rider

Washington

Maryland

UCF

Georgia

Penn State

Colorado

South Carolina

Stanford

LSU

Boston College

[bukie]

In bid theft news, Nevada is trailing by 30 at the half in the MWC semis.

 

Arizona is down 4 at the half to UCLA.

[bukie]

Current S-Curve (42 teams)

1. Virginia

2. Villanova

3. Duke

4. Kansas

5. Xavier

6. Purdue

7. North Carolina

8. Cincinnati

9. Michigan State

10. Auburn

11. Michigan

12. Texas Tech

13. Tennessee

14. Gonzaga (WCC)

15. West Virginia

16. Wichita State

17. Clemson

18. Ohio State

19. Kentucky

20. Florida

...

47. Loyola Chicago (MVC)

48. WAC (New Mexico State)

49. CUSA (Western Kentucky)

50. Murray State (OVC)

51. South Dakota State (Summit)

52. America East (Vermont)

53. MAC (Buffalo)

54. UNC Greensboro (Southern)

55. Sun Belt (Louisiana)

56. Charleston (CAA)

57. Big Sky (Montana)

58. Bucknell (Patriot)

59. Big West (UC Davis)

60. Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun)

61. Wright State (Horizon)

62. Ivy (Penn)

63. Iona (MAAC)

64. Southland (Stephen F Austin)

65. Radford (Big South)

66. LIU-Brooklyn (NEC)

67. SWAC (Texas Southern)

68. MEAC (Hampton)

 

Also currently in the field (24):

Alabama

Arizona

Arizona State

Arkansas

Butler

Creighton

Florida State

Kansas State

Houston

Louisville

Miami FL

Missouri

NC State

Nevada

Oklahoma

Providence

Seton Hall

Rhode Island

St Bonaventure

Texas

TCU

Texas A&M

UCLA

USC

Virginia Tech

 

Still in discussion for at most 2 bids (8 teams):

Baylor 

Marquette 

Middle Tennessee 

New Mexico State 

Notre Dame 

Oklahoma State 

St Mary's

Syracuse 

Edited March 10, 2018 by bukie

[bukie]

Now it's getting manageable.

 

- Rank the 24 teams we have in the field

- Rank the 8 teams up for potential consideration barring bid theft

[bukie]

Just realized Bethune-Cookman lost in the MEAC quarters, but it doesn't really matter as the winner of that conference is the bottom of the barrel as is.

[bukie]

There is now one more auto bid we need to seed, in the MWC, it'll be either San Diego State or New Mexico.

 

That also means there is one less at-large bid to seed, so the 8 remaining teams in consideration now get at most one bid.

[bukie]

West Virginia beat Texas Tech, which tempts me to swap them on the S-Curve.

 

In terms of other potential bid thieves, Memphis could still win the American, and St. Joe's/Davidson could still win the A-10.

[bukie]

Duke and Xavier also lost in their respective conference semis, and UNC's win could prompt them to be bumped up some.

[bukie]

UC Davis lost in the Big West semis, so that auto bid will now go to the Cal State Fullerton/UC Irvine winner.

[UK]

I have a hard time believing that the Bonnies aren't a lock to get in.

[bukie]

My hot take alert for St. Bonaventure is I like their at-large profile better than Rhode Island, personally.

[bukie]

The teams I don't like are Oklahoma and Arizona State. Both have a good result profile but both have been nothing near tournament teams for 2 months now.

[bukie]

My Next 25 in field (I miscounted, there are 25 not 24):

21. Houston

22. Arizona (Pac-12)

23. TCU

24. Butler

25. Seton Hall

26. Creighton

27. Texas A&M

28. Virginia Tech

29. Nevada

30. Arkansas

31. USC

32. Providence

33. Miami FL

34. Texas

35. Missouri

36. Alabama

37. NC State

38. Kansas State

39. UCLA

40. St Bonaventure

41. Rhode Island (A-10)

42. Louisville

43. Florida State

44. Oklahoma

45. Arizona State

 

I would slot the MWC champ behind Loyola, New Mexico State and Western Kentucky in the auto bid pecking order (so they would be 49, WKU 48, NMST 47, Loyola 46).

 

And the other 8 potential bubble teams in order for what turns out to be no available bids, unless we bump teams already in the field:

St Mary's

Middle Tennessee

New Mexico State

Notre Dame

Marquette

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Syracuse

 

Which means to me, NM State has to win the auto bid to get in the field.

[bukie]

UMBC won at Vermont to win the America East. Their profile is potentially first four worthy, they're about even with Radford.

[bukie]

Rhode Island trailing by 8 late in the first half of the A-10 semis.

[bukie]

UNC Central wins the MEAC. Welcome to the 68 seed, UNC Central.

[bukie]

Louisiana loses in the Sun Belt semis, leaving the winner as either UT Arlington, Georgia State or Georgia Southern.

[SouthSideRyan]

I’m not saying they belong but OK St and ASU have ridiculous wins

[bukie]

Today's results:

Virginia wins the ACC, easy #1 overall seed.

Villanova wins the Big East, easy #2 overall seed.

Kansas wins the Big 12, #1 seed solidified, maybe #3 overall now.

Cincy-Houston in the American final, no bid theft possible, though Houston may be higher than Wichita State now.

Rhode Island-Davidson in the A-10 final, Davidson could steal a bid. St. Bonaventure's profile takes a hit.

UT Arlington-Georgia State in the Sun Belt final.

Penn-Harvard in the Ivy final.

UMBC wins the America East, potential first four team.

UNC Central wins the MEAC, definite team #68.

Texas Southern wins the SWAC, definite team #67.

San Diego State wins the MVC, slotted in a lower end 12/higher end 13 seed.

Montana wins the Big SKy as expected.

Marshall wins the CUSA, another 12/13 seed.

Stephen F Austin wins the Southland, about the same profile as SE Louisiana, so same spot.

Kentucky-Tennessee in the SEC final, no bid thieves.

Buffalo wins the MAC as expected.

Big West, Pac-12, and WAC finals still ongoing.

[bukie]

New Mexico St wins the WAC.

[SouthSideRyan]

I do not like SD St, I’d drop them below Murray at least

[SouthSideRyan]

And should we slot Davidson somewhere tomorrow?

[bukie]

Yes, we should account for Davidson somewhere in the S-Curve, so we have a spot for Davidson should they win.

 

Also, Cal State Fullerton and Arizona won the Big West and Pac-12 respectively late last night.