Jump to content
Join us at 5pm Central time as we break down the Cubs' latest hot streak, and more! ×
North Side Baseball

Cubs arbitration eligibles

Transmogrified Tiger

By Transmogrified Tiger,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 32
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Actually, his was 4.3, they only missed him by 50k.

 

I really hope Dierkes is right on the file and trial stuff. Since Theo hasn't ever taken a guy to a hearing before, it'd mean we get all these guys signed today and we have a completely clear idea of exactly how much money we've got to throw at Darvish or whoever.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Hendricks gets 4.175, per Nightengale. Was projected at 4.9 by MLBTR.

 

Evidently, the deadline is 1PM EST, so just an hour left.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's crazy how good the MLBTR guy's model is for projecting these salaries. I know some of it is that teams and agents are using them as a benchmark to negotiate from, but that actually makes it even more impressive.
Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's crazy how good the MLBTR guy's model is for projecting these salaries. I know some of it is that teams and agents are using them as a benchmark to negotiate from, but that actually makes it even more impressive.

I really appreciate the time it must take them to do it and them putting it out there as a reference point but I don't think it's that hard to hit estimates within a reasonable margin of error. If they have a guy(s) taking the time to do it with the amount of information out there to compare similar players/past amounts I don't think it's crazy tough to find the 2-5 most similar comps for players and add a % increase for inflation/rising salary costs and hit in the ballpark of the final salary. I don't think it takes some super complex model.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's crazy how good the MLBTR guy's model is for projecting these salaries. I know some of it is that teams and agents are using them as a benchmark to negotiate from, but that actually makes it even more impressive.

I really appreciate the time it must take them to do it and them putting it out there as a reference point but I don't think it's that hard to hit estimates within a reasonable margin of error. If they have a guy(s) taking the time to do it with the amount of information out there to compare similar players/past amounts I don't think it's crazy tough to find the 2-5 most similar comps for players and add a % increase for inflation/rising salary costs and hit in the ballpark of the final salary. I don't think it takes some super complex model.

 

What makes it so impressive to me is how small that margin of error seems to be. I think building a decent model wouldn't be that tough, but this one goes above and beyond IMO. And while the sample is huge, when you're slicing and dicing by so many factors (position, service time, production) you end up with some pretty small cohorts for some guys.

 

Basically as someone who has generally failed when trying to build out these types of models, I've got a lot of respect.

Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's crazy how good the MLBTR guy's model is for projecting these salaries. I know some of it is that teams and agents are using them as a benchmark to negotiate from, but that actually makes it even more impressive.

I really appreciate the time it must take them to do it and them putting it out there as a reference point but I don't think it's that hard to hit estimates within a reasonable margin of error. If they have a guy(s) taking the time to do it with the amount of information out there to compare similar players/past amounts I don't think it's crazy tough to find the 2-5 most similar comps for players and add a % increase for inflation/rising salary costs and hit in the ballpark of the final salary. I don't think it takes some super complex model.

 

What makes it so impressive to me is how small that margin of error seems to be. I think building a decent model wouldn't be that tough, but this one goes above and beyond IMO. And while the sample is huge, when you're slicing and dicing by so many factors (position, service time, production) you end up with some pretty small cohorts for some guys.

 

Basically as someone who has generally failed when trying to build out these types of models, I've got a lot of respect.

Oh I agree and I certainly appreciate the amount of time it must take to do it. Just saying I don't think it would be that hard to do it if you take the crazy amount of time to do it that it would require.

Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
So who's left to sign? Russell Grimm and Bryant right?

 

Grimm is going to arbitration apparently.

 

Should have just non tendered him instead.

I wonder if we were fine going to the top end of what he'd get/request and we just tried to come in a decent amount lower since he sucked ass last year and feel a compelling argument can be made in our favor in arbitration if it goes there but if we "lose" it's not a crazy number to go to.

Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

Grimm is going to arbitration apparently.

 

Should have just non tendered him instead.

I wonder if we were fine going to the top end of what he'd get/request and we just tried to come in a decent amount lower since he sucked ass last year and feel a compelling argument can be made in our favor in arbitration if it goes there but if we "lose" it's not a crazy number to go to.

 

Grimm is also the most fungible player on the roster, so if he wins and if that dollar amount happened to be prohibitive(I doubt the max 1 million delta is gonna do it anyway), then you can cut him for an NRI without much lost.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

tf1g8MR.png

 

This is where I've got our payroll at right now. Obviously arbitration is hard to predict this far out so this isn't really perfect beyond 2018. For everyone who's already gone through arb I just gave them a 50% raise every year (the yellow/gold cells) and for the guys who haven't gone through it but will in 19/20 I just ballparked some numbers based on looking around at what guys are getting today (the dark orange cells).

 

Edit: I initially fat fingered Seal Boy

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Great breakdown. I thought insurance was 15 mill last year? Maybe I'm off on that though. I thought the rest of the 40 man comes in at 200k apiece, not 100% sure on that either. But, if I'm correct, it'd shave another 2.5 off the 35.9 we can spend. Of course, we can make most of it by cutting Grimm.

 

Still, assuming we'll save 7-10 mill for in season moves, it makes a Darvish signing pretty hard to fathom. Same with Jake.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Cubs community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of North Side Baseball.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    6,793
    Total Members
    13,056
    Most Online
    Kevin OBrien
    Newest Member
    Kevin OBrien
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...