Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers

[Backtobanks]

Can he pitch?

 

Probably good enough to be in the middle/back of our rotation.

[CyHawk_Cub]

[tweet]

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[Ding Dong Johnson]

ooh, now do offense!

[CyHawk_Cub]

ooh, now do offense!

 

Russell wRC+ 95

Machado wRC+ 153

[champaignchris]

It’s kind of weird that Machado is less valuable as a shortstop than as a 3rd baseman, but it looks like his defense there is just that bad.

 

bWAR, he and Russell have both put up 1.9 WAR seasons thus far. fWAR is 2.8 to 1.4. Even if you trust fWAR more than bWAR, that’s not enough difference to trade straight up, let alone Russell+ for half a year of Machado.

[Cubswin11]

It’s kind of weird that Machado is less valuable as a shortstop than as a 3rd baseman, but it looks like his defense there is just that bad.

 

How is that weird? He’s moving from the 4th or 5th hardest position to the hardest/most valuable for defense and he’s failing miserable at it. He isn’t a SS and the data is pretty clear on that.

[Sammy Sofa]

I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.

 

 

Slap hitting, average'ish defensive COF'er just won't fly.

[Cubswin11]

I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.

I’d rather have the guy who’s better at baseball

[Banedon]

I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.

 

Tim how do I delete all of the hearts I've ever given Sammy?

[Sammy Sofa]

I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.

 

 

Slap hitting, average'ish defensive COF'er just won't fly.

 

I love/hate this meme.

[imb]

I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.

 

i kinda feel the same way in an even smaller jokerman font

[Sammy Sofa]

I mean, obviously I wouldn't be bummed if they signed Harper, but to my super dumb eye there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado (and it all hinges on most definitely NOT signing Machado with the idea of him playing SS). BUT....I am always willing to learn!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman or punt SS defense entirely when you have multiple other options there, you gotta do it

[Cubswin11]

I mean, obviously I wouldn't be bummed if they signed Harper, but to my super dumb eye there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado (and it all hinges on most definitely NOT signing Machado with the idea of him playing SS). BUT....I am always willing to learn!

We’re signing the bat and not the defense is how I’m looking at it and Harper is just better at everything offensively. I know that’s a flawed way to look at it but Harper is just such a better hitter and I don’t care about the defense much (which makes the value close from a WAR perspective up to this point). A lot of Machado’s career WAR is tied up in defensive value at 3B. Bryant is plenty good there and it’s a marginal improvement on the defense and Bryant is a better hitter, Machado is ass at SS and Javy is probably better at 2B. This is a pure bat play for me since the defense is already great on the infield.

Edited June 15, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Sammy Sofa]

when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman

 

This seems even more debatable.

 

But again...willing to learn.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman

 

This seems even more debatable.

 

I will cut you

[Sammy Sofa]

I mean, obviously I wouldn't be bummed if they signed Harper, but to my super dumb eye there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado (and it all hinges on most definitely NOT signing Machado with the idea of him playing SS). BUT....I am always willing to learn!

We’re signing the bat and not the defense is how I’m looking at it and Harper is just better at everything offensively. I know that’s a flawed way to look at it but Harper is just such a better hitter

 

Is he......?

 

I know I'm opening myself up to be torn to shreds, but again, just doing a quick Fangraphs glance at the two of them it still doesn't seem like this crazy talent/value gap between them. Like, it feels kinda like this perception is based so much on Harper's insane 2015, which, hey, that's a thing that happened! I'm not saying ignore it, but....

 

Again, it's not like I'd think signing Harper would be a bad thing, but I guess I just kinda want to be sold that Harper is a such a, "d'uh, OF COURSE" kind of signing over Machado.

[Banedon]

when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman

 

This seems even more debatable.

 

But again...willing to learn.

 

Are you arguing that Machado is a better 3rd baseman than Bryant?

[imb]

i mean harper and machado are so alike (flukey injuries, this weird one year on one year off thing both do) that you probably wanna go for the higher ceiling guy in harper and just call it a day, but something about his last five years just bothers me. I'm sure it's just the concept of giving $300 million to a guy who has had one great year, a really good year broken up by injuries and then just a couple heyward seasons tossed in.

[Sammy Sofa]

when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman

 

This seems even more debatable.

 

But again...willing to learn.

 

Are you arguing that Machado is a better 3rd baseman than Bryant?

 

Defensively? Yes...I feel really nervous as to why this would be controversial, like I'm missing something painfully obvious.

[Sammy Sofa]

i mean harper and machado are so alike (flukey injuries, this weird one year on one year off thing both do) that you probably wanna go for the higher ceiling guy in harper and just call it a day, but something about his last five years just bothers me. I'm sure it's just the concept of giving $300 million to a guy who has had one great year, a really good year broken up by injuries and then just a couple heyward seasons tossed in.

 

Yeah, it's this kinda stuff, plus that he's generally talked about here like the Cubs would be a lock to be signing basically the next best thing to Trout, which seems to be overstating things just a wee bit.

[Cubswin11]

I mean, obviously I wouldn't be bummed if they signed Harper, but to my super dumb eye there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado (and it all hinges on most definitely NOT signing Machado with the idea of him playing SS). BUT....I am always willing to learn!

We’re signing the bat and not the defense is how I’m looking at it and Harper is just better at everything offensively. I know that’s a flawed way to look at it but Harper is just such a better hitter

 

Is he......?

 

I know I'm opening myself up to be torn to shreds, but again, just doing a quick Fangraphs glance at the two of them it still doesn't seem like this crazy talent/value gap between them. Like, it feels kinda like this perception is based so much on Harper's insane 2015, which, hey, that's a thing that happened! I'm not saying ignore it, but....

 

Again, it's not like I'd think signing Harper would be a bad thing, but I guess I just kinda want to be sold that Harper is a such a, "d'uh, OF COURSE" kind of signing over Machado.

Uh, yes.

 

Things Bryce Harper does better offensively than Manny Machado:

 

- Walk/Get on Base (14% vs 7% career BB Rate, .385 vs .333 career OBPs, .385 wOBA vs .348)

- Hit for Power ( .514 vs .484 SLG %, .234 vs .203 ISO, ~5% more medium and hard contact in his career, ~5% more line drives)

- Batting Average is a wash

 

 

The only thing Machado does better is K a little less and also Bryce hasn't blown out his knee twice.

[Sammy Sofa]

So why does Fangraphs seemingly not view there to be a huge difference between their value offensively (again, minus Harper's bat horsefeathers bonkers 2015)?

 

This largely seems like, as mentioned, the appeal of Harper's ceiling more than anything. Which, hey, makes sense! I just don't think signing Machado instead is this terrible consolation prize.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So why does Fangraphs seemingly not view there to be a huge difference between their value offensively (again, minus Harper's bat horsefeathers bonkers 2015)?

 

This largely seems like, as mentioned, the appeal of Harper's ceiling more than anything. Which, hey, makes sense! I just don't think signing Machado instead is this terrible consolation prize.

 

Both really came into their own offensively in 2015.

 

wOBA

 

Harper

15: .461

16: .343 (injury shortened)

17: .416 (injury shortened)

18: .361 (as discussed elsewhere, this looks likely to jump higher)

ZiPS Rest of Season: .389

Career: .381

 

Machado

15: .370

16: .366

17: .328

18: .395

ZiPS Rest of Season: .359

Career: .348

 

Machado is only equivalent with the bat if you think his first 10 weeks of 2018 are the new norm indefinitely. Considering Machado's defense is no longer a value add at all(which coincided with him maturing physically and his offense taking off), there's no reason to consider the overall package better unless you make that assumption either.