International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mmmm:

 

http://www.startribune.com/mlb-insider-teams-seeking-miguel-sano-like-talent-at-age-13/444896483/

 

“Teams are agreeing with players for 2020 now, that’s how far out it is,” Radcliff said. “Almost all of the best guys for next [July] are locked up already and off the market. And since everybody wants a [top player], to assure you get one, you have to move on to the next year, and the next one.”

 

Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

 

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.

[weis21]

Mmmm:

 

http://www.startribune.com/mlb-insider-teams-seeking-miguel-sano-like-talent-at-age-13/444896483/

 

“Teams are agreeing with players for 2020 now, that’s how far out it is,” Radcliff said. “Almost all of the best guys for next [July] are locked up already and off the market. And since everybody wants a [top player], to assure you get one, you have to move on to the next year, and the next one.”

 

Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

 

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.

 

Ha! I said this to my girl friend this morning almost verbatim when i was checking up on this thread. I said it just makes me cringe and seems weird

[Regular Show]

Mmmm:

 

http://www.startribune.com/mlb-insider-teams-seeking-miguel-sano-like-talent-at-age-13/444896483/

 

“Teams are agreeing with players for 2020 now, that’s how far out it is,” Radcliff said. “Almost all of the best guys for next [July] are locked up already and off the market. And since everybody wants a [top player], to assure you get one, you have to move on to the next year, and the next one.”

 

Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

 

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.

 

How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age.

 

Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time.

[CubsWin]

Mmmm:

 

http://www.startribune.com/mlb-insider-teams-seeking-miguel-sano-like-talent-at-age-13/444896483/

 

 

Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

 

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.

 

How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age.

 

Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time.

Don't get me wrong, this system where teams are having to scout younger and younger players to get handshake deals on kids that could be top prospects is weird and unfortunate, but where did the specific number of 12 years old come from? The article only went to 13 (not that that's any better) and math suggests that if they're looking for kids who will be eligible 2 years from now, they couldn't be any younger than 13 now. I'm truly asking, how did 12 come into this conversation?

[Regular Show]

 

Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

 

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.

 

How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age.

 

Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time.

Don't get me wrong, this system where teams are having to scout younger and younger players to get handshake deals on kids that could be top prospects is weird and unfortunate, but where did the specific number of 12 years old come from? The article only went to 13 (not that that's any better) and math suggests that if they're looking for kids who will be eligible 2 years from now, they couldn't be any younger than 13 now. I'm truly asking, how did 12 come into this conversation?

 

Raisin mentioned how icky it feels scouting 12-year old kids, and I've heard or read in other articles that some teams start scouting at that age. They come to agreements probably when they are 13 or 14, but they start scouting them way in advance of their signing year.

 

I mean it feels wrong either way like you said.

[CubsWin]

 

How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age.

 

Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time.

Don't get me wrong, this system where teams are having to scout younger and younger players to get handshake deals on kids that could be top prospects is weird and unfortunate, but where did the specific number of 12 years old come from? The article only went to 13 (not that that's any better) and math suggests that if they're looking for kids who will be eligible 2 years from now, they couldn't be any younger than 13 now. I'm truly asking, how did 12 come into this conversation?

 

Raisin mentioned how icky it feels scouting 12-year old kids, and I've heard or read in other articles that some teams start scouting at that age. They come to agreements probably when they are 13 or 14, but they start scouting them way in advance of their signing year.

 

I mean it feels wrong either way like you said.

And foolish like you said. It's got to be incredibly difficult to project a 12-year-old accurately. I mean, I guess if things take a turn for the worse with that PRE-TEEN (!!) the team he's committed to could always back out or drop their bonus offer, but still...

[davell]

Raisin, was there anything of note in Badler's new piece today? Evidently we're connected to an OF now?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Raisin, was there anything of note in Badler's new piece today? Evidently we're connected to an OF now?

 

The Cubs are linked to Dominican CF Jose Lopez. 5’10”, athletic, plus speed, strong arm and an above average tools with an unorthodox swing. He’s expected to get a bonus “north of $1 million.”

[Hrubes20]

Raisin, was there anything of note in Badler's new piece today? Evidently we're connected to an OF now?

 

The Cubs are linked to Dominican CF Jose Lopez. 5’10”, athletic, plus speed, strong arm and an above average tools with an unorthodox swing. He’s expected to get a bonus “north of $1 million.”

 

What specifically is unorthodox about it, or did they even mention it?

 

A 7 figure deal with this guy really takes a bit out of the available money.

[CubsWin]

Raisin, was there anything of note in Badler's new piece today? Evidently we're connected to an OF now?

 

The Cubs are linked to Dominican CF Jose Lopez. 5’10”, athletic, plus speed, strong arm and an above average tools with an unorthodox swing. He’s expected to get a bonus “north of $1 million.”

 

What specifically is unorthodox about it, or did they even mention it?

 

A 7 figure deal with this guy really takes a bit out of the available money.

You could call it a hitch, but he sort of extra loads his bat by raising his hands as the pitch is coming in. It's likely a timing mechanism for him, but as he faces higher velocities, it could cause him to be late. If he needs to make an adjustment, it doesn't seem like an overly difficult one to make.

 

[bbvideo=560,315]

[/bbvideo]

[CubsWin]

Here's the full game video of Gallardo:

 

[bbvideo=560,315]

[/bbvideo]

[CubsWin]

Not that it matters so much but how big is Gallardo? He looks like a Berrios starter kit with that delivery.

 

Interesting body type on that OF. I say interesting because it just looks like baby fat to me, something I have no issues with. Doesn't seem the Cubs do either with guys like Velazquez, Albertos, Paredes, Amaya, Assad, Faustino Carrera, Yonathan Perlaza....

Gallardo's 6'1", 187 lbs according to Badler.

[CubsWin]

Does anyone have any insight on how the new IFA bonus rules will likely affect the ability to trade for other team's IFA money?

 

-Are teams who previously didn't spend a lot on IFAs now more likely to do so?

-With the new hard cap, it seems IFA bonus money becomes all the more valuable. Any idea what type of player/prospect would have to be given up in order to get some?

-Are there any articles out there on this subject? I did a google search but didn't find any...

 

Here's a recap of the new rules:

 

Hard spending cap varies by team (All teams start with a $4.75 million cap, but clubs receiving first/second round sandwich “competitive balance” pick will receive an additional $500,000, and clubs receiving 2nd/3rd round sandwich “competitive balance” pick receive an additional $1 million).

 

Cap dollars tradeable (once signing period opens July 2)

 

Teams allowed to acquire up to 75 percent* of their cap in additional funds (I.E. a $4.75 million club would be able to acquire an additional $3.56 million for a total of $8.31 million) *This amount will be reduced to 60 percent starting in 2019–2020 period.

[craig]

Big-market Cubs wanted both Eloy and Gleyber, and could just pay tax.

Cubs spent more on Sierra than on Ademan, Amaya, or Albertos; but they were able to just pay tax and get all four. So nobody could leverage them much to trade for Ademan, Amaya, or Albertos dollars.

 

I assume the price will be way, way, way higher, now that big-market teams can't overspend. Way higher.

 

Plus I assume smaller-market teams (with finally a level, fair playing field) will have better reason to sign guys themselves. If you've got a fair chance to get good value by signing guys yourself, why trade your money away?

 

My guess is that the cost of cap space is going to be really, really high, and it will be very difficult to supplement.

 

Might be different late in the "year". Maybe some teams will ave some unspent leftover crumbs late that they might be willing to trade?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

We saw some cap space trades during the offseason by teams in the Ohtani hunt and that might be a good indicator since it was blatantly obvious Seattle, Anaheim and Texas valued that cap space for a specific player (which might be the case for teams that have their pool tied up already but are interested in the Cuban defectors who only recently turned up on the market).

 

It will also be interesting to see how much Atlanta can get for their cap space since it has no value to them while they're penalized.

[CubsWin]

We saw some cap space trades during the offseason by teams in the Ohtani hunt and that might be a good indicator since it was blatantly obvious Seattle, Anaheim and Texas valued that cap space for a specific player (which might be the case for teams that have their pool tied up already but are interested in the Cuban defectors who only recently turned up on the market).

 

It will also be interesting to see how much Atlanta can get for their cap space since it has no value to them while they're penalized.

I wondered about both points. The trades we saw for Ohtani money were done after most teams were done signing guys. I wonder if that made it easier to acquire and thus those trades might not be representative of the market value at the beginning of the signing period?

 

I know the Braves are limited to signing guys to contracts of no higher than $10,000 in 2019-20 and that their allotment was cut in half in 2020-21. I couldn't find anything on this coming season's penalty beyond the fact that they previously went over the limit and were under the same restrictions the Cubs were the last two years. Do you (or anyone)know how they're specifically restricted this signing period?

 

I also read that since the Braves can't sign anyone for over $10,000 next period (2019-20), that they basically had their allotment brought down to zero and won't have any bonus money to trade away that year. (Under the current rules, signings under $10,000 don't count towards the total allotment and can be unlimited in number). Is any of that accurate?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Cubs' bonus pool is $4,983,500. They can acquire up to 75% of their bonus slot, which means they can max out at $8,721,125.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-19-mlb-international-bonus-pools/

[CaliforniaRaisin]

None of these guys are linked to the cubs though Osiel Rodriguez isn’t linked to any teams yet. That said, Gallardo is apparently not expected to get $2 million:

 

Joe D: Who are your top 5 international prospect for the next July 2nd signing period?

12:23

 

Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I haven’t worked out exactly how we want to rank them, but the roughly $2M+ bonuses should be:

Diego Cartaya, C, VZ

Marco Luciano, SS, DR

Noelvi Marte, SS, DR

Orelvis Martinez, SS, DR

Alejandro Pie, SS, DR

Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba

Jose De La Cruz, OF, DR

12:24

 

Kiley McDaniel: There’s more at the ~$1.3M area and a couple of those may be more mid to high 1’s, but you get the idea

[davell]

I can't get anyone to answer a question on who's linked to Rodriguez. I remember seeing someone list some teams expected to spend heavily and the Cubs weren't mentioned. But, you can't take much from that, as it could have just been a list of teams that have already committed big money. I'm definitely hoping the Cubs find a way to snag Rodriguez. And seeing that Gallardo is getting under 2 mill definitely has me hopeful. Especially since there's teams out there that'll be willing to trade off money.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Sell off the entire Iowa Cubs roster for as much bonus $ as possible.

 

TBH, I figure that might be enough to buy a stadium hotdog & a domestic beer.

[Hrubes20]

I can't get anyone to answer a question on who's linked to Rodriguez. I remember seeing someone list some teams expected to spend heavily and the Cubs weren't mentioned. But, you can't take much from that, as it could have just been a list of teams that have already committed big money. I'm definitely hoping the Cubs find a way to snag Rodriguez. And seeing that Gallardo is getting under 2 mill definitely has me hopeful. Especially since there's teams out there that'll be willing to trade off money.

 

Yeah, it's weird that there hasn't been anything connecting Rodriguez to at least a few serious bidders yet.

[Hrubes20]

Mlb.com came out with their top 30 IFAs. They list the Cubs with Gallardo (5th) and Lopez (17), who we had heard about, but also have them on another LHP at the back end of the list named Joel Machado (28). That SS we heard them linked to, Rafael Morel, was not listed.

[davell]

Mlb.com came out with their top 30 IFAs. They list the Cubs with Gallardo (5th) and Lopez (17), who we had heard about, but also have them on another LHP at the back end of the list named Joel Machado (28). That SS we heard them linked to, Rafael Morel, was not listed.

 

If we're guessing pricetags, Gallardo at 1.3, Lopez at 1, Machado at 800k, and Morel at 500k. Again, these are obviously complete guesses. But, it's adding up to. 3.6, when we've basically got 5 mill. And obviously we've signed other guys too. The budget is probably spent.

 

Which means we'd have to acquire money to go get Rodriguez. Who's still not mentioned with a team. It won't surprise me if lots of teams are trying to acquire the 2+ mill it's going to take to sign him.

 

Pretty fun that Gallardo is 5th and Rodriguez 9th, in their rankings. Also, nice to see us listed with Machado.

 

Go get Rodriguez somehow and use the MLB draft for restocking hitting, at this point.

[Hrubes20]

Mlb.com came out with their top 30 IFAs. They list the Cubs with Gallardo (5th) and Lopez (17), who we had heard about, but also have them on another LHP at the back end of the list named Joel Machado (28). That SS we heard them linked to, Rafael Morel, was not listed.

 

If we're guessing pricetags, Gallardo at 1.3, Lopez at 1, Machado at 800k, and Morel at 500k. Again, these are obviously complete guesses. But, it's adding up to. 3.6, when we've basically got 5 mill. And obviously we've signed other guys too. The budget is probably spent.

 

Which means we'd have to acquire money to go get Rodriguez. Who's still not mentioned with a team. It won't surprise me if lots of teams are trying to acquire the 2+ mill it's going to take to sign him.

 

Pretty fun that Gallardo is 5th and Rodriguez 9th, in their rankings. Also, nice to see us listed with Machado.

 

Go get Rodriguez somehow and use the MLB draft for restocking hitting, at this point.

 

Yes on both. See what AAAA player the Orioles need to get in return for as much IFA money as possible.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Here’s the link if you want to read about Gallardo, Lopez or Machado: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=int

 

I like reading that Gallardo is considered to have good command and Machado is a strike thrower.